Jonny Cuevas

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	33	2	61	3.69	4.25	19.2%	11.8%	—	K 15.2% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.87
2025	24	MIX2 levels	35	2	65	3.74	4.08	16.6%	10.9%	—	K 13.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.37
2026	25	MIX2 levels	31	1	53	5.09	4.74	18.9%	13.9%	—	K 15.7% · BB 14.1% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	1	0	1	5.80	5.80	13.9%	14.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTB	18	0	19	5.67	5.69	14.8%	14.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTB	24	0	25	5.63	5.67	15.4%	14.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsStephen Johnson (age 25) · Clate Schmidt (age 25) · Julian Arballo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.80

FIP5.80

K%13.9%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%-1.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	2	0	2	12	3	1	0	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	2.04	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	2	0	2	12	3	1	0	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	1.81	—
2022	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	19	1	56	259	43	40	5	5%	2.9	12.3%	18.2%	-5.9%	2.7%	4.50	5.83	—
2022	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	19	1	56	259	43	40	5	5%	2.9	16.6%	15.4%	1.2%	1.9%	4.50	4.87	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	20	102	435	74	38	8	80%	4.1	12.6%	10.3%	2.3%	2.2%	4.93	4.56	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	20	102	435	74	38	8	80%	4.1	17.0%	8.7%	8.3%	1.8%	4.93	3.78	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	2	61	271	52	32	6	6%	1.8	15.2%	11.3%	3.9%	2.9%	3.69	4.87	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	2	61	271	52	32	6	6%	1.8	15.2%	11.3%	3.9%	2.9%	3.69	4.87	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	2	61	271	52	32	6	6%	1.8	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	2.2%	3.69	4.25	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	65	265	44	29	5	6%	1.9	13.6%	11.7%	1.9%	1.7%	3.74	4.37	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	65	265	44	29	5	6%	1.9	13.6%	11.7%	1.9%	1.7%	3.74	4.37	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	65	265	44	29	5	6%	1.9	16.6%	10.9%	5.7%	1.9%	3.74	4.08	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	53	238	45	33	6	3%	1.7	15.7%	14.1%	1.6%	2.9%	5.09	5.15	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	53	238	45	33	6	3%	1.7	15.7%	14.1%	1.6%	2.9%	5.09	5.15	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	53	238	45	33	6	3%	1.7	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	2.5%	5.09	4.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	13.9%	14.9%	-1.0%	2.9%	5.80	5.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	47	0	49	209	31	30	6	0%	1.1	14.8%	14.4%	0.4%	3.0%	5.67	5.69	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	39	0	41	174	27	25	5	0%	1.1	15.4%	14.2%	1.2%	3.1%	5.63	5.67	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	35	0	37	156	24	22	5	0%	1.1	15.5%	14.2%	1.4%	3.2%	5.66	5.73	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	18	0	19	80	12	12	2	0%	1.1	14.8%	14.4%	0.4%	3.0%	5.67	5.69	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	24	0	25	106	16	15	3	0%	1.0	15.4%	14.2%	1.2%	3.1%	5.63	5.67	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	25	0	26	110	17	16	4	0%	1.0	15.5%	14.2%	1.4%	3.2%	5.66	5.73	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	292	45	42	9	0%	1.0	15.3%	14.3%	1.0%	3.1%	5.65	5.32	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	130	121	26	0%	1.1	15.3%	14.3%	1.0%	3.1%	5.65	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		145	26	340	1480	204	188	36	18%	2.3	13.8%	12.7%	1.1%	2.4%	4.45	4.88	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	15	200	871	120	111	21	18%	2.3	13.8%	12.7%	1.1%	2.4%	4.45	4.88	-2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 38 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.82 (+0.62)K% 16.8% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.77%	—	×0.810	13.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.80%	—	×1.100	12.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 15 IPFIP 5.57 → 5.83 (+0.26)K% 23.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.860	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.57 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 52 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.92 (+0.50)K% 17.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.98%	—	×0.810	13.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.100	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷0.922	×1.200	0.61%

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 13 IPFIP 6.92 → 6.17 (−0.76)K% 15.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.09%	—	×0.860	12.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×0.900	6.79%
HR / BF /BF	7.55%	÷1.380	×1.100	6.01%

Result: FIP 6.92 → 6.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 42 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.46 (+0.98)K% 19.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.79%	—	×0.770	15.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×1.150	11.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.015	×1.250	3.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 15 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.12 (+0.42)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.810	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.100	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.958	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 3 IPFIP 6.27 → 6.00 (−0.27)K% 15.0% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.860	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	35.00%	—	×0.900	31.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.061	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 6.27 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 102 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.56 (+0.78)K% 17.0% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.01%	—	×0.740	12.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.180	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷1.075	×1.300	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonny Cuevas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.80	13.9%	14.9%	2.9%	—	5.70	15.2%	0.9%	128	-0.10	—	—	—
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	83
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	81
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	81
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	80
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	79
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	79
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	79
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	79
Endrys Briceno R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	26	SU	4.76	14.0%	13.2%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	303	78
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	78
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	78
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	78
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	78
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	77
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	14.8%	14.5%	1.17	5.71
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*