Luke Bell

P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	33	0	49	3.65	2.49	27.0%	8.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.62
2025	24	MIX2 levels	38	1	58	4.94	4.81	17.1%	10.9%	—	K 14.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.78
2026	25	MIX3 levels	18	0	32	7.39	4.68	18.9%	9.1%	—	K 9.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 5.40
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	1	0	1	5.82	5.82	12.0%	13.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCWS	15	0	16	5.69	5.71	13.1%	12.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCWS	20	0	21	5.64	5.69	13.8%	12.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Roman Phansalkar (age 26) · Tyler Mizenko (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 127

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%12.0%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	1.15	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	0.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	1.8%	3.65	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	1.8%	3.65	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	27.0%	8.8%	18.1%	1.0%	3.65	2.49	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.4%	4.94	5.78	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.4%	4.94	5.78	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.1%	4.94	4.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	9.9%	12.1%	-2.2%	2.9%	7.39	5.40	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	9.9%	12.1%	-2.2%	2.9%	7.39	5.40	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.5%	7.39	4.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	12.0%	13.1%	-1.1%	3.1%	5.82	5.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	40	0	42	177	23	23	6	0%	1.1	13.1%	12.8%	0.3%	3.1%	5.69	5.71	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	33	0	35	148	20	19	5	0%	1.1	13.8%	12.7%	1.1%	3.2%	5.64	5.69	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	0	16	68	9	9	2	0%	1.1	13.1%	12.8%	0.3%	3.1%	5.69	5.71	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	20	0	21	89	12	11	3	0%	1.1	13.8%	12.7%	1.1%	3.2%	5.64	5.69	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	155	21	20	5	0%	1.0	13.5%	12.7%	0.8%	3.2%	5.66	5.31	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	115	109	27	0%	1.1	13.5%	12.7%	0.8%	3.2%	5.66	5.31	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		95	1	145	631	101	70	19	1%	1.5	16.1%	11.0%	5.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	1	200	872	140	96	26	1%	1.5	16.1%	11.0%	5.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	-2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 16 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.40 (+0.60)K% 12.2% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.20%	—	×0.810	9.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.100	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 10 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.23 (+1.13)K% 30.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.770	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 6 IPFIP 5.97 → 6.64 (+0.67)K% 24.0% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.860	20.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×0.900	3.60%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	8.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.97 → 6.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 50 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.78 (+1.18)K% 18.4% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.43%	—	×0.770	14.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×1.150	11.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.923	×1.250	4.37%

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 9 IPFIP 5.47 → 5.18 (−0.29)K% 9.8% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.76%	—	×0.860	8.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.63%	—	×0.900	13.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.320	×1.100	2.03%

Result: FIP 5.47 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 44 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.62 (+1.16)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.53%	—	×0.740	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.180	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷0.820	×1.300	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 5 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.28 (+0.67)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.770	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.150	13.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.817	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL White Sox · 5 IPFIP 1.15 → 2.33 (+1.18)K% 34.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.62%	—	×0.680	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.250	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷2.194	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 339).

Result: FIP 1.15 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Bell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	12.0%	13.1%	3.1%	—	5.70	13.4%	0.7%	77	-0.12	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	86
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	85
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	85
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	84
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	84
Nate Bump R 2003 · 4.74 FIP	27	SU	4.74	10.2%	12.0%	1.8%	.244	4.27	12.5%	5.5%	112	-0.47	4.06	148	83
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Jason Jester R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	26	SU	4.94	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.311	2.88	17.6%	12.5%	60	-2.06	2.48	229	82
Pat Light R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	11.8%	14.1%	1.4%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	172	82
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	81
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	81
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	81
Marc Magliaro R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	26	SU	4.77	9.1%	10.1%	2.1%	.302	3.98	17.1%	10.6%	110	-0.79	3.94	125	80
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	80
Nick Mikolajchak R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	26	SU	4.81	13.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.286	6.79	13.1%	2.3%	42	+1.98	3.96	168	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	12.8%	12.9%	1.21	5.73
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*