Ryan McDonagh — OGILVIE

Ryan McDonagh P Columbia Fireflies

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%21.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	3.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	3.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	1	3	10	5	1	0	100%	3.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	18	16	67	279	66	31	10	89%	3.7	17.1%	13.3%	3.8%	4.7%	4.30	5.93	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	18	16	67	279	66	31	10	89%	3.7	17.1%	13.3%	3.8%	4.7%	4.30	5.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	KC	6	4	21	83	20	6	2	67%	3.5	24.1%	7.2%	16.9%	2.4%	2.57	3.30	—
2026	20	A RAW	KC	12	12	46	196	46	25	8	100%	3.8	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	4.1%	5.09	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	69	291	65	30	9	100%	4.9	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	72	305	72	29	9	100%	5.2	23.4%	9.6%	13.9%	2.9%	4.42	4.31	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	75	317	76	29	9	100%	5.4	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.17	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	77	325	80	28	9	100%	5.5	24.7%	8.7%	15.9%	2.9%	4.15	4.07	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	78	329	82	28	9	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.6%	16.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.01	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	78	329	83	28	9	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.01	3.98	+0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	77	324	82	28	9	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.6%	16.7%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	74	314	79	27	9	100%	6.2	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.11	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	71	300	75	27	9	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.0%	15.9%	3.1%	4.17	4.24	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	282	69	26	9	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.3%	15.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.41	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	62	263	63	25	9	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.6%	4.50	4.62	+0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	34	144	32	15	4	100%	4.9	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.41	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	53	224	52	21	6	100%	5.3	23.4%	9.6%	13.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.19	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	63	266	64	24	7	100%	5.2	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	2.7%	4.15	4.05	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	69	291	72	25	8	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.7%	15.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.95	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	71	300	75	26	8	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.6%	16.5%	2.6%	3.94	3.89	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	78	26	8	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.6%	3.89	3.86	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	78	26	8	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.6%	16.7%	2.7%	3.90	3.90	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	71	300	75	26	8	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	68	287	71	26	8	100%	6.2	24.9%	9.0%	15.9%	2.9%	4.04	4.11	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	63	266	65	25	8	100%	6.3	24.5%	9.3%	15.3%	3.1%	4.18	4.27	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	59	249	60	24	8	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.3%	4.35	4.47	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	696	2940	723	264	82	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	2.8%	4.08	3.69	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	208	76	24	100%	5.7	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	2.8%	4.08	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		19	17	70	289	53	38	13	89%	3.7	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	4.6%	4.11	5.73	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	49	200	826	150	109	38	89%	3.7	18.2%	13.1%	5.1%	4.6%	4.11	5.73	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan McDonagh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	21.9%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.33	23.4%	13.7%	216	-0.39	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	89
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	88
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	84
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	83
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	81
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	81
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	81
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	81
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	69	24.4%	9.1%	1.16	4.24
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59