Angel Rivero

P FCL Blue Jays

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1228ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKTOR	11	10	35	4.93	1.69	25.0%	5.9%	—	K 17.0% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.60
2025	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	11	11	36	3.96	2.47	25.9%	9.9%	—	K 17.6% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.74
2026	19	MIX2 levels	15	12	55	3.62	4.33	25.4%	11.9%	—	K 17.5% · BB 14.7% · FIP 5.89
2027PROJ	20	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.34	5.34	18.1%	13.2%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	21	MLBLAA	3	3	15	5.13	5.04	19.5%	11.8%	0.1
2029PROJ57% MLB	22	MLBLAA	4	4	24	4.88	4.74	20.9%	10.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 92%

CompsMoises Castillo (age 19) · Luis Hernandez (age 21) · Jharold Clemente (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%18.1%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	10	35	152	38	9	0	91%	3.2	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.0%	4.93	2.60	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	10	35	152	38	9	0	91%	3.2	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.0%	4.93	2.60	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	10	35	152	38	9	0	91%	3.2	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	0.0%	4.93	1.69	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	11	11	36	162	42	16	1	100%	3.3	17.6%	12.3%	5.3%	1.0%	3.96	3.74	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	11	11	36	162	42	16	1	100%	3.3	17.6%	12.3%	5.3%	1.0%	3.96	3.74	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	11	11	36	162	42	16	1	100%	3.3	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	0.6%	3.96	2.47	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	55	244	62	29	8	80%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	3.62	5.89	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	55	244	62	29	8	80%	3.6	17.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.4%	3.62	5.89	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	55	244	62	29	8	80%	3.6	25.4%	11.9%	13.5%	3.3%	3.62	4.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	13.2%	5.0%	3.1%	5.34	5.34	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	42	177	34	21	5	100%	5.2	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	3.1%	5.10	5.01	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	42	177	37	19	5	100%	5.2	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.71	+0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	42	179	39	18	5	100%	5.3	21.7%	9.9%	11.9%	3.0%	4.65	4.52	+0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	43	180	40	17	5	100%	5.3	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.50	4.39	+0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	42	177	40	16	5	100%	6.0	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.32	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	42	179	41	16	5	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.30	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	41	174	40	16	5	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAA	3	3	15	63	12	7	2	100%	5.0	19.5%	11.8%	7.7%	3.1%	5.13	5.04	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	24	101	21	11	3	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.74	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	30	127	28	13	4	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.9%	11.9%	3.0%	4.68	4.55	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	34	144	32	14	4	100%	5.7	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.42	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	35	148	34	13	4	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.35	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	37	156	36	14	5	100%	6.2	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.0%	4.36	4.33	+0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	37	156	36	14	5	100%	6.2	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	211	893	198	86	27	100%	5.6	22.1%	9.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.10	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	187	81	26	100%	5.6	22.1%	9.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.10	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		37	33	126	558	97	67	12	89%	3.4	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	2.2%	4.08	4.37	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	53	200	888	155	107	20	89%	3.4	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	2.2%	4.08	4.37	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 42 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.74 (+1.54)K% 28.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.73%	—	×0.680	19.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.71%	—	×1.250	15.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.32%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 13 IPFIP 7.32 → 9.19 (+1.87)K% 15.9% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.87%	—	×0.740	11.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.180	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	7.94%	÷1.000	×1.300	10.32%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.32 → 9.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Blue Jays Blue · 36 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.74 (+1.24)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.680	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.88%	—	×1.250	12.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷0.836	×1.400	1.03%

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Blue Jays · 35 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.60 (+0.86)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.92%	—	×1.250	7.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.892	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.75	20.7%	9.9%	126	-0.59	—	—	—
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	90
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	90
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	90
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	89
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	88
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	87
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	86
Jose Disla R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SP	5.52	15.8%	13.4%	3.8%	.296	4.49	19.7%	8.8%	70	-1.03	3.61	139	86
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	85
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	83
Bishop Letson R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	19	SP	4.80	16.4%	12.4%	2.8%	.222	4.00	20.2%	9.3%	132	-0.80	2.44	195	83
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.93	25.8%	12.5%	199	-0.41	3.66	273	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	83
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	41	21.5%	10.2%	1.15	4.67
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*