Juan Soto
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 209 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros | 13 | 5 | 35 | 170 | 44 | 37 | 0 | 38% | 2.7 | 17.6% | 27.2% | -9.6% | 0.0% | 5.45 | 5.06 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros | 13 | 5 | 35 | 170 | 44 | 37 | 0 | 38% | 2.7 | 25.9% | 21.8% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 5.45 | 3.76 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros Blue | 13 | 3 | 41 | 199 | 48 | 34 | 4 | 23% | 3.2 | 16.4% | 21.4% | -5.0% | 2.5% | 5.01 | 5.81 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros Blue | 13 | 3 | 41 | 199 | 48 | 34 | 4 | 23% | 3.2 | 24.1% | 17.1% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 5.01 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros | 11 | 3 | 26 | 130 | 17 | 25 | 3 | 27% | 2.3 | 8.9% | 24.0% | -15.1% | 1.8% | 8.06 | 6.40 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros | 11 | 3 | 26 | 130 | 17 | 25 | 3 | 27% | 2.3 | 13.1% | 19.2% | -6.2% | 2.3% | 8.06 | 6.22 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 50% | 2.8 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 9.53 | 4.16 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 50% | 2.8 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 9.53 | 4.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 0 | 15 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 12 | 107 | 531 | 81 | 123 | 8 | 31% | 2.8 | 15.3% | 23.2% | -7.9% | 1.6% | 6.12 | 5.61 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 22 | 200 | 989 | 151 | 229 | 16 | 31% | 2.8 | 15.3% | 23.2% | -7.9% | 1.6% | 6.12 | 5.61 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Soto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.8% | 14.7% | 20 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 83 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 82 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.60 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 1.5% | .239 | 5.26 | 21.3% | 3.7% | 54 | +1.66 | 3.60 | 127 | 80 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 79 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 79 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 77 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 77 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 77 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 76 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 76 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 76 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 76 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 75 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 75 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 74 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 74 |
| Luis Contreras R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.56 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.8% | 14.4% | 42 | -0.44 | 3.12 | 258 | 74 |
| Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.08 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 4.6% | .338 | 4.11 | 13.8% | 4.8% | 154 | -0.97 | 3.26 | 376 | 74 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 74 |
| Connor Schultz R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 74 |