Darlin Saladin — OGILVIE

Darlin Saladin P Springfield Cardinals

+0.3 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2029

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.9%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.4%

IP98

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals Red	20	0	38	165	31	15	0	12.8%	11.4%	0.0%	4.03	3.46	+0.6
2022	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals	12	12	48	212	51	26	0	16.4%	15.3%	0.0%	3.59	3.66	+0.7
2023	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	13	11	49	207	50	23	4	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	3.10	4.98	-0.0
2024	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	23	21	123	489	134	33	4	20.7%	7.9%	1.0%	2.71	2.91	+3.3
2025	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	26	13	95	409	81	47	8	15.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.85	5.11	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	3	0	5	25	6	3	0	—	—	—	10.80	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	STL	18	18	98	415	83	43	12	19.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.65	4.65	+0.7
2026 Total	23	MLB	STL	—	—	103	440	89	46	12	20.1%	10.5%	2.6%	4.95	4.43	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	STL	21	21	117	494	103	48	14	20.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.46	+1.1
2028	25	MLB	STL	24	24	130	551	117	51	15	21.3%	9.2%	2.8%	4.42	4.37	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	STL	25	25	137	580	125	53	16	21.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.37	4.34	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	STL	26	26	140	593	128	54	17	21.6%	9.1%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	STL	26	26	140	592	128	54	17	21.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.36	4.37	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	STL	25	25	137	579	124	53	17	21.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.39	4.42	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	STL	24	24	133	562	119	52	16	21.2%	9.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.48	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	STL	23	23	128	542	114	51	16	21.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.55	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	STL	22	22	123	520	108	50	16	20.7%	9.6%	3.1%	4.59	4.64	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	STL	21	21	118	497	101	49	16	20.4%	9.8%	3.2%	4.68	4.74	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	STL	20	20	112	472	95	47	15	20.0%	10.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.85	+0.6
2038	35	MLB	STL	19	19	105	445	87	45	15	19.6%	10.2%	3.4%	4.89	4.97	+0.4
2039	36	MLB	STL	18	18	98	416	80	43	15	19.2%	10.4%	3.5%	5.02	5.10	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			97	57	358	1507	259	174	23	17.2%	11.6%	1.5%	3.70	3.95	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—			54	32	200	843	145	97	13	17.2%	11.6%	1.5%	3.70	3.95	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darlin Saladin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	19.9%	10.5%	2.8%	—	4.39	21.2%	11.9%	385	-0.26	—	—	—
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	91
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	91
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	91
Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	91
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.78	18.8%	6.8%	146	+0.51	4.27	238	91
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	91
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	17.9%	10.9%	2.5%	.285	4.64	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.30	3.44	393	91
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	91
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	90
Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.85	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.23	3.77	350	90
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	90
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	90
Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.73	3.99	188	90
Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.65	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.00	4.00	518	89
Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	89
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	89
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	89
Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	89
Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.4	$13M	+$11M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$10M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+1.1	$11M	+$8M
Totals		$10M		$77M	+$67M