Aidan Cremarosa — OGILVIE

Aidan Cremarosa P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.7 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%23.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	16	77	302	90	18	5	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	16	77	302	90	18	5	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TB	17	16	77	302	90	18	5	94%	4.5	29.8%	6.0%	23.8%	1.7%	2.82	2.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	78	329	78	26	10	100%	5.2	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	2.9%	4.13	4.08	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	80	337	82	26	10	100%	5.7	24.3%	7.8%	16.5%	2.9%	4.07	4.01	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	81	341	84	26	10	100%	5.8	24.6%	7.7%	16.9%	2.9%	4.02	3.97	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	81	341	84	26	10	100%	6.2	24.8%	7.7%	17.1%	2.9%	3.98	3.95	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	80	336	90	23	10	100%	6.1	26.7%	7.0%	19.8%	3.0%	3.83	3.72	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	77	326	87	23	10	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.1%	19.5%	3.1%	3.82	3.81	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	74	311	82	23	10	100%	6.1	26.4%	7.3%	19.1%	3.2%	3.89	3.94	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	69	293	76	22	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	7.6%	18.4%	3.4%	4.02	4.11	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	65	273	70	22	10	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.0%	17.7%	3.6%	4.20	4.32	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	38	160	38	13	5	100%	5.4	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	3.0%	4.18	4.13	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	56	236	57	18	7	100%	5.6	24.3%	7.8%	16.5%	3.0%	4.12	4.06	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	66	279	69	21	8	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.7%	16.9%	3.0%	4.07	4.02	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	71	300	74	23	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	7.7%	17.1%	3.0%	4.03	4.00	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	72	304	81	21	9	100%	6.0	26.7%	7.0%	19.8%	3.0%	3.88	3.77	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	71	300	80	21	9	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.1%	19.5%	3.1%	3.87	3.86	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	69	291	77	21	10	100%	5.8	26.4%	7.3%	19.1%	3.3%	3.94	3.99	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	65	274	71	21	10	100%	5.9	26.0%	7.6%	18.4%	3.5%	4.08	4.17	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	66	21	10	100%	6.1	25.6%	8.0%	17.7%	3.7%	4.26	4.38	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	568	2398	613	180	77	100%	5.9	25.5%	7.5%	18.0%	3.2%	4.03	3.65	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	216	63	27	100%	5.9	25.5%	7.5%	18.0%	3.2%	4.03	3.65	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		17	16	77	302	67	21	7	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	788	174	55	17	94%	4.5	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	2.2%	2.82	3.31	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Cremarosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	—	4.02	24.2%	16.4%	238	-0.17	—	—	—
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	90
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	89
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	82
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	79
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	79
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	79
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	79
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	79
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	78
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	78
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	77
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	71	25.3%	7.6%	1.19	4.00
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59