Patrick Murphy — OGILVIE

Patrick Murphy P Round Rock Express

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 211 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.60

FIP4.49

K%19.3%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p5322.7%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

FB-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	8	2	21	99	20	14	3	25%	2.6	14.9%	16.7%	-1.7%	4.1%	4.29	6.18	—
2016	21	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	8	2	21	99	20	14	3	25%	2.6	20.2%	14.1%	6.1%	3.0%	4.29	5.05	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	19	107	448	77	37	5	95%	5.3	11.4%	10.5%	0.9%	2.0%	3.04	4.55	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	19	107	448	77	37	5	95%	5.3	17.2%	8.3%	8.9%	1.1%	3.04	3.31	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	626	141	53	5	100%	5.7	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	0.9%	2.65	3.35	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	626	141	53	5	100%	5.7	22.5%	8.5%	14.1%	0.8%	2.65	2.72	—
2019	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	18	84	364	86	27	7	100%	4.7	19.1%	8.2%	11.0%	2.7%	4.71	3.99	—
2019	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	18	18	84	364	86	27	7	100%	4.7	23.6%	7.4%	16.2%	1.9%	4.71	3.10	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	4	0	6	25	5	2	0	0%	1.5	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.50	2.42	+0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	4	0	6	25	5	2	0	0%	1.5	20.0%	8.0%	12.0%	0.0%	1.50	2.43	+0.2
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	48	212	54	20	3	0%	1.2	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	1.5%	3.56	3.19	+0.8
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	48	212	54	20	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	9.4%	16.0%	1.4%	3.56	2.91	+0.9
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	7	69	314	77	40	6	15%	1.5	22.9%	12.0%	10.9%	2.2%	5.11	3.88	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	7	69	314	77	40	6	15%	1.5	24.5%	12.7%	11.8%	1.9%	5.11	3.74	+0.7
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	42	4	85	387	97	49	7	10%	2.0	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.0%	3.69	3.87	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	42	4	85	387	97	49	7	10%	2.0	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	2.0%	3.69	3.87	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	42	4	85	387	97	49	7	10%	2.0	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	1.8%	3.69	3.62	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	3	24	101	17	10	0	20%	1.6	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	0.0%	3.04	3.12	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	3	24	101	17	10	0	20%	1.6	13.7%	9.3%	4.4%	0.0%	3.04	3.12	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	3	24	101	17	10	0	20%	1.6	16.8%	9.9%	6.9%	0.0%	3.04	2.93	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	0	40	187	38	20	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	1.6%	4.76	3.68	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	11	48	10	5	2	17%	1.9	—	—	—	—	3.18	—	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	1	11	48	10	5	2	17%	1.9	—	—	—	—	3.18	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	TEX	6	1	11	48	10	5	2	17%	1.9	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	4.2%	3.18	4.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	51	216	41	22	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.67	4.73	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	45	0	47	198	36	21	6	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	3.2%	4.84	4.98	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	TEX	41	0	43	181	32	20	6	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.07	5.25	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	TEX	18	0	19	80	15	8	2	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.67	4.73	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	20	11	3	0%	1.0	18.4%	10.4%	8.0%	3.2%	4.84	4.98	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	TEX	21	0	22	93	16	10	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.07	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	0	106	467	89	49	12	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	2.5%	4.83	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	881	168	92	23	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	2.5%	4.83	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		227	81	607	2624	476	273	48	36%	2.7	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	1.8%	3.57	3.89	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	27	200	864	157	90	16	36%	2.7	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	1.8%	3.57	3.89	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	19.3%	9.7%	2.6%	—	4.97	18.4%	8.0%	141	+0.48	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	77
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	76
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	72
David Hale R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	16.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.307	4.23	18.3%	12.1%	44	+0.93	3.30	493	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	71
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.24	13.8%	-0.4%	23	+3.06	2.74	378	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	70
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	70
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	67
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	66
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	66
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	66
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	66
Clayton Mortensen R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	31	SU	4.31	21.1%	9.7%	3.2%	.355	4.59	23.2%	9.0%	51	+0.28	4.31	221	66
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	18.6%	10.2%	1.15	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38