Patrick Murphy
P
Round Rock Express
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'5" / 211 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP7.50
SIERA7.20
K%20.9%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.5%
IP25
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p5322.7%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
FB-1.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 8 | 2 | 21 | 99 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 14.9% | 16.7% | 4.1% | 4.29 | 6.20 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 20 | 19 | 107 | 448 | 77 | 37 | 5 | 11.4% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 3.04 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 27 | 27 | 153 | 626 | 141 | 53 | 5 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 0.9% | 2.65 | 3.34 | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 18 | 18 | 84 | 364 | 86 | 27 | 7 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.71 | 4.00 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.50 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 41 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 3.56 | 3.25 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 46 | 7 | 69 | 314 | 77 | 40 | 6 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 5.11 | 3.89 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 42 | 4 | 85 | 387 | 97 | 49 | 7 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.69 | 4.00 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 15 | 3 | 24 | 101 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 3.04 | 3.25 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 5 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TEX | 25 | — | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 34 | 141 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.03 | 3.12 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 24 | — | 24 | 101 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 226 | 80 | 605 | 2611 | 480 | 278 | 48 | 18.4% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.91 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 26 | 200 | 863 | 159 | 92 | 16 | 18.4% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.57 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.37 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 24 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 84 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 82 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 79 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 78 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 76 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 73 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 159 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.