Talon Haley

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#281ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ALAA	21	20	88	4.72	2.83	31.5%	13.3%	—	K 23.3% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.99	4.99	24.1%	16.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	7	7	34	4.78	4.66	24.9%	13.9%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAA	10	10	51	4.55	4.42	25.4%	12.5%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$3M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 76%

CompsCaden Grice (age 22) · Dalton Rogers (age 22) · Sam Weatherly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%24.1%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M
Totals		$11M		$13M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	—
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	—
2026	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	31.5%	13.3%	18.2%	1.3%	4.72	2.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.1%	16.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.99	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	70	293	73	41	8	100%	5.0	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	2.7%	4.75	4.63	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	70	293	75	37	8	100%	5.3	25.4%	12.5%	13.0%	2.7%	4.52	4.39	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	70	293	76	34	8	100%	5.8	25.8%	11.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.35	4.24	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	280	73	31	8	100%	6.0	26.1%	11.0%	15.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.14	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	67	281	74	31	8	100%	6.1	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.12	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	65	274	72	30	7	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.1%	15.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	62	262	69	29	7	100%	6.2	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	243	63	28	7	100%	5.8	26.0%	11.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.31	4.37	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	57	242	67	26	8	100%	5.7	27.6%	10.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.29	4.28	+0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	51	214	58	24	7	100%	6.3	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.4%	4.41	4.48	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	44	185	50	22	7	100%	6.3	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.59	4.71	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	LAA	6	6	38	160	42	19	6	100%	6.3	26.3%	12.1%	14.1%	3.9%	4.81	4.96	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	34	144	36	20	4	100%	4.9	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.66	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	51	215	55	27	6	100%	5.1	25.4%	12.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.55	4.42	+0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	63	28	7	100%	5.8	25.8%	11.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.27	+0.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	65	27	7	100%	5.9	26.1%	11.0%	15.1%	2.7%	4.25	4.17	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	68	28	7	100%	6.1	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	2.7%	4.19	4.15	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	60	253	67	28	7	100%	6.0	26.3%	11.1%	15.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	64	27	7	100%	5.8	26.2%	11.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.27	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	55	232	60	27	7	100%	6.1	26.0%	11.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.40	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	54	228	63	25	7	100%	6.0	27.6%	10.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.32	4.31	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	48	203	55	23	7	100%	6.0	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.45	4.52	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	42	177	47	21	7	100%	6.0	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.7%	4.63	4.75	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	36	152	40	18	6	100%	6.0	26.3%	12.1%	14.1%	4.0%	4.85	5.00	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	105	615	2595	682	299	79	100%	5.9	26.3%	11.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.01	+10.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	222	97	26	100%	5.8	26.3%	11.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		21	20	88	384	90	60	7	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	46	200	876	204	137	15	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 88 IPFIP 2.84 → 4.05 (+1.21)K% 31.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.51%	—	×0.740	23.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.28%	—	×1.180	15.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.69%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Talon Haley (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.42	25.4%	12.8%	208	-0.57	—	—	—
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	92
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	86
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	85
Miguel Flores L 2024 · 4.30 FIP	19	SP	4.30	21.2%	16.5%	1.6%	.294	4.90	17.4%	-0.3%	127	+0.60	4.30	173	84
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	83
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	83
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	81
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	80
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	79
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	79
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.75	20.9%	8.5%	312	-0.24	4.12	463	79
Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	23.3%	19.0%	1.2%	.313	5.26	20.2%	4.5%	245	+1.04	4.22	337	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	78
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	78
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.69	19.9%	9.7%	345	-0.23	3.25	451	78
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	77
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	60	26.0%	12.0%	1.13	4.43
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Mike Remlinger ('06)	4.4	68	22.4%	11.3%	1.05	3.90
Rudy Seanez ('08)	2.8	43	23.1%	11.4%	0.93	4.11
Juan Cruz ('12)	3.3	60	23.1%	12.1%	0.92	4.05
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*