Patrick Murphy
P
Round Rock Express
Age 31
RHP
6'5" / 211 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION11 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.40
FIP4.33
K%21.9%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p5322.7%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
FB-1.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 8 | 2 | 21 | 99 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 25% | 2.6 | 14.9% | 16.7% | -1.7% | 4.2% | 4.29 | 6.26 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 8 | 2 | 21 | 99 | 20 | 14 | 3 | 25% | 2.6 | 20.2% | 14.1% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 5.05 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 19 | 107 | 448 | 77 | 37 | 5 | 95% | 5.3 | 11.4% | 10.5% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 3.04 | 4.70 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 19 | 107 | 448 | 77 | 37 | 5 | 95% | 5.3 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.04 | 3.31 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 153 | 626 | 141 | 53 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 0.8% | 2.65 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 153 | 626 | 141 | 53 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 0.8% | 2.65 | 2.72 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 18 | 18 | 84 | 364 | 86 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.28 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 18 | 18 | 84 | 364 | 86 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.6% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | 4.71 | 3.10 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 2.42 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 2.43 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 1.5% | 3.56 | 3.19 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 3.56 | 2.91 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 7 | 69 | 314 | 77 | 40 | 6 | 15% | 1.5 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 5.11 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 7 | 69 | 314 | 77 | 40 | 6 | 15% | 1.5 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 5.11 | 3.74 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 42 | 4 | 85 | 387 | 97 | 49 | 7 | 10% | 2.0 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 2.0% | 3.69 | 4.00 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 42 | 4 | 85 | 387 | 97 | 49 | 7 | 10% | 2.0 | 25.1% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 3.69 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 3 | 24 | 101 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 20% | 1.6 | 14.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 3.04 | 3.25 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 3 | 24 | 101 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 20% | 1.6 | 16.8% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 3.04 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 1 | 11 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 17% | 1.9 | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 67 | 281 | 61 | 29 | 8 | — | — | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 3.59 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 6 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 3.95 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 41 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 0 | 112 | 491 | 101 | 53 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.72 | 4.13 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 879 | 181 | 95 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.72 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 227 | 81 | 607 | 2624 | 482 | 281 | 50 | 36% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 3.57 | 3.96 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 27 | 200 | 864 | 159 | 93 | 16 | 36% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 3.57 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.83 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 141 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 73 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 73 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 71 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 70 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 69 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.26 | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.29 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 44 | +1.03 | 3.26 | 493 | 68 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 68 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 65 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 65 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 65 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 65 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 64 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 64 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 64 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 63 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.16 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 1.1% | .370 | 3.63 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 138 | +0.47 | 3.16 | 593 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 1.15 | 4.62 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |