Jake Knapp — OGILVIE

Jake Knapp P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 270 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%22.6%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	11	11	37	159	41	22	7	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	11	11	37	159	41	22	7	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	11	11	37	159	41	22	7	100%	3.3	25.8%	13.8%	11.9%	4.4%	5.65	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	6	6	36	152	35	17	5	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.64	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	16	68	15	7	2	100%	5.3	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.64	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	66	15	7	2	100%	5.2	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	191	89	25	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		11	11	37	159	33	24	8	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	60	200	867	181	132	46	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Knapp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.6%	11.3%	3.1%	—	4.64	22.9%	11.8%	36	-0.06	—	—	—
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	74
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	74
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	74
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	73
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	73
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	72
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	72
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	72
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	72
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	72
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	71
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	71
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	70
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	70
Justin Dunn R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP	4.44	22.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.231	6.06	16.1%	3.2%	60	+1.62	3.54	607	70
Riley Thompson R 2022 · 5.32 FIP	26	SP	5.32	21.7%	14.7%	4.0%	.289	5.08	17.3%	6.7%	189	-0.24	4.53	340	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	22.8%	11.2%	1.19	4.67
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58