Dylan Simmons
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.54
FIP5.54
K%12.7%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%-0.5%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 53 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 4.24 | 3.73 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 53 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 1.8% | 4.24 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 34 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 37 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 12.8% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 5.51 | 4.26 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 34 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 37 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.6% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 5.51 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 17 | 0 | 23 | 110 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.6% | 12.5% | 0.1% | 5.7% | 6.17 | 6.74 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 37 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 13.1% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.7% | 13.1% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 5.54 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 93 | 406 | 55 | 51 | 13 | — | — | 13.7% | 12.5% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 5.70 | 5.84 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.7% | 13.1% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 43 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 44 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 124 | 524 | 80 | 66 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.94 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 129 | 106 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 125 | 557 | 82 | 61 | 13 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 5.11 | 4.54 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 0 | 200 | 891 | 132 | 98 | 21 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 5.11 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Simmons (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.54 | 12.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | — | 5.32 | 15.2% | 2.7% | 206 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 88 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 87 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 86 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 86 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 86 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 85 |
| Scott Griggs R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 11.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.01 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 112 | -1.07 | 3.06 | 176 | 85 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 84 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .279 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 167 | -0.26 | 4.02 | 328 | 84 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .285 | 5.19 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.48 | 4.65 | 113 | 84 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 83 |
| Rob Huber R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 83 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.47 | 13.2% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .330 | 5.36 | 16.5% | -2.2% | 23 | +0.89 | 4.47 | 132 | 83 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 15.1% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 145 | 83 |
| Kender Villegas R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 131 | 83 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 9.3% | 13.4% | 0.9% | .283 | 4.41 | 12.1% | 1.7% | 119 | -0.08 | 4.00 | 181 | 83 |
| Starling Peralta R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 9.9% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 117 | 82 |
| Zach Nuding R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 82 |
| Nick Highberger R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.72 | 12.4% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .279 | 6.25 | 15.0% | -1.7% | 95 | +1.53 | 3.81 | 249 | 82 |
| Claudio Custodio R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.31 | 11.1% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .351 | 3.73 | 11.5% | 4.8% | 37 | -1.58 | 3.14 | 186 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 14.6% | 12.7% | 1.07 | 5.37 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |