Luke Sinnard — OGILVIE

Luke Sinnard P Rome Emperors

Age 23 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%21.6%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.3%	2.86	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.3%	2.86	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	1.0%	2.86	2.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.8%	2.94	4.03	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.8%	2.94	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	ATL	3	3	9	36	12	1	0	100%	3.1	33.3%	2.8%	30.6%	0.0%	1.93	0.64	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	ATL	8	8	30	120	36	11	2	100%	3.7	30.0%	9.2%	20.8%	1.7%	2.73	2.64	—
2026	23	AA RAW	ATL	3	3	13	55	13	4	2	100%	4.3	23.6%	7.3%	16.4%	3.6%	4.15	4.02	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	5	22	5	2	1	100%	5.2	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.55	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	57	233	66	18	5	—	—	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	2.0%	3.09	4.07	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	67	282	63	30	8	100%	5.6	22.4%	10.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.46	4.41	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	68	285	65	29	8	100%	5.6	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.38	4.34	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	68	285	66	29	8	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	2.7%	4.34	4.32	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	66	281	65	29	8	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	64	272	62	28	8	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.44	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	29	122	27	13	3	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.46	4.41	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	45	190	43	19	5	100%	5.6	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.38	4.34	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	54	228	53	23	6	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	2.7%	4.34	4.32	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	57	241	55	24	7	100%	5.7	23.0%	10.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	57	241	55	25	7	100%	5.7	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.44	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	241	1018	233	104	28	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.8%	4.38	3.99	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	193	86	23	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.8%	4.38	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		30	30	124	515	111	52	10	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	1.9%	2.90	3.62	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	828	179	84	16	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	1.9%	2.90	3.62	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Sinnard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.6%	11.1%	2.7%	—	4.36	22.7%	12.4%	202	-0.19	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	90
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	89
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	88
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	88
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	86
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	86
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	86
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	86
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	83
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	82
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	22.6%	10.4%	1.07	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19