Angel Rivero — OGILVIE

Angel Rivero P FCL Blue Jays

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%20.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	10	35	152	38	9	0	91%	3.2	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.0%	4.93	2.60	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	10	35	152	38	9	0	91%	3.2	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.0%	4.93	2.60	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	10	35	152	38	9	0	91%	3.2	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	0.0%	4.93	1.69	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	11	11	36	162	42	16	1	100%	3.3	17.6%	12.3%	5.3%	1.0%	3.96	3.74	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	11	11	36	162	42	16	1	100%	3.3	17.6%	12.3%	5.3%	1.0%	3.96	3.74	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	11	11	36	162	42	16	1	100%	3.3	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	0.6%	3.96	2.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	12	55	244	62	29	8	80%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	3.62	5.89	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	12	55	244	62	29	8	80%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	3.62	5.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	LAA	12	9	42	181	52	23	3	75%	3.5	28.7%	12.7%	16.0%	1.7%	2.36	3.19	—
2026	19	A RAW	LAA	3	3	13	63	10	6	5	100%	4.2	15.9%	9.5%	6.3%	7.9%	7.82	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	56	237	50	23	7	100%	5.6	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.53	4.48	+0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	59	249	54	23	7	100%	5.4	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.41	4.34	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	62	262	60	23	7	100%	5.6	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	2.7%	4.26	4.16	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	64	271	64	23	7	100%	5.4	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.7%	4.13	4.03	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	66	278	67	23	7	100%	5.5	24.1%	8.2%	15.8%	2.6%	4.02	3.94	+0.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	282	69	23	7	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	2.6%	3.94	3.89	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	282	69	23	7	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.1%	16.6%	2.6%	3.89	3.86	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	277	68	23	7	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.90	+0.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	64	269	66	22	7	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+0.7
2027	20	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	28	118	25	12	3	100%	5.6	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	43	182	40	17	5	100%	5.4	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.8%	4.44	4.37	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	52	220	50	19	6	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.19	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	58	245	58	21	7	100%	5.3	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.7%	4.16	4.06	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	61	258	62	21	7	100%	5.5	24.1%	8.2%	15.8%	2.7%	4.05	3.97	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	62	262	64	21	7	100%	5.6	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	2.7%	3.97	3.92	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	63	266	65	21	7	100%	6.3	24.6%	8.1%	16.6%	2.7%	3.92	3.89	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	64	21	7	100%	6.2	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	63	21	7	100%	6.1	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.8%	3.98	4.02	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	490	2069	491	175	57	100%	5.6	23.7%	8.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.10	3.67	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	200	71	23	100%	5.5	23.7%	8.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.10	3.67	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		37	33	126	558	97	67	12	89%	3.4	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	2.2%	4.08	4.37	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	53	200	888	155	107	20	89%	3.4	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	2.2%	4.08	4.37	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	20.5%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.32	21.9%	12.6%	177	-0.33	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	87
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	86
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	86
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	85
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	85
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	84
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	84
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	83
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	83
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	82
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	82
Patricio Aquino R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	19	SP	4.24	21.9%	13.2%	2.4%	.321	3.95	15.1%	5.8%	234	-0.29	3.54	313	81
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	81
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	59	23.4%	8.6%	1.05	4.12
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93