Talon Haley — OGILVIE

Talon Haley P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.9 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%24.2%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL3550

CMD2540

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$21M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	LAA	21	20	88	384	121	51	5	95%	4.2	31.5%	13.3%	18.2%	1.3%	4.72	2.84	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	90	381	93	48	11	100%	4.7	24.4%	12.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.68	4.61	+0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	95	400	101	46	11	100%	5.0	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	2.8%	4.48	4.37	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	98	415	107	44	12	100%	5.5	25.7%	10.7%	15.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	101	426	112	44	12	100%	5.6	26.2%	10.2%	16.0%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	102	431	115	43	12	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.0%	16.6%	2.8%	4.09	4.02	+1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	102	431	115	43	12	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.0%	16.8%	2.8%	4.04	4.00	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	101	425	114	43	12	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.1%	16.7%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	98	412	110	42	12	100%	6.1	26.7%	10.2%	16.4%	2.9%	4.09	4.13	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	93	394	104	41	12	100%	5.8	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	3.1%	4.19	4.26	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	88	370	96	40	12	100%	5.8	26.1%	10.7%	15.3%	3.3%	4.34	4.43	+0.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	82	345	89	38	12	100%	5.8	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	3.5%	4.52	4.63	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	76	319	87	34	12	100%	5.8	27.2%	10.7%	16.5%	3.7%	4.56	4.59	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	69	293	78	33	12	100%	5.8	26.7%	11.1%	15.6%	4.0%	4.73	4.84	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	44	186	45	24	5	100%	4.9	24.4%	12.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.64	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	69	291	73	33	8	100%	4.9	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.51	4.40	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	83	350	90	37	10	100%	5.2	25.7%	10.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.23	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	90	380	100	39	11	100%	5.6	26.2%	10.2%	16.0%	2.8%	4.21	4.12	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	94	397	105	40	11	100%	5.9	26.6%	10.0%	16.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.05	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	95	401	107	40	11	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.0%	16.8%	2.8%	4.07	4.03	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	96	405	109	41	12	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.1%	16.7%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	93	393	105	40	12	100%	5.8	26.7%	10.2%	16.4%	3.0%	4.12	4.16	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	89	376	99	39	12	100%	5.9	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	83	350	91	38	12	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.7%	15.3%	3.3%	4.38	4.47	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	78	329	85	36	12	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.1%	14.6%	3.6%	4.56	4.67	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	72	304	83	32	12	100%	6.0	27.2%	10.7%	16.5%	3.8%	4.60	4.63	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	66	279	74	31	11	100%	6.0	26.7%	11.1%	15.6%	4.1%	4.77	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	182	1050	4435	1165	470	139	100%	5.8	26.3%	10.6%	15.7%	3.1%	4.32	3.94	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	222	89	26	100%	5.8	26.3%	10.6%	15.7%	3.1%	4.32	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		21	20	88	384	90	60	7	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	46	200	876	204	137	15	95%	4.2	23.3%	15.7%	7.6%	1.7%	4.72	4.05	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Talon Haley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	24.2%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.39	25.1%	13.6%	283	-0.46	—	—	—
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	83
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	80
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	79
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	78
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	78
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	77
Steve Hajjar L 2022 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.17	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.50	3.67	141	77
Kris Bubic L 2018 · 3.97 FIP	20	SP	3.97	21.0%	13.8%	1.6%	.367	3.99	22.5%	13.0%	329	+0.02	2.16	750	76
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	76
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	76
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	76
Sam Hentges L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	20	SP	4.60	19.0%	12.0%	2.9%	.362	4.14	18.1%	6.5%	260	-0.46	2.22	609	75
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	75
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	74
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	74
Javier Atencio L 2022 · 3.80 FIP	20	SP-	3.80	21.0%	16.1%	0.8%	.299	5.66	12.9%	-5.5%	41	+1.86	2.83	164	73
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	73
Antonio Pujols L 2018 · 3.71 FIP	20	SP	3.71	19.5%	15.0%	0.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	106	73
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	87	26.1%	10.7%	1.18	4.31
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98