Dylan Simmons — OGILVIE

Dylan Simmons P Dayton Dragons

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 60 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%12.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%-1.8%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	51	224	53	18	4	0%	1.9	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	1.9%	4.24	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	51	224	53	18	4	0%	1.9	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	1.9%	4.24	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	51	224	53	18	4	0%	1.9	23.7%	8.0%	15.6%	1.8%	4.24	3.10	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	34	0	51	223	37	23	3	0%	1.5	12.8%	11.9%	0.9%	1.5%	5.51	4.34	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	34	0	51	223	37	23	3	0%	1.5	12.8%	11.9%	0.9%	1.5%	5.51	4.34	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	34	0	51	223	37	23	3	0%	1.5	16.6%	10.3%	6.3%	1.3%	5.51	3.77	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	17	0	23	110	18	12	5	0%	1.4	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	5.7%	6.17	6.74	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	17	0	23	110	18	12	5	0%	1.4	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	5.7%	6.17	6.74	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	17	0	23	110	18	12	5	0%	1.4	16.4%	10.9%	5.5%	4.5%	6.17	5.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	57	0	60	253	30	35	8	0%	1.1	12.0%	13.8%	-1.8%	3.1%	5.90	5.90	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	56	0	59	247	32	33	8	0%	1.0	13.1%	13.4%	-0.3%	3.1%	5.76	5.78	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	54	0	57	240	33	32	8	0%	1.1	13.7%	13.2%	0.5%	3.2%	5.71	5.75	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	20	0	21	89	12	12	3	0%	1.1	13.1%	13.4%	-0.3%	3.1%	5.76	5.78	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	31	0	33	139	19	18	4	0%	1.1	13.7%	13.2%	0.5%	3.2%	5.71	5.75	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	232	31	31	7	0%	1.1	13.5%	13.3%	0.2%	3.2%	5.73	5.38	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	113	113	25	0%	1.1	13.5%	13.3%	0.2%	3.2%	5.73	5.38	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		78	0	125	557	82	61	14	0%	1.6	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	2.5%	5.11	4.62	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		125	0	200	891	132	98	22	0%	1.6	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	2.5%	5.11	4.62	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Simmons (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	12.0%	13.8%	3.1%	—	5.77	13.4%	0.1%	115	-0.13	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	86
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	85
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	85
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	84
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	84
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	83
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	83
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	83
Nate Bump R 2003 · 4.74 FIP	27	SU	4.74	10.2%	12.0%	1.8%	.244	4.27	12.5%	5.5%	112	-0.47	4.06	148	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	82
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	82
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	80
Jason Jester R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	26	SU	4.94	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.311	2.88	17.6%	12.5%	60	-2.06	2.48	229	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	80
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	79
Marc Magliaro R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	26	SU	4.77	9.1%	10.1%	2.1%	.302	3.98	17.1%	10.6%	110	-0.79	3.94	125	79
Will Carter R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	26	SU	4.93	11.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.278	3.93	20.3%	4.6%	67	-1.00	3.15	335	79
Norman Elenes R 2017 · 5.06 FIP	25	SU	5.06	10.4%	14.5%	1.8%	.324	5.35	7.8%	-1.5%	37	+0.29	3.87	169	79
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	12.9%	13.5%	1.21	5.79
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09