Luis Talavera — OGILVIE

Luis Talavera P Salem Red Sox

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	14	7	57	256	40	31	1	50%	4.1	10.6%	15.1%	-4.5%	0.5%	4.42	4.42	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	14	7	57	256	40	31	1	50%	4.1	15.6%	12.1%	3.5%	0.4%	4.42	3.56	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	15	1	31	127	25	10	0	7%	2.0	13.4%	9.8%	3.5%	0.0%	1.76	3.22	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	15	1	31	127	25	10	0	7%	2.0	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	0.0%	1.76	2.45	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	51	203	25	14	3	0%	3.2	10.2%	6.5%	3.7%	1.9%	2.81	4.12	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	51	203	25	14	3	0%	3.2	12.3%	6.9%	5.4%	1.5%	2.81	3.70	—
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	28	0	54	238	37	34	5	0%	1.9	11.5%	16.9%	-5.4%	2.7%	4.83	5.76	—
2023	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	28	0	54	238	37	34	5	0%	1.9	15.5%	14.3%	1.3%	2.1%	4.83	4.82	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	32	159	22	20	1	0%	1.5	9.8%	14.8%	-5.0%	0.9%	6.19	4.66	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	32	159	22	20	1	0%	1.5	9.8%	14.8%	-5.0%	0.9%	6.19	4.66	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	32	159	22	20	1	0%	1.5	13.8%	12.6%	1.3%	0.6%	6.19	4.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	17	0	18	76	16	8	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		95	8	225	983	108	128	13	8%	2.4	11.0%	13.0%	-2.1%	1.4%	4.04	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	7	200	874	96	114	12	8%	2.4	11.0%	13.0%	-2.1%	1.4%	4.04	4.57	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Talavera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.1%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.68	21.5%	10.6%	20	-0.06	—	—	—
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	83
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	82
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	80
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	80
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	80
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	80
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	80
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	79
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	79
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	79
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	79
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	79
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	79
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	78