Adam Bates

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKBOS	11	9	36	3.96	3.60	23.8%	11.3%	—	K 16.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 5.12
2025	19	ASalem Red Sox	22	6	80	5.04	4.82	17.5%	15.9%	—	K 12.9% · BB 18.7% · FIP 5.88
2026	20	MIX2 levels	35	0	66	8.45	6.36	17.5%	18.7%	—	K 13.1% · BB 21.9% · FIP 7.02
2027PROJ	21	MLBBOS	—	—	0	6.83	6.83	11.1%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBOS	25	0	26	6.35	6.20	14.2%	17.4%	-0.5
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBOS	37	0	39	5.96	5.80	16.2%	15.8%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control20Command20

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJonny Cuevas (age 21) · Johan Moreno (age 21) · Miguel Mora (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 163155vR 147

ERA6.83

FIP6.83

K%11.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-8.9%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	2.9%	3.96	5.12	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	2.9%	3.96	5.12	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	23.8%	11.3%	12.6%	2.0%	3.96	3.60	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	12.9%	18.7%	-5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.88	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	12.9%	18.7%	-5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.88	—
2025	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	17.5%	15.9%	1.6%	1.9%	5.04	4.82	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	13.1%	21.9%	-8.8%	4.1%	8.45	7.02	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	13.1%	21.9%	-8.8%	4.1%	8.45	7.02	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	17.5%	18.7%	-1.2%	3.2%	8.45	6.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.1%	20.0%	-8.9%	3.2%	6.83	6.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	51	0	53	225	32	39	7	0%	1.0	14.2%	17.4%	-3.2%	3.1%	6.35	6.20	-0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	51	0	53	225	37	36	7	0%	1.0	16.2%	15.8%	0.4%	3.1%	5.96	5.80	-0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	51	0	53	225	39	33	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	3.0%	5.69	5.55	-0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	42	0	44	188	34	27	6	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.2%	3.7%	3.0%	5.52	5.42	-0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	42	0	44	187	34	26	6	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.2%	4.0%	3.0%	5.45	5.40	-0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	41	0	43	183	33	26	6	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.1%	5.44	5.43	-0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	41	0	43	181	36	25	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	3.2%	5.33	5.25	-0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	38	0	40	171	34	24	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.36	5.38	-0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	36	0	37	158	31	22	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.1%	5.3%	3.5%	5.48	5.56	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	25	0	26	110	16	19	3	0%	1.0	14.2%	17.4%	-3.2%	3.1%	6.35	6.20	-0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	37	0	39	165	27	26	5	0%	1.1	16.2%	15.8%	0.4%	3.1%	5.96	5.80	-0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	42	0	44	186	32	28	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	3.0%	5.69	5.55	-0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	37	0	39	165	30	23	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.2%	3.7%	3.0%	5.52	5.42	-0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	31	24	5	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.2%	4.0%	3.0%	5.45	5.40	-0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	31	24	5	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.3%	3.9%	3.1%	5.44	5.43	-0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	38	0	40	169	34	23	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.6%	6.4%	3.2%	5.33	5.25	-0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	36	0	38	160	32	22	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.36	5.38	-0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	34	0	36	152	30	21	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.1%	5.3%	3.5%	5.48	5.56	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		327	0	343	1449	262	212	45	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.6%	3.4%	3.1%	5.59	5.15	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	124	26	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.6%	3.4%	3.1%	5.59	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		68	15	183	865	117	166	29	22%	2.7	13.6%	19.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	6.06	6.20	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	16	200	947	129	181	31	22%	2.7	13.6%	19.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	6.06	6.20	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 44 IPFIP 5.15 → 6.45 (+1.30)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.740	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.02%	—	×1.180	21.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.15 → 6.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 22 IPFIP 6.86 → 8.06 (+1.19)K% 12.5% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.770	9.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.150	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.86 → 8.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 80 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.88 (+1.22)K% 17.5% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.47%	—	×0.740	12.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.86%	—	×1.180	18.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷0.891	×1.300	2.74%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 36 IPFIP 3.60 → 5.12 (+1.51)K% 23.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.84%	—	×0.680	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.26%	—	×1.250	14.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.952	×1.400	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Bates (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.83	11.1%	20.0%	3.2%	—	5.85	15.9%	-0.1%	160	-0.98	—	—	—
Jonny Cuevas R 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	12.3%	18.2%	2.7%	.281	4.58	13.6%	2.6%	225	-1.25	4.37	334	89
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	88
Miguel Mora R 2023 · 6.90 FIP	21	SU	6.90	10.5%	26.8%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	151	86
Joel Pineiro R 2000 · 5.71 FIP	21	SU	5.71	10.6%	13.8%	3.2%	.324	3.81	17.3%	9.9%	481	-1.90	2.76	1,831	83
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	82
Sean Gallagher R 2007 · 6.81 FIP	21	SU	6.81	6.8%	16.2%	4.0%	.296	4.41	18.0%	6.2%	193	-2.40	3.89	207	81
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	81
Fabricio Reina R 2021 · 6.88 FIP	21	SW	6.88	12.6%	27.2%	2.5%	.224	5.16	17.4%	-2.0%	28	-1.72	3.76	191	81
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	80
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	80
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	79
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	79
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	78
Luis Talavera R 2023 · 5.76 FIP	21	SU	5.76	11.5%	16.9%	2.7%	.284	4.66	9.8%	-5.0%	30	-1.10	3.22	212	78
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	78
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	78
Leomar Rosario R 2023 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	14.5%	26.7%	1.4%	.310	5.64	21.1%	-5.2%	90	-0.36	4.95	134	77
Patrick Murphy R 2016 · 6.18 FIP	21	SW	6.18	14.9%	16.7%	4.1%	.339	3.85	16.1%	6.7%	319	-2.33	3.08	556	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	46	17.1%	15.3%	1.21	5.77
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*