Ryan McDonagh

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1192ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKKC	1	1	3	0.00	0.77	50.0%	10.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 0.14
2026	20	MIX2 levels	18	16	67	4.30	4.46	23.7%	11.1%	—	K 17.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.93
2027PROJ	21	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.23	5.23	19.3%	12.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBKC	5	5	26	4.85	4.74	20.9%	11.2%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBKC	7	7	39	4.63	4.51	21.8%	10.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJuan Nuñez (age 21) · Ryan Harvey (age 22) · Christian Roa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%19.3%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	3.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	3.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	3.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.77	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	67	279	66	31	10	89%	3.7	17.1%	13.3%	3.8%	4.7%	4.30	5.93	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	67	279	66	31	10	89%	3.7	17.1%	13.3%	3.8%	4.7%	4.30	5.93	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	67	279	66	31	10	89%	3.7	23.7%	11.1%	12.5%	3.6%	4.30	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	12.7%	6.7%	3.2%	5.23	5.23	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	53	224	47	25	7	100%	5.3	20.9%	11.2%	9.6%	3.2%	4.98	4.87	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	53	224	49	23	7	100%	5.3	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.64	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	224	50	22	7	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.60	4.50	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	50	211	48	20	6	100%	5.5	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	50	212	49	20	6	100%	6.3	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.39	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	49	207	48	19	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.1%	4.42	4.43	+0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	46	196	45	19	6	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.5%	13.3%	3.2%	4.47	4.51	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	43	182	41	18	6	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.8%	12.9%	3.3%	4.57	4.64	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	26	110	23	12	3	100%	5.2	20.9%	11.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.85	4.74	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	39	165	36	17	5	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.63	4.51	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	44	186	42	18	5	100%	5.5	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.37	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	44	186	42	17	5	100%	5.5	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.28	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	46	194	45	18	5	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	2.8%	4.29	4.26	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	45	190	44	18	5	100%	5.6	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.29	4.30	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	44	186	43	18	5	100%	6.3	22.9%	9.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.34	4.38	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	41	173	39	17	5	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.50	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	328	1386	312	135	40	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.02	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	190	82	24	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		19	17	70	289	53	38	13	89%	3.7	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	4.6%	4.11	5.73	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	49	200	826	150	109	38	89%	3.7	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	4.6%	4.11	5.73	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 46 IPFIP 4.97 → 6.45 (+1.48)K% 23.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.47%	—	×0.740	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.76%	—	×1.180	15.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.97 → 6.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 21 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.71 (+1.41)K% 24.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.10%	—	×0.680	16.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.23%	—	×1.250	9.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan McDonagh (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	19.3%	12.7%	3.2%	—	4.67	21.7%	11.3%	159	-0.56	—	—	—
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	92
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	90
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	89
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	88
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	87
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	86
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	85
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	84
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	84
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	84
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	84
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	22.1%	10.1%	1.21	4.66
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*