Luke Bell — OGILVIE

Luke Bell P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%14.5%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	1.15	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	1.15	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	6	0	5	26	9	2	0	0%	0.9	34.6%	7.7%	26.9%	0.0%	1.69	0.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	1.8%	3.65	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	1.8%	3.65	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	49	204	55	18	2	0%	1.5	27.0%	8.8%	18.1%	1.0%	3.65	2.49	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.4%	4.94	5.78	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	14.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.4%	4.94	5.78	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	58	258	44	28	8	3%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.1%	4.94	4.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	9.9%	12.1%	-2.2%	2.9%	7.39	5.40	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	18	0	32	143	27	13	5	0%	1.8	9.9%	12.1%	-2.2%	2.9%	7.39	5.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CWS	6	0	10	36	11	3	1	0%	1.6	30.6%	8.3%	22.2%	2.8%	1.86	3.10	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CWS	10	0	16	82	10	9	2	0%	1.6	12.2%	11.0%	1.2%	2.4%	9.92	4.80	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CWS	2	0	6	25	6	1	2	0%	2.9	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	8.0%	9.53	5.97	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CWS	5	0	5	23	3	3	1	0%	1.1	14.5%	12.8%	1.7%	3.2%	5.61	5.61	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	37	166	30	16	6	—	—	18.3%	9.6%	8.7%	3.4%	7.13	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	251	40	31	8	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.4%	3.7%	3.1%	5.44	5.42	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	56	0	59	247	41	30	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.2%	4.4%	3.2%	5.36	5.37	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	18	14	3	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.4%	3.7%	3.1%	5.44	5.42	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	35	0	37	156	26	19	5	0%	1.1	16.6%	12.2%	4.4%	3.2%	5.36	5.37	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	268	44	33	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.3%	4.1%	3.2%	5.39	5.01	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	104	25	0%	1.1	16.4%	12.3%	4.1%	3.2%	5.39	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		95	1	145	631	101	70	19	1%	1.5	16.1%	11.0%	5.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	1	200	872	140	96	26	1%	1.5	16.1%	11.0%	5.0%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Bell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	14.5%	12.8%	3.2%	—	5.40	16.3%	4.0%	118	-0.21	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	91
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	89
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	86
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	86
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	86
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	86
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Philip Walby R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	12.7%	12.0%	1.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	137	84
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	84
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	84
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	84
Scott Griggs R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	25	SU	5.11	11.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.278	4.19	19.7%	8.0%	112	-0.92	3.06	176	84
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	83
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Jacinto Arredondo R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	15.7%	10.7%	3.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	4.89	101	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	15.7%	12.5%	1.22	5.47
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86