Leomar Rosario — OGILVIE

Leomar Rosario P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 217 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA5.97

FIP5.97

K%21.7%

BB%21.6%

K-BB%0.1%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	11	5	28	128	29	27	1	45%	2.5	15.4%	26.4%	-11.0%	1.1%	6.43	5.75	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	11	5	28	128	29	27	1	45%	2.5	22.7%	21.1%	1.6%	0.8%	6.43	4.39	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	6	1	16	75	16	16	1	17%	2.6	14.5%	26.7%	-12.2%	1.4%	6.32	6.00	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	6	1	16	75	16	16	1	17%	2.6	14.5%	26.7%	-12.2%	1.4%	6.32	6.00	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	6	1	16	75	16	16	1	17%	2.6	21.3%	21.3%	0.0%	1.3%	6.32	4.95	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	49	224	65	40	3	24%	2.3	21.5%	20.2%	1.3%	2.0%	4.41	4.95	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	5	49	224	65	40	3	24%	2.3	21.5%	20.2%	1.3%	2.0%	4.41	4.95	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	5	49	224	65	40	3	24%	2.3	29.0%	17.9%	11.2%	1.3%	4.41	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	48	236	66	63	3	0%	1.2	20.7%	31.5%	-10.8%	1.7%	4.50	6.25	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	40	0	48	236	66	63	3	0%	1.2	20.7%	31.5%	-10.8%	1.7%	4.50	6.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	HOU	40	0	48	236	66	63	3	0%	1.2	28.0%	26.7%	1.3%	1.3%	4.50	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	51	0	54	227	51	42	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	18.4%	4.0%	2.9%	5.62	5.49	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	54	230	53	38	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	16.3%	6.6%	2.9%	5.33	5.19	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	22	18	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	18.4%	4.0%	2.9%	5.62	5.49	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	34	0	36	152	35	25	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	16.3%	6.6%	2.9%	5.33	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	57	43	7	0%	1.1	22.7%	17.1%	5.6%	2.9%	5.44	4.93	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	146	24	0%	1.1	22.7%	17.1%	5.6%	2.9%	5.44	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		78	11	141	663	128	173	11	14%	1.8	19.2%	26.1%	-6.9%	1.6%	5.05	5.68	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	16	200	943	181	246	15	14%	1.8	19.2%	26.1%	-6.9%	1.6%	5.05	5.68	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leomar Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	21.7%	21.6%	2.9%	—	5.34	22.7%	5.3%	108	-0.63	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	92
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	86
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	86
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	85
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	84
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	84
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	83
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	83
Juan Mendez R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	21.0%	17.9%	2.5%	.279	5.12	22.5%	7.9%	82	+0.13	3.69	156	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	82
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	82
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	81
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	81
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	81
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	22.4%	18.7%	1.12	5.64
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15