Adam Bates
P
Salem RidgeYaks
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2032
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 169160vR 151
ERA6.74
FIP6.74
K%11.8%
BB%20.5%
K-BB%-8.7%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 11 | 9 | 36 | 151 | 36 | 17 | 3 | 82% | 3.3 | 16.2% | 14.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.96 | 5.20 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 11 | 9 | 36 | 151 | 36 | 17 | 3 | 82% | 3.3 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 2.0% | 3.96 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 6 | 80 | 372 | 65 | 59 | 7 | 27% | 3.7 | 12.9% | 18.7% | -5.8% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 6.09 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 6 | 80 | 372 | 65 | 59 | 7 | 27% | 3.7 | 17.5% | 15.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 5.04 | 4.82 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 26 | 0 | 47 | 239 | 47 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 15.0% | 21.3% | -6.3% | 3.5% | 7.28 | 6.45 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 23 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 20.5% | -8.7% | 3.0% | 6.74 | 6.74 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.8% | 20.5% | -8.7% | 3.0% | 6.74 | 6.74 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 93 | 433 | 70 | 83 | 13 | — | — | 16.1% | 19.1% | -3.0% | 3.0% | 7.01 | 6.60 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 29 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 18.0% | -3.7% | 3.0% | 6.31 | 6.18 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 35 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 5.91 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 14 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.3% | 18.0% | -3.7% | 3.0% | 6.31 | 6.18 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 5.91 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 40 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 16.9% | -1.3% | 2.9% | 6.07 | 5.53 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 132 | 142 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 16.9% | -1.3% | 2.9% | 6.07 | 5.53 | -0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 15 | 164 | 762 | 108 | 142 | 25 | 25% | 2.8 | 14.2% | 18.6% | -4.4% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 6.03 | -1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 18 | 200 | 931 | 133 | 173 | 30 | 25% | 2.8 | 14.2% | 18.6% | -4.4% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 6.03 | -1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Bates (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.74 | 11.8% | 20.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.95 | 15.4% | -1.7% | 99 | -0.79 | — | — | — |
| Ismael Maldonado R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.87 | 9.8% | 16.4% | 2.8% | .280 | 6.60 | 13.5% | -3.6% | 89 | +0.73 | 5.87 | 119 | 91 |
| Jose Pena Jr. R 2026 · 6.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 6.63 | 13.6% | 25.8% | 2.6% | .292 | 3.75 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 116 | -2.88 | 3.45 | 176 | 90 |
| Jonny Cuevas R 2027 · 5.93 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.93 | 12.3% | 18.2% | 2.8% | .281 | 4.51 | 13.6% | 2.5% | 225 | -1.42 | 4.27 | 313 | 89 |
| Alexis Liebano R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 6.12 | 11.8% | 24.2% | 1.7% | .312 | 5.87 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 112 | -0.25 | 4.80 | 142 | 86 |
| Reny Artiles R 2026 · 7.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 7.63 | 10.3% | 32.7% | 2.3% | .298 | 5.07 | 16.4% | -0.9% | 80 | -2.56 | 3.91 | 165 | 86 |
| Elvis Jerez R 2025 · 6.39 FIP | 19 | SU | 6.39 | 14.2% | 22.8% | 2.9% | .292 | 3.46 | 27.9% | 8.0% | 50 | -2.93 | 3.13 | 109 | 86 |
| Dominic Hambley R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.81 | 16.4% | 20.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 4.69 | 17.9% | -4.3% | 73 | -1.12 | 4.49 | 131 | 83 |
| Joe Barlow R 2026 · 6.15 FIP | 20 | SW | 6.15 | 13.6% | 16.4% | 3.9% | .269 | 3.64 | 29.5% | 10.7% | 116 | -2.51 | 3.04 | 354 | 83 |
| Marco Patino R 2026 · 6.87 FIP | 20 | SU | 6.87 | 6.6% | 20.3% | 3.2% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.03 | 107 | 82 |
| Austin Amaral R 2028 · 5.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.80 | 12.1% | 14.4% | 3.4% | .254 | 3.65 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 99 | -2.15 | 3.55 | 122 | 81 |
| Chase Chaney R 2025 · 6.31 FIP | 19 | SW | 6.31 | 9.4% | 22.3% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.03 | 16.8% | 11.0% | 128 | -3.28 | 2.72 | 599 | 81 |
| Biembenido Brito R 2026 · 5.88 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.88 | 15.0% | 24.8% | 1.7% | .325 | 5.06 | 20.2% | 2.1% | 65 | -0.82 | 3.58 | 130 | 81 |
| Juan Soto R 2026 · 6.40 FIP | 20 | SW | 6.40 | 8.9% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | 102 | 81 |
| Yanzel Correa R 2026 · 6.99 FIP | 20 | SU | 6.99 | 11.1% | 19.4% | 4.3% | .346 | 3.55 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 38 | -3.44 | 3.55 | 103 | 80 |
| Darlin Pinales R 2026 · 6.67 FIP | 20 | SW | 6.67 | 17.0% | 27.6% | 2.8% | .350 | 4.37 | 22.6% | 1.2% | 101 | -2.30 | 3.49 | 198 | 79 |
| Leudy Martinez R 2025 · 5.99 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.99 | 15.2% | 22.0% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 116 | 79 |
| Leomar Rosario R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.84 | 14.5% | 26.7% | 1.1% | .310 | 5.74 | 21.5% | -4.2% | 75 | -0.10 | 4.94 | 118 | 79 |
| Andy Santana R 2025 · 5.79 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.79 | 10.6% | 17.2% | 2.6% | .320 | 4.71 | 12.2% | 1.4% | 67 | -1.08 | 3.98 | 143 | 79 |
| Alison Zacarias R 2026 · 7.71 FIP | 20 | SW | 7.71 | 10.1% | 29.6% | 3.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 105 | 79 |
| Feliberto Bonilla R 2026 · 6.37 FIP | 20 | SW | 6.37 | 9.8% | 17.4% | 3.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.13 | 151 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 14.2% | 18.1% | 1.15 | 6.31 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |