Sterling Patick

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #672MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	12	11	32	4.55	2.59	22.5%	8.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.47
2025	20	MIX2 levels	25	21	92	4.00	2.73	26.9%	9.7%	—	K 19.9% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.82
2026	21	A+LAD	24	22	103	5.35	4.14	24.3%	10.9%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	14	14	72	5.19	5.19	18.7%	12.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAD	9	9	47	5.05	4.97	19.8%	11.3%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAD	12	12	69	4.87	4.79	20.5%	10.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff46Control47Command45FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsRylan Kaufman (age 22) · John Beller (age 22) · Dominic Perachi (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%18.7%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—50

CMD3545

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$4M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	16.0%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	4.55	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	16.0%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	4.55	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	0.7%	4.55	2.59	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	19.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.7%	4.00	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	19.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.7%	4.00	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	26.9%	9.7%	17.2%	1.2%	4.00	2.73	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.7%	5.35	5.15	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.7%	5.35	5.15	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	24.3%	10.9%	13.4%	3.0%	5.35	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	14	14	72	304	57	38	9	100%	5.1	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.1%	5.19	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	96	405	80	46	12	100%	5.3	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.90	0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	98	415	85	43	12	100%	5.5	20.5%	10.5%	10.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	100	420	88	42	13	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.61	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	100	420	89	42	13	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	98	414	88	41	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	95	402	85	41	13	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	91	383	80	40	13	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.4%	10.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.84	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	85	361	74	38	13	100%	6.1	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	3.5%	4.92	5.01	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	47	198	39	22	6	100%	5.2	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.2%	5.05	4.97	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	69	291	60	31	9	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.5%	10.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.79	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	81	342	72	34	11	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.75	4.68	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	87	367	78	36	11	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.65	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	89	376	80	38	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.2%	4.69	4.69	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	88	372	78	38	12	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	3.3%	4.74	4.77	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	84	355	74	37	12	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.4%	10.5%	3.4%	4.85	4.92	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	80	338	69	36	12	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	3.6%	5.00	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	106	624	2636	549	271	86	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.81	4.43	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	87	28	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	3.3%	4.81	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		61	54	227	1009	190	119	25	89%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	2.5%	4.69	4.39	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	48	200	890	168	105	22	89%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	2.5%	4.69	4.39	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sterling Patick (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	—	4.74	20.5%	9.9%	294	-0.45	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	94
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	91
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	88
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	87
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	87
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	85
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	85
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	83
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	83
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	83
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	82
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	82
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	82
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	81
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	93	20.6%	10.5%	1.20	4.79
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Roy Walker ('12-'22, -0 WAR*)	1.9	96	20.8%*	10.8%*	1.25*	5.07*
John Tsitouris ('57-'68, 1 WAR*)	3.3	110	19.5%*	9.7%*	1.30*	4.80*
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89