Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
22
21
99
380
141
35
8
95%
4.5
29.7%
10.2%
19.5%
2.5%
1.54
3.27
—
2026
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
22
21
99
380
141
35
8
95%
4.5
29.7%
10.2%
19.5%
2.5%
1.54
3.27
—
2026
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
22
21
99
380
141
35
8
95%
4.5
37.1%
9.2%
27.9%
2.1%
1.54
2.37
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
22
MLB
BAL
19
19
95
401
113
33
12
100%
5.0
28.2%
8.3%
19.9%
2.9%
3.74
3.74
+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
23
MLBMLE
BAL
25
25
133
560
159
44
16
100%
5.3
28.3%
7.9%
20.5%
2.9%
3.70
3.65
+2.0
2029
24
MLBMLE
BAL
29
29
162
684
194
52
19
100%
5.6
28.4%
7.6%
20.8%
2.8%
3.65
3.60
+2.5
2030
25
MLBMLE
BAL
30
30
177
748
213
56
21
100%
5.9
28.5%
7.5%
21.0%
2.8%
3.61
3.57
+2.9
2031
26
MLBMLE
BAL
30
30
177
748
214
56
21
100%
5.9
28.6%
7.4%
21.1%
2.8%
3.59
3.56
+2.9
2032
27
MLBMLE
BAL
29
29
174
737
210
55
21
100%
6.0
28.6%
7.5%
21.0%
2.9%
3.60
3.60
+2.7
2033
28
MLBMLE
BAL
28
28
169
715
203
55
21
100%
6.0
28.4%
7.7%
20.8%
3.0%
3.65
3.69
+2.5
2034
29
MLBMLE
BAL
27
27
162
683
193
54
21
100%
6.0
28.2%
7.9%
20.3%
3.1%
3.75
3.82
+2.1
2035
30
MLBMLE
BAL
25
25
152
642
179
53
21
100%
6.1
27.9%
8.2%
19.7%
3.3%
3.90
3.99
+1.6
2036
31
MLBMLE
BAL
24
24
142
598
164
51
21
100%
5.9
27.5%
8.6%
18.9%
3.6%
4.08
4.20
+1.2
2037
32
MLBMLE
BAL
22
22
131
554
149
50
21
100%
6.0
27.0%
8.9%
18.1%
3.8%
4.28
4.42
+0.7
2038
33
MLBMLE
BAL
20
20
120
508
135
48
21
100%
6.0
26.5%
9.4%
17.1%
4.1%
4.52
4.67
+0.3
2039
34
MLBMLE
BAL
18
18
110
462
120
46
20
100%
6.1
25.9%
9.9%
16.1%
4.4%
4.78
4.95
-0.1
2028
23
MLBCTX
BAL
12
12
66
279
79
22
8
100%
5.5
28.3%
7.9%
20.5%
3.0%
3.77
3.72
+1.0
2029
24
MLBCTX
BAL
20
20
114
481
137
37
14
100%
5.7
28.4%
7.6%
20.8%
3.0%
3.72
3.67
+1.8
2030
25
MLBCTX
BAL
25
25
144
608
173
45
18
100%
5.8
28.5%
7.5%
21.0%
3.0%
3.68
3.64
+2.3
2031
26
MLBCTX
BAL
26
26
155
654
187
49
19
100%
6.0
28.6%
7.4%
21.1%
3.0%
3.66
3.63
+2.5
2032
27
MLBCTX
BAL
26
26
158
667
191
50
20
100%
6.1
28.6%
7.5%
21.0%
3.0%
3.67
3.67
+2.5
2033
28
MLBCTX
BAL
26
26
156
659
187
51
21
100%
6.0
28.4%
7.7%
20.8%
3.1%
3.72
3.76
+2.3
2034
29
MLBCTX
BAL
25
25
150
633
179
50
21
100%
6.0
28.2%
7.9%
20.3%
3.3%
3.83
3.90
+1.9
2035
30
MLBCTX
BAL
24
24
142
600
167
49
21
100%
5.9
27.9%
8.2%
19.7%
3.5%
3.98
4.07
+1.5
2036
31
MLBCTX
BAL
22
22
135
570
156
49
21
100%
6.1
27.5%
8.6%
18.9%
3.7%
4.17
4.29
+1.1
2037
32
MLBCTX
BAL
21
21
125
528
143
47
21
100%
6.0
27.0%
8.9%
18.1%
4.0%
4.37
4.51
+0.7
2038
33
MLBCTX
BAL
19
19
114
481
128
45
21
100%
6.0
26.5%
9.4%
17.1%
4.3%
4.62
4.77
+0.3
2039
34
MLBCTX
BAL
16
16
99
418
108
41
19
100%
6.2
25.9%
9.9%
16.1%
4.6%
4.89
5.06
-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
263
263
1559
6582
1836
536
224
100%
5.9
27.9%
8.1%
19.8%
3.4%
3.97
3.64
+23.8
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
844
236
69
29
100%
5.9
27.9%
8.1%
19.8%
3.4%
3.97
3.64
+3.1
Career
—
MLE
22
21
99
380
113
39
10
95%
4.5
29.7%
10.2%
19.5%
2.5%
1.54
3.27
+21.2
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
44
42
200
765
227
78
19
95%
4.5
29.7%
10.2%
19.5%
2.5%
1.54
3.27
+2.3
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.