Keyner Benitez

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP49ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	16	13	70	2.71	3.03	27.3%	9.9%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.90
2025	19	MIX2 levels	15	13	54	3.17	3.17	21.3%	13.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.06
2026	20	AMIA	5	4	19	2.79	3.36	31.2%	11.7%	—	K 23.1% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	17	17	81	5.10	5.10	21.1%	14.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	12	12	59	4.73	4.59	23.1%	12.4%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	22	22	116	4.46	4.31	24.3%	11.2%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$6M2032Arb-2$9M2033Arb-3$13M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control44Command46FB velo54

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsJohn Beller (age 22) · Rylan Kaufman (age 22) · Dominic Perachi (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL3545

CMD3545

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$8M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+1.5	$8M	+$0.5M
Totals		$31M		$35M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	15.9%	17.3%	-1.4%	0.8%	3.74	4.38	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	46	188	44	26	1	100%	4.2	23.4%	13.8%	9.6%	0.5%	3.74	3.17	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.71	4.90	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	3.1%	2.71	4.90	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	70	282	77	28	5	81%	4.4	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	1.8%	2.71	3.03	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	15.3%	15.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	3.17	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	15.3%	15.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	3.17	4.06	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	54	239	51	31	1	87%	3.6	21.3%	13.0%	8.4%	0.4%	3.17	3.17	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.4%	2.79	4.75	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	23.1%	13.8%	9.3%	3.4%	2.79	4.75	—
2026	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	5	4	19	77	24	9	2	80%	3.9	31.2%	11.7%	19.5%	2.6%	2.79	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	17	17	81	342	72	49	10	100%	4.8	21.1%	14.3%	6.8%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	121	511	118	63	15	100%	5.0	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.81	4.67	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	160	673	164	75	19	100%	5.3	24.3%	11.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.54	4.39	+1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	175	739	185	77	21	100%	5.6	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.22	+1.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	748	190	75	21	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.8%	4.21	4.12	+1.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	748	192	74	21	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.10	+1.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	174	737	189	74	21	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	+1.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	169	715	183	73	21	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.22	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	162	683	173	71	21	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	3.1%	4.29	4.35	+1.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	152	642	160	69	21	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.7%	14.2%	3.3%	4.43	4.53	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	142	598	147	66	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	3.5%	4.61	4.73	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	131	554	133	63	21	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.7%	3.8%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	120	508	120	60	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	59	249	57	31	7	100%	4.9	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.73	4.59	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	116	490	119	55	13	100%	5.3	24.3%	11.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.31	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	145	612	153	64	16	100%	5.6	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	2.6%	4.26	4.14	+1.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	156	659	168	66	17	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.6%	4.13	4.04	+1.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	162	684	176	68	18	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.6%	4.06	4.02	+1.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	162	684	176	69	18	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.6%	2.7%	4.06	4.06	+1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	158	667	170	68	19	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.2%	15.4%	2.8%	4.11	4.14	+1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	154	650	165	68	19	100%	5.9	25.3%	10.4%	14.9%	2.9%	4.21	4.27	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	144	608	152	65	19	100%	6.0	25.0%	10.7%	14.2%	3.1%	4.34	4.44	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	135	570	140	63	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	3.3%	4.51	4.63	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	125	528	127	60	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.7%	3.6%	4.72	4.86	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	114	481	114	57	18	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.9%	11.7%	3.8%	4.94	5.10	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		278	278	1631	6885	1717	734	203	100%	5.9	24.9%	10.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	3.96	+18.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	90	25	100%	5.9	24.9%	10.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		47	41	189	786	135	117	14	87%	4.0	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	1.8%	3.10	4.50	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	833	143	124	15	87%	4.0	17.2%	14.8%	2.4%	1.8%	3.10	4.50	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keyner Benitez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	21.1%	14.3%	2.9%	—	4.40	24.3%	13.0%	456	-0.70	—	—	—
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	91
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	89
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	86
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	86
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	86
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	86
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	84
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	84
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	83
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	81
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	81
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	81
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	81
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	80
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.7	149	24.7%	10.9%	1.19	4.46
Bobby Witt ('86-'01, 17 WAR*)	12.3	164	22.7%*	11.8%*	1.00*	4.69*
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24
Ubaldo Jiménez ('17)	9.3	170	21.3%	10.5%	0.90	4.34
Scott Kazmir ('21)	8.5	155	22.1%	9.4%	1.02	4.02