Adam Bates — OGILVIE

Adam Bates P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 162154vR 146

ERA6.80

FIP6.80

K%11.8%

BB%21.3%

K-BB%-9.5%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	2.9%	3.96	5.12	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	16.2%	14.1%	2.1%	2.9%	3.96	5.12	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	9	36	151	36	17	3	82%	3.3	23.8%	11.3%	12.6%	2.0%	3.96	3.60	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	12.9%	18.7%	-5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.88	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	12.9%	18.7%	-5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.88	—
2025	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	6	80	372	65	59	7	27%	3.7	17.5%	15.9%	1.6%	1.9%	5.04	4.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	13.1%	21.9%	-8.8%	4.1%	8.45	7.02	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	35	0	66	342	60	64	11	0%	1.9	13.1%	21.9%	-8.8%	4.1%	8.45	7.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	BOS	24	0	44	222	45	40	6	0%	1.8	20.3%	18.0%	2.3%	2.7%	7.83	5.15	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	BOS	11	0	22	120	15	24	5	0%	2.0	12.5%	20.0%	-7.5%	4.2%	9.67	6.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	72	0	76	320	46	60	9	0%	1.1	14.3%	18.6%	-4.4%	2.9%	6.36	6.23	-1.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	76	0	80	337	55	56	10	0%	1.0	16.4%	16.6%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.94	5.76	-1.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	79	0	83	349	62	54	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	15.4%	2.3%	2.8%	5.63	5.47	-0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	81	0	85	358	66	52	10	0%	1.0	18.4%	14.6%	3.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.30	-0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	82	0	86	363	68	51	10	0%	1.0	18.8%	14.1%	4.6%	2.8%	5.29	5.21	-0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	82	0	86	363	69	51	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.1%	4.9%	2.8%	5.23	5.19	-0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	81	0	85	357	68	51	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.2%	4.8%	2.8%	5.23	5.22	-0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	78	0	82	347	65	50	10	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	2.9%	5.28	5.31	-0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	75	0	78	331	68	46	10	0%	1.0	20.6%	13.8%	6.8%	3.1%	5.21	5.17	-0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	70	0	74	311	63	44	10	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.1%	6.2%	3.3%	5.29	5.35	-0.7
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	35	0	37	156	22	29	5	0%	1.1	14.3%	18.6%	-4.4%	2.9%	6.36	6.23	-0.7
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	55	0	58	245	40	41	7	0%	1.1	16.4%	16.6%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.94	5.76	-0.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	67	0	70	296	52	45	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	15.4%	2.3%	2.8%	5.63	5.47	-0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	72	0	76	321	59	47	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.6%	3.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.30	-0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	75	0	79	334	63	47	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.1%	4.6%	2.8%	5.29	5.21	-0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	76	0	80	338	64	48	9	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.1%	4.9%	2.8%	5.23	5.19	-0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	76	0	80	338	64	48	10	0%	1.1	19.0%	14.2%	4.8%	2.8%	5.23	5.22	-0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	74	0	78	329	62	47	10	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	2.9%	5.28	5.31	-0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	74	312	64	43	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.8%	6.8%	3.1%	5.21	5.17	-0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	67	0	70	296	60	42	10	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.1%	6.2%	3.3%	5.29	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		669	0	702	2966	551	437	86	0%	1.1	18.6%	14.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.43	4.98	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	124	24	0%	1.1	18.6%	14.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.43	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		68	15	183	865	117	166	29	22%	2.7	13.6%	19.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	6.06	6.20	-8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	16	200	947	129	181	31	22%	2.7	13.6%	19.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	6.06	6.20	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Bates (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.80	11.8%	21.3%	3.0%	—	5.81	16.2%	-0.7%	238	-0.99	—	—	—
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	91
Ismael Maldonado R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	20	SU	5.87	9.8%	16.4%	2.8%	.280	6.60	13.5%	-3.6%	89	+0.73	5.87	119	91
Jonny Cuevas R 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	12.3%	18.2%	2.7%	.281	4.59	13.5%	2.6%	225	-1.24	4.38	334	90
Alexis Liebano R 2023 · 6.15 FIP	20	SU	6.15	11.8%	24.2%	1.8%	.312	6.00	17.7%	3.8%	112	-0.15	4.80	142	88
Elvis Jerez R 2019 · 6.39 FIP	19	SU	6.39	14.2%	22.8%	2.9%	.292	3.52	27.9%	8.0%	50	-2.87	3.13	109	87
Reny Artiles R 2022 · 7.65 FIP	20	SW	7.65	10.3%	32.7%	2.3%	.298	4.92	16.4%	-0.9%	80	-2.73	4.34	165	86
Dominic Hambley R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	20	SW	5.81	16.4%	20.4%	2.8%	.318	4.66	17.9%	-4.3%	73	-1.15	4.44	131	83
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	83
Biembenido Brito R 2023 · 5.98 FIP	20	SU	5.98	15.0%	24.8%	1.8%	.325	5.12	20.2%	2.1%	65	-0.86	3.58	130	82
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	81
Leomar Rosario R 2023 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	14.5%	26.7%	1.4%	.310	5.64	21.1%	-5.2%	90	-0.36	4.95	134	81
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	80
Chase Chaney R 2019 · 6.31 FIP	19	SW	6.31	9.4%	22.3%	2.1%	.282	2.97	16.8%	11.0%	128	-3.34	2.72	599	80
Andy Santana R 2019 · 5.79 FIP	19	SU	5.79	10.6%	17.2%	2.6%	.320	4.75	12.2%	1.4%	67	-1.04	3.88	143	80
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	80
Fernando Caro R 2017 · 5.77 FIP	20	SU	5.77	10.9%	20.8%	1.7%	.280	3.51	12.8%	1.0%	40	-2.26	3.51	161	79
Pedro Peralta R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	17	SU	6.77	15.3%	22.9%	3.8%	.300	6.07	14.3%	-7.4%	106	-0.70	5.13	121	79
Jose G. Gonzalez R 2022 · 5.86 FIP	20	SU	5.86	13.8%	18.3%	2.9%	.357	4.91	14.6%	-1.0%	108	-0.95	3.63	165	78
Samuel Valerio R 2022 · 6.13 FIP	20	SW	6.13	16.6%	24.9%	2.3%	.350	5.64	23.3%	-1.1%	54	-0.49	4.00	117	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	78	18.0%	15.3%	1.12	5.55
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98