Patrick Murphy

P Round Rock Express

Age 32 RHP 6'5" / 211 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	AAAMIN	42	4	85	3.69	3.62	25.1%	12.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.81
2025	30	MIX2 levels	15	3	24	3.04	2.93	16.8%	9.9%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.08
2026	31	AAATEX	6	1	11	3.18	4.95	20.8%	10.4%	—	K 20.8% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	32	MLBTEX	5	0	5	4.78	4.62	18.2%	8.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBTEX	13	0	14	4.82	4.87	17.8%	9.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBTEX	10	0	10	4.99	5.13	17.4%	9.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

FB Velo81

K%53

xwOBA vs29

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsIvan Maldonado (age 35) · Angel Sánchez (age 33) · Chris Jakubauskas (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.78

FIP4.62

K%18.2%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p5322.7%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	8	2	21	99	20	14	3	25%	2.6	14.9%	16.7%	-1.7%	4.1%	4.29	6.18	—
2016	21	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	8	2	21	99	20	14	3	25%	2.6	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.0%	4.29	5.05	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	19	107	448	77	37	5	95%	5.3	11.4%	10.5%	0.9%	2.0%	3.04	4.55	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	19	107	448	77	37	5	95%	5.3	17.2%	8.3%	8.9%	1.1%	3.04	3.31	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	626	141	53	5	100%	5.7	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	0.9%	2.65	3.35	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	626	141	53	5	100%	5.7	22.5%	8.5%	14.1%	0.8%	2.65	2.72	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	18	84	364	86	27	7	100%	4.7	19.1%	8.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.71	3.99	—
2019	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	18	84	364	86	27	7	100%	4.7	23.6%	7.4%	16.2%	1.9%	4.71	3.10	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	4	0	6	25	5	2	0	0%	1.5	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.50	2.42	+0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	4	0	6	25	5	2	0	0%	1.5	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.50	2.43	+0.2
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	48	212	54	20	3	0%	1.2	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	1.5%	3.56	3.19	+0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	48	212	54	20	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	9.4%	16.0%	1.4%	3.56	2.91	+0.9
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	7	69	314	77	40	6	15%	1.5	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	2.2%	5.11	3.88	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	7	69	314	77	40	6	15%	1.5	24.5%	12.7%	11.8%	1.9%	5.11	3.74	+0.7
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	42	4	85	387	97	49	7	10%	2.0	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	2.0%	3.69	3.81	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	42	4	85	387	97	49	7	10%	2.0	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	1.8%	3.69	3.62	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	3	24	101	17	10	0	20%	1.6	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	0.0%	3.04	3.08	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	3	24	101	17	10	0	20%	1.6	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	0.0%	3.04	3.08	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	3	24	101	17	10	0	20%	1.6	16.8%	9.9%	6.9%	0.0%	3.04	2.93	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	11	48	10	5	2	17%	1.9	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	4.2%	3.18	4.95	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	11	48	10	5	2	17%	1.9	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	4.2%	3.18	4.95	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	6	1	11	48	10	5	2	17%	1.9	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	4.2%	3.18	4.95	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	0	40	187	38	20	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	1.6%	4.76	3.68	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TEX	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	37	0	39	166	30	16	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.87	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	TEX	29	0	30	128	22	13	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.9%	7.5%	3.4%	4.99	5.13	-0.2
2030	35	MLB MLE	TEX	23	0	24	103	17	11	4	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	3.7%	5.23	5.42	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.87	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	TEX	10	0	10	42	7	4	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.9%	7.5%	3.4%	4.99	5.13	-0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.4%	6.3%	3.7%	5.23	5.42	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	0	71	318	61	33	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	2.3%	4.85	4.06	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	900	173	93	20	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	2.3%	4.85	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		227	81	607	2624	479	273	48	36%	2.7	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	1.8%	3.57	3.88	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	27	200	864	158	90	16	36%	2.7	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	1.8%	3.57	3.88	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 11 IPFIP 4.95 → 5.29 (+0.34)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.860	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×0.900	9.38%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 23 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.08 (+0.06)K% 16.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.49%	—	×0.860	14.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×0.900	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 85 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.81 (+0.23)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.06%	—	×0.860	21.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.66%	—	×0.900	11.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.009	×1.100	1.97%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 63 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.88 (+0.35)K% 26.1% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.07%	—	×0.880	22.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.050	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.084	×1.100	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 17 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.67 (+0.39)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.880	26.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.43%	—	×1.050	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.968	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 84 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.99 (+0.89)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.63%	—	×0.810	19.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×1.100	8.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.860	×1.200	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 147 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.35 (+0.64)K% 22.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.46%	—	×0.770	17.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.32%	—	×1.150	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.147	×1.250	0.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 6 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.13 (+0.54)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.810	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.100	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.945	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	18.2%	8.9%	2.8%	—	5.10	17.4%	7.6%	94	+0.48	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	72
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	72
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	71
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	70
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	68
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	67
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	67
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	67
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	66
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	66
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	65
Ramon Delgado R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	30	SW	4.31	11.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	135	64
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	64
Jesse Estrada R 2016 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	10.1%	4.0%	1.9%	.285	4.89	11.2%	5.1%	180	+1.09	3.80	257	64
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	38	18.3%	9.8%	1.08	4.88
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*