Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 19 | 96 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.9% | 21.8% | -8.9% | 3.9% | 6.98 | 6.93 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 19 | 96 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.7% | 18.8% | -2.1% | 2.1% | 6.98 | 5.58 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 42 | 193 | 73 | 29 | 1 | 6% | 1.3 | 27.9% | 17.9% | 10.0% | 0.9% | 4.29 | 3.50 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 42 | 193 | 73 | 29 | 1 | 6% | 1.3 | 37.8% | 15.0% | 22.8% | 0.5% | 4.29 | 2.00 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 18.0% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 4.34 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.2% | 14.1% | 23.1% | 1.3% | 4.34 | 2.46 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 93 | 41 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.1% | 18.5% | 7.6% | 1.0% | 3.79 | 3.76 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 93 | 41 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 35.6% | 15.7% | 19.9% | 1.1% | 3.79 | 2.70 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 47 | 221 | 68 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 21.4% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 5.17 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 47 | 221 | 68 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 19.5% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 5.17 | 3.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 25 | 0 | 33 | 144 | 55 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.7% | 25.9% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 3.36 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 67 | 52 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 92 | 395 | 122 | 87 | 6 | — | — | 30.9% | 21.9% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 4.03 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 26.7% | 20.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 5.18 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 65 | 48 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 19.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 62 | 45 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 18.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 24 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 19.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 18.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 63 | 46 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 19.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.76 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 221 | 161 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 19.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 158 | 2 | 219 | 993 | 261 | 202 | 12 | 1% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 20.4% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 4.23 | 4.15 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 2 | 200 | 907 | 238 | 185 | 11 | 1% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 20.4% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 4.23 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Moore (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 26.7% | 20.5% | 2.5% | — | 5.14 | 26.2% | 7.0% | 115 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Stevie Branche R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 25.6% | 19.1% | 1.2% | .274 | 5.82 | 19.8% | -0.7% | 28 | +1.79 | 3.25 | 162 | 85 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 84 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 27.2% | 20.0% | 1.6% | .331 | 4.52 | 22.4% | 3.4% | 50 | +0.32 | 4.20 | 311 | 84 |
| Fernando Baez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 81 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 81 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 80 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.63 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.54 | 2.53 | 233 | 80 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.49 | 21.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% | .367 | 4.98 | 19.5% | 1.7% | 83 | +0.49 | 3.72 | 197 | 80 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 80 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 25.1% | 21.2% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.67 | 25.1% | -1.5% | 13 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 310 | 79 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.51 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 184 | 79 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 3.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 172 | 79 |
| Evan Johnson R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 23.6% | 17.6% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 103 | 79 |
| Michael Stryffeler R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.35 | 30.4% | 17.3% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.75 | 19.4% | 1.1% | 33 | +0.40 | 2.43 | 140 | 79 |
| Dario Beltre R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 17.0% | 1.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 110 | 79 |
| Chris Perry R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 19.3% | 0.8% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 113 | 79 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 78 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 78 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 24.3% | 15.5% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 194 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 26.4% | 19.6% | 1.00 | 5.13 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |