Luke Sinnard — OGILVIE

Luke Sinnard P Rome Emperors

Age 23 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%21.6%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.6%	2.86	3.46	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	1.0%	2.86	2.38	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Rome Emperors	6	6	23	89	29	6	1	100%	3.8	26.9%	9.6%	17.4%	2.1%	2.35	3.18	+0.4
ROS	23	MLB	ATL	11	11	62	260	56	28	7	100%	5.6	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.55	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.55	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	85	349	85	34	8	—	—	24.4%	9.8%	14.5%	2.3%	3.95	4.18	+0.9
2026 FULL	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.17	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	ATL	11	11	63	266	60	28	7	100%	5.7	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	ATL	11	11	64	270	62	27	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.35	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	ATL	11	11	64	270	62	27	7	100%	5.8	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.35	4.33	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	ATL	10	10	63	266	61	27	8	100%	6.3	23.0%	10.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.36	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	ATL	10	10	61	258	59	26	8	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2032	29	MLB	ATL	10	10	58	246	56	26	8	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2033	30	MLB	ATL	9	9	55	231	52	25	8	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.76	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	ATL	9	9	51	216	47	24	8	100%	5.7	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.96	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	ATL	5	5	27	114	25	12	3	100%	5.4	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.0
2028	25	MLB	ATL	7	7	42	177	40	18	5	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.35	+0.1
2029	26	MLB	ATL	8	8	51	215	50	22	6	100%	6.4	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.35	4.33	+0.1
2030	27	MLB	ATL	9	9	54	228	53	23	6	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.36	4.36	+0.1
2031	28	MLB	ATL	9	9	54	228	52	23	7	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2032	29	MLB	ATL	9	9	53	224	51	23	7	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2033	30	MLB	ATL	8	8	51	215	48	23	7	100%	6.4	22.3%	10.8%	11.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.76	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	ATL	8	8	48	203	44	23	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			64	64	380	1603	363	167	48	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.15	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	191	88	25	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.15	+2.9
Career	—			22	22	95	393	89	40	7	100%	4.3	22.6%	10.2%	12.5%	1.7%	2.74	3.40	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			46	46	200	824	187	84	14	100%	4.3	22.6%	10.2%	12.5%	1.7%	2.74	3.40	+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Sinnard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.6%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.37	22.7%	12.6%	191	-0.18	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	90
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	88
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	88
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	87
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	87
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	87
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	87
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	20.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.266	5.22	16.1%	2.8%	185	+0.56	3.71	370	85
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	85
Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	85
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP	3.66	21.5%	12.3%	1.5%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	158	85
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	85
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	21.4%	10.8%	4.2%	.236	4.59	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.41	4.20	311	85
Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	18.5%	12.4%	1.4%	.301	5.54	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.68	3.86	260	83
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	21.7%	11.1%	1.8%	.326	4.43	21.1%	10.5%	112	+0.76	3.67	213	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	82
Michael Forret R 2025 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	21.9%	11.3%	3.0%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	253	82
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	82
David Griffin R 2028 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	19.2%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	5.47	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.95	4.52	239	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	60	22.5%	10.4%	1.14	4.49
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67