Dylan Simmons
P
Dayton Dragons
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.0%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF3030
CTRL4040
CMD3030
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 27 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 53 | 18 | 4 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 4.24 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 34 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 37 | 23 | 3 | 12.8% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 5.51 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 38 | 26 | 6 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 54 | 225 | 42 | 27 | 6 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 39 | 25 | 6 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 40 | 25 | 6 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 40 | 24 | 6 | 18.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 39 | 24 | 6 | 18.9% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 35 | 23 | 6 | 18.4% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 33 | 22 | 6 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 31 | 21 | 6 | 17.9% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 17.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 27 | 20 | 5 | 17.1% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 5.39 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 16.7% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 5.52 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 105 | 458 | 72 | 49 | 8 | 15.8% | 10.6% | 1.6% | 4.82 | 4.01 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 0 | 200 | 875 | 138 | 94 | 15 | 15.8% | 10.6% | 1.6% | 4.82 | 4.01 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Simmons (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.89 | 18.6% | 7.0% | 151 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.63 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.06 | 4.58 | 151 | 93 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 92 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.26 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 111 | 90 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.61 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 116 | 89 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .273 | 2.95 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -2.21 | 2.59 | 302 | 89 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 89 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .293 | 3.40 | 12.8% | 1.8% | 17 | -0.56 | 3.40 | 134 | 89 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.35 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 129 | +0.12 | 3.93 | 258 | 88 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .338 | 3.89 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.64 | 3.89 | 143 | 88 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 88 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .315 | 4.08 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 107 | +0.02 | 4.04 | 214 | 88 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 88 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .321 | 2.58 | 27.5% | 18.5% | 46 | -2.26 | 2.58 | 199 | 88 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 88 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 88 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.05 | 3.49 | 237 | 88 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.17 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 141 | 87 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 124 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 87 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 218 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.