Ben Hernandez

P Everett AquaSox

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	0	52	3.83	3.35	15.8%	8.6%	—	K 11.9% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.00
2025	24	A+SEA	37	0	55	3.46	3.37	20.1%	11.9%	—	K 15.5% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.07
2026	25	A+SEA	20	0	29	5.90	4.51	15.5%	10.9%	—	K 11.9% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	26	MLBSEA	—	—	0	5.76	5.76	12.7%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBSEA	14	0	15	5.64	5.65	13.7%	13.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBSEA	20	0	21	5.60	5.63	14.3%	13.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAlex Caldera (age 29) · Cooper Adams (age 24) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 126

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%12.7%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%-1.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	35	155	33	17	2	100%	2.9	16.5%	14.4%	2.1%	1.5%	4.33	4.36	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	35	155	33	17	2	100%	2.9	21.3%	11.0%	10.3%	1.3%	4.33	3.41	—
2022	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	23	77	350	71	40	7	100%	3.3	15.0%	13.5%	1.5%	2.3%	5.38	4.79	—
2022	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	23	77	350	71	40	7	100%	3.3	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.0%	5.38	4.00	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	58	273	36	32	3	71%	4.1	9.5%	14.1%	-4.5%	1.4%	4.99	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	58	273	36	32	3	71%	4.1	13.2%	11.7%	1.5%	1.1%	4.99	4.19	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	52	222	35	19	2	0%	2.1	11.9%	10.0%	1.9%	1.2%	3.83	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	52	222	35	19	2	0%	2.1	11.9%	10.0%	1.9%	1.2%	3.83	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	52	222	35	19	2	0%	2.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	0.9%	3.83	3.35	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	37	0	55	244	49	29	2	0%	1.5	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	1.0%	3.46	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	37	0	55	244	49	29	2	0%	1.5	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	1.0%	3.46	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	37	0	55	244	49	29	2	0%	1.5	20.1%	11.9%	8.2%	0.8%	3.46	3.37	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	20	0	29	129	20	14	3	0%	1.4	11.9%	12.5%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.90	5.27	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	20	0	29	129	20	14	3	0%	1.4	11.9%	12.5%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.90	5.27	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	20	0	29	129	20	14	3	0%	1.4	15.5%	10.9%	4.7%	2.3%	5.90	4.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.7%	14.3%	-1.7%	2.8%	5.76	5.76	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	40	0	42	177	24	25	5	0%	1.1	13.7%	13.9%	-0.2%	2.9%	5.64	5.65	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	33	0	35	148	21	20	4	0%	1.1	14.3%	13.7%	0.6%	3.0%	5.60	5.63	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	14	0	15	63	9	9	2	0%	1.1	13.7%	13.9%	-0.2%	2.9%	5.64	5.65	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	20	0	21	89	13	12	3	0%	1.1	14.3%	13.7%	0.6%	3.0%	5.60	5.63	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	152	21	21	4	0%	1.1	14.1%	13.8%	0.3%	2.9%	5.62	5.26	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	117	117	22	0%	1.1	14.1%	13.8%	0.3%	2.9%	5.62	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		131	45	305	1373	184	180	23	34%	2.3	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	1.7%	4.63	4.54	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	29	200	899	120	118	15	34%	2.3	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	1.7%	4.63	4.54	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 29 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.27 (+0.83)K% 15.5% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.50%	—	×0.770	11.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.150	12.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 55 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.07 (+0.71)K% 20.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.08%	—	×0.770	15.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.89%	—	×1.150	13.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.036	×1.250	0.99%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 31 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.98 (+0.66)K% 15.7% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.67%	—	×0.740	11.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×1.180	10.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.020	×1.300	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 21 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.04 (+0.65)K% 15.9% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.91%	—	×0.770	12.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.150	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.959	×1.250	1.48%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 42 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.62 (+0.66)K% 13.3% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.27%	—	×0.740	9.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.22%	—	×1.180	13.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.02%	÷1.089	×1.300	1.22%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 16 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.41 (+1.05)K% 13.0% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.99%	—	×0.680	8.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.99%	—	×1.250	16.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 77 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.79 (+0.86)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.29%	—	×0.740	15.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.180	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.140	×1.300	2.28%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 31 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.36 (+0.81)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.30%	—	×0.740	16.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.23%	—	×1.180	14.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷1.237	×1.300	1.51%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	12.7%	14.3%	2.8%	—	5.64	14.0%	0.2%	77	-0.12	—	—	—
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	82
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	79
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	77
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	77
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	77
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	77
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	77
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	76
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	76
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	76
Endrys Briceno R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	26	SU	4.76	14.0%	13.2%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	303	76
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	76
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	76
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	76
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.55	20.8%	9.1%	172	-1.27	2.64	280	75
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	75
Hunter Adkins R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	11.8%	11.3%	2.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	160	75
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	13.4%	14.0%	1.10	5.68
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*