Elier Morillo

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Miami	11	8	31	3.23	1.14	40.9%	12.1%	—	K 27.8% · BB 15.2% · FIP 2.67
2026	20	AMIA	22	5	58	4.81	3.53	39.4%	19.7%	—	K 29.2% · BB 23.2% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.32	5.32	27.4%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	20	0	21	4.98	4.82	27.9%	16.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	30	0	32	4.67	4.48	28.3%	14.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 3.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsColby Langford (age 22) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Spencer Giesting (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%27.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	9	6	27	128	34	13	2	67%	3.0	18.1%	12.7%	5.4%	1.7%	7.09	4.12	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	9	6	27	128	34	13	2	67%	3.0	26.6%	10.2%	16.4%	1.6%	7.09	2.99	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	8	31	132	54	16	0	73%	2.8	27.8%	15.2%	12.7%	0.0%	3.23	2.67	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	8	31	132	54	16	0	73%	2.8	27.8%	15.2%	12.7%	0.0%	3.23	2.67	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	8	31	132	54	16	0	73%	2.8	40.9%	12.1%	28.8%	0.0%	3.23	1.14	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	5	58	269	106	53	6	23%	2.6	29.2%	23.2%	5.9%	2.9%	4.81	5.17	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	5	58	269	106	53	6	23%	2.6	29.2%	23.2%	5.9%	2.9%	4.81	5.17	—
2026	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	5	58	269	106	53	6	23%	2.6	39.4%	19.7%	19.7%	2.2%	4.81	3.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	27.4%	20.0%	7.4%	2.9%	5.32	5.32	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	183	51	30	5	0%	1.1	27.9%	16.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.82	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	183	52	26	5	0%	1.1	28.3%	14.4%	13.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.48	+0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	183	52	24	5	0%	1.1	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.25	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	39	0	41	174	50	21	5	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.9%	16.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.10	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	39	0	41	175	51	21	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	11.9%	17.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.08	+0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	38	0	40	171	49	20	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	11.9%	17.1%	2.9%	4.13	4.12	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	25	15	3	0%	1.1	27.9%	16.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.82	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	32	135	38	19	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	14.4%	13.9%	2.8%	4.67	4.48	+0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	34	0	36	152	43	20	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	12.9%	15.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.25	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	34	0	36	152	44	18	4	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.9%	16.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.10	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	36	0	38	160	47	19	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	11.9%	17.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.08	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	35	0	37	156	45	19	4	0%	1.1	29.0%	11.9%	17.1%	2.9%	4.13	4.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	0	200	846	243	110	24	0%	1.0	28.7%	13.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.38	3.88	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	242	110	24	0%	1.1	28.7%	13.0%	15.7%	2.8%	4.38	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		42	19	115	529	138	99	10	45%	2.7	26.1%	18.7%	7.5%	1.9%	4.92	4.29	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	33	200	917	240	171	17	45%	2.7	26.1%	18.7%	7.5%	1.9%	4.92	4.29	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 58 IPFIP 3.49 → 5.17 (+1.68)K% 39.4% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.41%	—	×0.740	29.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.70%	—	×1.180	23.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Miami · 31 IPFIP 1.18 → 2.67 (+1.49)K% 40.9% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.680	27.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.250	15.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.423	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 185).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Marlins · 27 IPFIP 3.00 → 4.12 (+1.12)K% 26.6% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.680	18.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×1.250	12.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.285	×1.400	1.70%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elier Morillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	27.4%	20.0%	2.9%	—	4.52	28.2%	13.6%	130	-0.80	—	—	—
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	78
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	75
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	72
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	72
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	72
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	71
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	71
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	71
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	70
Emmanuel Martinez L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	20	SW	4.33	26.2%	23.6%	0.8%	.358	6.08	17.4%	-11.2%	36	+1.75	2.52	137	69
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	68
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	67
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	67
Braian Salazar L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	22.0%	20.2%	1.7%	.344	4.11	21.7%	5.1%	107	-0.60	3.58	158	66
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	66
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	66
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	66
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	66
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	65
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	41	28.4%	14.1%	1.10	4.54
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*