Eccel Correa — OGILVIE

Eccel Correa P Frederick Keys

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%15.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	35	158	45	15	3	36%	3.2	19.4%	11.9%	7.5%	2.6%	5.97	4.39	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	4	35	158	45	15	3	36%	3.2	19.4%	11.9%	7.5%	2.6%	5.97	4.39	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	4	35	158	45	15	3	36%	3.2	28.5%	9.5%	19.0%	1.9%	5.97	2.93	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	67	307	57	29	2	63%	3.5	14.0%	12.0%	2.0%	1.0%	4.57	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	67	307	57	29	2	63%	3.5	14.0%	12.0%	2.0%	1.0%	4.57	3.96	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	67	307	57	29	2	63%	3.5	18.6%	9.4%	9.1%	0.7%	4.57	3.09	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	8	65	275	50	22	4	50%	4.1	14.4%	9.2%	5.2%	1.8%	2.62	4.02	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	8	65	275	50	22	4	50%	4.1	14.4%	9.2%	5.2%	1.8%	2.62	4.02	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	8	65	275	50	22	4	50%	4.1	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	1.5%	2.62	3.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	22	0	34	157	27	23	5	0%	1.6	13.4%	16.6%	-3.2%	3.5%	3.93	6.00	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	22	0	34	157	27	23	5	0%	1.6	13.4%	16.6%	-3.2%	3.5%	3.93	6.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	BAL	10	0	15	66	12	9	3	0%	1.5	18.2%	13.6%	4.5%	4.5%	4.30	5.79	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	11	0	17	81	14	12	1	0%	1.6	17.3%	14.8%	2.5%	1.2%	3.63	4.19	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BAL	1	0	2	10	1	2	1	0%	2.3	10.0%	20.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	3.86	10.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	59	0	62	261	47	25	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.74	4.67	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	63	264	51	24	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.60	4.52	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	63	264	53	24	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.52	4.47	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	59	0	62	261	52	24	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.51	4.50	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	26	0	27	114	21	11	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	2.7%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	40	0	42	177	34	16	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.60	4.52	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	48	0	50	211	42	19	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.52	4.47	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	45	21	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.51	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	0	170	720	140	67	20	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	2.8%	4.57	4.14	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	79	23	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.3%	10.2%	2.8%	4.57	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		68	24	201	897	134	107	17	35%	3.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.9%	4.07	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	24	200	891	133	106	17	35%	3.0	15.0%	11.9%	3.0%	1.9%	4.07	4.41	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eccel Correa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	15.9%	10.2%	2.7%	—	4.55	19.1%	9.7%	187	-0.37	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	89
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	88
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	83
Michael Wagner R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	23	SW	4.14	13.1%	11.3%	1.3%	.287	4.29	16.4%	4.1%	84	+0.15	4.14	149	83
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	83
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	83
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	82
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	82
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	82
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	82
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	82
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	81
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	81
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	81
Bryan Pope R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	23	SW	4.48	13.8%	6.1%	3.2%	.347	4.28	17.7%	7.3%	86	-0.20	3.96	148	81
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	81
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	58	18.8%	9.5%	1.06	4.64
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79