Jakob Wright — OGILVIE

Jakob Wright P Great Lakes Loons

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	9	9	20	90	24	8	0	100%	2.2	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.20	2.76	—
2025	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	9	9	20	90	24	8	0	100%	2.2	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	0.0%	3.20	2.76	—
2025	22	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	9	9	20	90	24	8	0	100%	2.2	26.7%	8.9%	17.8%	0.0%	3.20	1.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	17	12	56	267	67	48	3	71%	3.3	19.3%	20.7%	-1.4%	1.4%	6.63	4.86	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	17	12	56	267	67	48	3	71%	3.3	19.3%	20.7%	-1.4%	1.4%	6.63	4.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAD	17	12	56	267	67	48	3	71%	3.3	25.1%	18.0%	7.1%	1.1%	6.63	3.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	56	236	53	25	7	100%	5.6	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.48	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	57	239	55	24	7	100%	5.7	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.40	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	57	239	55	24	7	100%	6.3	23.2%	10.2%	13.0%	2.8%	4.40	4.37	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	56	236	55	24	7	100%	6.2	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.41	4.41	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAD	4	4	24	101	23	11	3	100%	6.0	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.55	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	37	16	5	100%	6.3	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	45	190	44	19	6	100%	5.6	23.2%	10.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.44	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	48	203	47	21	6	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	26	154	651	150	67	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.09	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	87	25	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		26	21	75	357	69	65	4	81%	2.9	19.4%	18.1%	1.3%	1.1%	5.73	4.33	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	56	200	948	184	172	10	81%	2.9	19.4%	18.1%	1.3%	1.1%	5.73	4.33	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jakob Wright (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.42	22.9%	12.5%	169	-0.20	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	85
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	84
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	82
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	80
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	78
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	77
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	77
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	76
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	76
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	76
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	75
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	75
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	75
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	75
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	75
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	74
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	73
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	22.7%	10.4%	1.10	4.47
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33