Ben Hernandez — OGILVIE

Ben Hernandez P Everett AquaSox

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%13.1%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%-1.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	35	155	33	17	2	100%	2.9	16.5%	14.4%	2.1%	1.5%	4.33	4.36	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	35	155	33	17	2	100%	2.9	21.3%	11.0%	10.3%	1.3%	4.33	3.41	—
2022	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	23	77	350	71	40	7	100%	3.3	15.0%	13.5%	1.5%	2.3%	5.38	4.79	—
2022	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	23	77	350	71	40	7	100%	3.3	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.0%	5.38	4.00	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	58	273	36	32	3	71%	4.1	9.5%	14.1%	-4.5%	1.4%	4.99	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	58	273	36	32	3	71%	4.1	9.5%	14.1%	-4.5%	1.4%	4.99	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	58	273	36	32	3	71%	4.1	13.2%	11.7%	1.5%	1.1%	4.99	4.19	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	52	222	35	19	2	0%	2.1	11.9%	10.0%	1.9%	1.2%	3.83	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	52	222	35	19	2	0%	2.1	11.9%	10.0%	1.9%	1.2%	3.83	4.00	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	52	222	35	19	2	0%	2.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	0.9%	3.83	3.35	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	37	0	55	244	49	29	2	0%	1.5	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	1.0%	3.46	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	37	0	55	244	49	29	2	0%	1.5	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	1.0%	3.46	4.07	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	37	0	55	244	49	29	2	0%	1.5	20.1%	11.9%	8.2%	0.8%	3.46	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	20	0	29	129	20	14	3	0%	1.4	11.9%	12.5%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.90	5.27	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	20	0	29	129	20	14	3	0%	1.4	11.9%	12.5%	-0.5%	2.9%	5.90	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	SEA	20	0	29	129	20	14	3	0%	1.4	15.5%	10.9%	4.7%	2.3%	5.90	4.44	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	3	4	1	0%	1.0	13.1%	14.4%	-1.4%	2.5%	5.60	5.60	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	35	154	23	18	4	—	—	15.1%	11.4%	3.7%	2.4%	5.85	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	67	0	70	296	44	41	8	0%	1.0	15.0%	13.9%	1.1%	2.6%	5.42	5.39	-0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	66	0	69	291	46	40	8	0%	1.0	15.6%	13.6%	2.0%	2.7%	5.35	5.35	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	67	282	45	38	8	0%	1.0	15.9%	13.5%	2.4%	2.8%	5.35	5.38	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	61	0	64	270	43	37	8	0%	1.0	15.8%	13.7%	2.2%	2.9%	5.42	5.49	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	29	0	30	127	19	18	3	0%	1.0	15.0%	13.9%	1.1%	2.6%	5.42	5.39	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	41	0	43	182	28	25	5	0%	1.0	15.6%	13.6%	2.0%	2.7%	5.35	5.35	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	48	0	50	211	34	29	6	0%	1.0	15.9%	13.5%	2.4%	2.8%	5.35	5.38	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	35	30	6	0%	1.0	15.8%	13.7%	2.2%	2.9%	5.42	5.49	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	176	743	116	101	21	0%	1.0	15.7%	13.6%	2.0%	2.8%	5.38	5.03	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	115	24	0%	1.1	15.7%	13.6%	2.0%	2.8%	5.38	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		131	45	305	1373	184	180	23	34%	2.3	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	1.7%	4.63	4.54	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	29	200	899	120	118	15	34%	2.3	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	1.7%	4.63	4.54	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	13.1%	14.4%	2.5%	—	5.37	15.5%	1.8%	206	-0.23	—	—	—
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	83
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	83
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	81
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	80
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	80
James Pugliese R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	24	SW	4.72	12.5%	11.6%	2.2%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	218	80
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	79
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	78
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	78
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	78
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	78
Joe Nahas R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	23	SU	4.70	14.3%	13.3%	2.1%	.295	4.63	18.8%	10.6%	77	-0.07	4.33	328	78
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	15.1%	13.8%	1.05	5.43
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39