Aidan Cremarosa

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#711ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ATB	17	16	77	2.82	2.30	29.8%	6.0%	—	K 22.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.31
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.01	4.01	22.0%	6.4%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBTB	4	4	20	3.95	3.91	22.7%	6.5%	0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBTB	6	6	33	3.92	3.88	23.1%	6.5%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 3.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsDylan DeLucia (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23) · Cody Laweryson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.01

FIP4.01

K%22.0%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	16	77	302	90	18	5	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	—
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	16	77	302	90	18	5	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	—
2026	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	17	16	77	302	90	18	5	94%	4.5	29.8%	6.0%	23.8%	1.7%	2.82	2.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	6.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.01	4.01	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	66	279	63	18	8	100%	5.5	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.9%	3.99	3.95	+1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	64	269	62	18	8	100%	5.8	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	2.9%	3.96	3.92	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	64	269	63	18	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	6.6%	16.7%	2.9%	3.95	3.92	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	62	263	61	18	8	100%	6.2	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	2.9%	3.97	3.97	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	60	251	58	17	8	100%	6.0	23.2%	6.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.02	4.05	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	55	233	54	17	7	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.2%	4.12	4.18	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	50	210	47	16	7	100%	6.2	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	3.4%	4.26	4.36	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	20	84	19	5	2	100%	5.0	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.8%	3.95	3.91	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	33	139	32	9	4	100%	5.5	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	2.8%	3.92	3.88	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	41	173	40	11	5	100%	5.9	23.3%	6.6%	16.7%	2.8%	3.91	3.88	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	46	194	45	13	6	100%	5.8	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	2.8%	3.93	3.93	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	47	198	46	14	6	100%	5.9	23.2%	6.9%	16.3%	2.9%	3.97	4.00	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	46	194	45	14	6	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.1%	4.07	4.13	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	43	182	41	13	6	100%	6.1	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	3.3%	4.21	4.31	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	275	1162	268	80	34	100%	6.0	23.0%	6.9%	16.2%	2.9%	4.00	3.64	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	58	25	100%	6.0	23.0%	6.9%	16.2%	2.9%	4.00	3.64	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		17	16	77	302	67	21	7	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	788	174	55	17	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 77 IPFIP 2.25 → 3.31 (+1.06)K% 29.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.80%	—	×0.740	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.96%	—	×1.180	7.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Cremarosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.93	23.0%	16.5%	194	-0.08	—	—	—
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	86
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	86
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	85
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	84
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	83
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	83
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	83
Mariano Salomon R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	21	SP-	3.48	21.0%	6.9%	2.3%	.282	4.85	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.37	2.60	158	82
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	82
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	81
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	81
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	81
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	81
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	22.9%	6.8%	1.15	4.03
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*