Eccel Correa

P Frederick Keys

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	19	12	67	4.57	3.09	18.6%	9.4%	—	K 14.0% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.96
2025	22	MIX3 levels	16	8	65	2.62	3.38	18.2%	8.0%	—	K 14.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.02
2026	23	MIX3 levels	22	0	34	3.93	5.43	17.2%	14.6%	—	K 13.4% · BB 16.6% · FIP 6.00
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.30	5.30	16.0%	12.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	18	0	19	5.08	5.00	17.8%	11.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBAL	25	0	26	4.94	4.88	18.9%	11.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBrad Deppermann (age 25) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Jeff Manship (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%16.0%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	35	158	45	15	3	36%	3.2	19.4%	11.9%	7.5%	2.6%	5.97	4.39	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	4	35	158	45	15	3	36%	3.2	28.5%	9.5%	19.0%	1.9%	5.97	2.93	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	67	307	57	29	2	63%	3.5	14.0%	12.0%	2.0%	1.0%	4.57	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	67	307	57	29	2	63%	3.5	14.0%	12.0%	2.0%	1.0%	4.57	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	67	307	57	29	2	63%	3.5	18.6%	9.4%	9.1%	0.7%	4.57	3.09	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	8	65	275	50	22	4	50%	4.1	14.4%	9.2%	5.2%	1.8%	2.62	4.02	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	8	65	275	50	22	4	50%	4.1	14.4%	9.2%	5.2%	1.8%	2.62	4.02	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	8	65	275	50	22	4	50%	4.1	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	1.5%	2.62	3.38	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	34	157	27	23	5	0%	1.6	13.4%	16.6%	-3.2%	3.5%	3.93	6.00	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	34	157	27	23	5	0%	1.6	13.4%	16.6%	-3.2%	3.5%	3.93	6.00	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	0	34	157	27	23	5	0%	1.6	17.2%	14.6%	2.5%	3.2%	3.93	5.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.0%	12.5%	3.4%	2.9%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	42	0	44	185	33	21	5	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.4%	6.5%	2.9%	5.08	5.00	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	37	0	39	164	31	18	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.94	4.88	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	18	0	19	80	14	9	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.4%	6.5%	2.9%	5.08	5.00	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	25	0	26	110	21	12	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.94	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	45	188	35	21	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.3%	7.2%	2.9%	5.00	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	94	22	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.3%	7.2%	2.9%	5.00	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		68	24	201	897	134	107	17	35%	3.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.9%	4.07	4.41	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	24	200	891	133	106	17	35%	3.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.9%	4.07	4.41	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 17 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.98 (+0.79)K% 17.3% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.28%	—	×0.770	13.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.150	17.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 15 IPFIP 5.79 → 7.25 (+1.46)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.180	16.09%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.79 → 7.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 33 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.58 (+0.91)K% 24.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.97%	—	×0.740	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.180	11.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.99%

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 27 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.62 (+0.38)K% 13.0% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.96%	—	×0.770	9.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.150	6.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.229	×1.250	2.83%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 5 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.10 (+0.20)K% 4.8% → 3.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	4.76%	—	×0.810	3.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.100	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 62 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.96 (+0.79)K% 18.9% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.95%	—	×0.740	14.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.18%	—	×1.180	12.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷0.952	×1.300	0.96%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 5 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.32 (+0.37)K% 13.6% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.680	9.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.995	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 35 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.39 (+1.45)K% 28.5% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.680	19.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.49%	—	×1.250	11.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.027	×1.400	2.59%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eccel Correa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	16.0%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.94	18.4%	7.1%	82	-0.36	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	83
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	82
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	81
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	81
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	80
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	80
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	80
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	79
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	78
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	78
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	78
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	78
Chad Jenkins R 2012 · 5.06 FIP	24	SW	5.06	11.8%	7.4%	3.7%	.257	3.56	12.8%	7.6%	159	-1.50	3.26	220	78
Lucas Harrell R 2010 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	12.6%	13.4%	1.7%	.372	4.24	15.1%	5.1%	365	-0.41	2.81	541	78
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	78
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	78
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	36	17.8%	11.6%	1.12	5.08
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54