Eccel Correa
P
Frederick Keys
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%19.8%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 4 | 35 | 158 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 36% | 3.2 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 5.97 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 4 | 35 | 158 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 36% | 3.2 | 28.5% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 1.9% | 5.97 | 2.93 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 12 | 67 | 307 | 57 | 29 | 2 | 63% | 3.5 | 14.0% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 4.57 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 12 | 67 | 307 | 57 | 29 | 2 | 63% | 3.5 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 0.7% | 4.57 | 3.09 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 8 | 65 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 50% | 4.1 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 2.62 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 8 | 65 | 275 | 50 | 22 | 4 | 50% | 4.1 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 1.5% | 2.62 | 3.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 20 | 0 | 31 | 145 | 26 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.0% | 17.2% | -3.2% | 3.8% | 4.31 | 6.19 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.49 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 72 | 316 | 60 | 38 | 10 | — | — | 18.9% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 144 | 0 | 151 | 636 | 137 | 57 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.93 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 24 | 198 | 885 | 134 | 106 | 17 | 36% | 3.0 | 15.1% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 4.13 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 24 | 200 | 892 | 135 | 107 | 17 | 36% | 3.0 | 15.1% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 4.13 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eccel Correa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.29 | 21.3% | 12.4% | 126 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 88 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 88 |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 87 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 86 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 86 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 85 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 85 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 84 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.60 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 1.5% | .239 | 5.26 | 21.3% | 3.7% | 54 | +1.66 | 3.60 | 127 | 84 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.92 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .309 | 4.78 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.86 | 3.92 | 188 | 84 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 83 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.23 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.33 | 3.60 | 301 | 82 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 82 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 81 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 81 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 81 |
| Chris Powell R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .266 | 3.42 | 18.8% | 15.1% | 28 | -0.39 | 3.31 | 102 | 81 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 80 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 80 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 41 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 1.06 | 4.35 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |