Juan Soto — OGILVIE

Juan Soto P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 209 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%22.2%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	13	5	35	170	44	37	0	38%	2.7	17.6%	27.2%	-9.6%	0.0%	5.45	5.06	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	13	5	35	170	44	37	0	38%	2.7	25.9%	21.8%	4.1%	0.0%	5.45	3.76	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Blue	13	3	41	199	48	34	4	23%	3.2	16.4%	21.4%	-5.0%	2.7%	5.01	5.88	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros Blue	13	3	41	199	48	34	4	23%	3.2	24.1%	17.1%	7.0%	2.0%	5.01	4.50	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	3	26	130	17	25	3	27%	2.3	8.9%	24.0%	-15.1%	2.3%	8.06	6.68	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	11	3	26	130	17	25	3	27%	2.3	8.9%	24.0%	-15.1%	2.3%	8.06	6.68	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	11	3	26	130	17	25	3	27%	2.3	13.1%	19.2%	-6.2%	2.3%	8.06	6.22	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	1	6	32	7	3	1	50%	2.8	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.1%	9.53	4.16	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	1	6	32	7	3	1	50%	2.8	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.1%	9.53	4.16	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	2	1	6	32	7	3	1	50%	2.8	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.1%	9.53	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	HOU	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.8%	8.4%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.73	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		39	12	107	531	81	123	9	31%	2.8	15.3%	23.2%	-7.9%	1.8%	6.12	5.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	22	200	989	151	229	17	31%	2.8	15.3%	23.2%	-7.9%	1.8%	6.12	5.71	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	22.2%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.73	22.9%	10.6%	20	-0.27	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	79
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	79
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	78
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	76
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	76
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	76
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	75
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	75
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	75
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	74
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	74
Jake Lyons R 2022 · 5.38 FIP	23	SW	5.38	18.3%	12.7%	4.0%	.259	4.13	20.1%	11.6%	63	-1.25	4.13	174	74
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.7%	248	-0.19	3.67	383	74
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	74