Luke Bell
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 127
ERA5.65
FIP5.65
K%14.5%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%1.7%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 6 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.6% | 7.7% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 1.15 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 6 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.6% | 7.7% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 0.85 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 55 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 3.65 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 55 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.0% | 8.8% | 18.1% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 2.49 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 58 | 258 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 3% | 1.5 | 14.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.94 | 6.00 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 58 | 258 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 3% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 4.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 18 | 0 | 32 | 143 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 9.9% | 12.1% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 7.39 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CWS | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 36 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 91 | 394 | 63 | 45 | 13 | — | — | 16.1% | 11.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 6.25 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 14.5% | 12.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.65 | 5.27 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 40 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 41 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.48 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 5.41 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 44 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 5.05 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 137 | 102 | 28 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 1 | 145 | 631 | 101 | 70 | 21 | 1% | 1.5 | 16.1% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.98 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 1 | 200 | 872 | 140 | 96 | 29 | 1% | 1.5 | 16.1% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Bell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.65 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.44 | 16.3% | 4.0% | 118 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 91 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 89 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 89 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 88 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 87 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 87 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .285 | 5.19 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.48 | 4.65 | 113 | 87 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 86 |
| Zach Nuding R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| David Holman R 2028 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 84 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .273 | 2.80 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -1.91 | 2.42 | 302 | 84 |
| Zach Barnes R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.81 | 15.3% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .350 | 5.60 | 13.3% | -10.1% | 14 | +0.79 | 4.81 | 145 | 84 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 84 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.65 | 15.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 113 | 84 |
| Michael Mertz R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 133 | 84 |
| Reece Karalus R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 83 |
| Scott Griggs R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 11.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.01 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 112 | -1.07 | 3.06 | 176 | 83 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 83 |
| Jacinto Arredondo R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.89 | 101 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 15.7% | 12.4% | 1.25 | 5.51 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |