Luke Sinnard

P Rome Emperors

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1135ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	16	16	72	2.86	2.38	28.3%	8.9%	—	K 21.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.34
2026	23	MIX3 levels	14	14	52	2.94	2.68	28.9%	7.6%	—	K 21.9% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.58	4.58	21.9%	10.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBATL	4	4	25	4.51	4.48	22.4%	10.4%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBATL	6	6	36	4.46	4.44	22.7%	10.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsRyan Garcia (age 24) · Brody McCullough (age 23) · Trent Palmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%21.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.3%	2.86	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	21.4%	10.3%	11.0%	1.3%	2.86	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	72	304	86	27	3	100%	4.5	28.3%	8.9%	19.4%	1.0%	2.86	2.38	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.8%	2.94	4.03	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	2.8%	2.94	4.03	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	52	211	61	16	4	100%	3.7	28.9%	7.6%	21.3%	1.9%	2.94	2.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	10.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	57	241	54	25	7	100%	5.7	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	55	232	53	24	7	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.44	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	53	223	51	23	7	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	25	106	24	11	3	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.48	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	36	152	34	16	4	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.44	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	41	173	39	18	5	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	102	430	97	44	12	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.08	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	86	24	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.08	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		30	30	124	515	111	52	10	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	1.9%	2.90	3.62	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	828	179	84	16	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	1.9%	2.90	3.62	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 30 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.63 (+0.99)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×1.150	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 13 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.89 (+0.87)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.64%	—	×0.810	19.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.100	8.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 9 IPFIP 0.64 → 1.63 (+0.99)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.78%	—	×1.250	3.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.64 → 1.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Rome Emperors · 43 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.62 (+0.96)K% 24.9% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.86%	—	×0.770	19.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.29%	—	×1.150	9.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.819	×1.250	1.69%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 29 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.93 (+0.96)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.180	11.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.281	×1.300	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Sinnard (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.46	22.6%	12.3%	165	-0.12	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	89
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	85
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	83
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	81
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	80
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	80
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	80
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	79
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	79
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	79
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	22.4%	10.4%	1.11	4.51
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*