Elier Morillo — OGILVIE

Elier Morillo P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%24.6%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	9	6	27	128	34	13	2	67%	3.0	18.1%	12.7%	5.4%	1.7%	7.09	4.12	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	9	6	27	128	34	13	2	67%	3.0	18.1%	12.7%	5.4%	1.7%	7.09	4.12	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	9	6	27	128	34	13	2	67%	3.0	26.6%	10.2%	16.4%	1.6%	7.09	2.99	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	8	31	132	54	16	0	73%	2.8	27.8%	15.2%	12.7%	0.0%	3.23	2.67	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	8	31	132	54	16	0	73%	2.8	27.8%	15.2%	12.7%	0.0%	3.23	2.67	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	8	31	132	54	16	0	73%	2.8	40.9%	12.1%	28.8%	0.0%	3.23	1.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	5	58	269	106	53	6	23%	2.6	29.2%	23.2%	5.9%	2.9%	4.81	5.17	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	5	58	269	106	53	6	23%	2.6	29.2%	23.2%	5.9%	2.9%	4.81	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIA	22	5	58	269	106	53	6	23%	2.6	39.4%	19.7%	19.7%	2.2%	4.81	3.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	57	0	60	252	63	30	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.46	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	264	68	29	7	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	2.8%	4.34	4.22	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	274	72	27	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.8%	4.16	4.05	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	63	0	66	281	75	27	8	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.5%	17.2%	2.7%	4.02	3.93	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	284	77	26	8	0%	1.1	27.1%	9.2%	17.9%	2.7%	3.92	3.85	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	284	78	26	8	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.2%	18.1%	2.7%	3.86	3.83	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	63	0	66	280	76	26	8	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.2%	18.0%	2.8%	3.86	3.87	+0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	271	74	26	8	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	3.91	3.95	+0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	30	15	3	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	2.7%	4.46	4.38	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	44	0	46	194	50	21	5	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	2.6%	4.26	4.14	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	52	0	55	232	61	23	6	0%	1.1	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.97	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	56	0	59	249	67	24	6	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.95	3.86	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	59	0	62	262	71	24	7	0%	1.1	27.1%	9.2%	17.9%	2.6%	3.85	3.78	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	60	0	63	266	73	24	7	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.2%	18.1%	2.6%	3.79	3.76	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	60	0	63	266	73	25	7	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.2%	18.0%	2.6%	3.78	3.79	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	58	0	61	258	70	24	7	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	2.7%	3.83	3.87	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		417	0	437	1847	493	180	49	0%	1.0	26.7%	9.7%	17.0%	2.6%	3.95	3.52	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	225	82	22	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.7%	17.0%	2.6%	3.95	3.52	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		42	19	115	529	138	99	10	45%	2.7	26.1%	18.7%	7.5%	1.9%	4.92	4.29	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	33	200	917	240	171	17	45%	2.7	26.1%	18.7%	7.5%	1.9%	4.92	4.29	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elier Morillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	24.6%	13.5%	2.9%	—	4.24	25.6%	14.7%	187	-0.46	—	—	—
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	81
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	81
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	80
Adam Serwinowski L 2023 · 3.84 FIP	19	SP-	3.84	27.3%	18.7%	1.2%	.255	4.64	21.8%	8.3%	321	+0.80	3.84	349	74
Raúl Alcantara L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	20	SP-	4.31	19.6%	12.8%	2.3%	.295	4.50	19.0%	4.2%	229	+0.19	3.82	396	73
Steven Pérez L 2021 · 5.07 FIP	20	SW	5.07	18.3%	11.4%	3.8%	.305	4.81	20.2%	5.6%	116	-0.26	3.71	354	73
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	73
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	73
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	73
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	73
Benony Robles L 2021 · 3.65 FIP	20	SP-	3.65	22.3%	10.1%	2.1%	.262	5.09	19.2%	4.5%	135	+1.44	3.65	271	73
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	72
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	72
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	71
Victor Cabreja L 2022 · 3.79 FIP	20	SW	3.79	17.0%	13.0%	0.9%	.348	4.42	11.2%	1.7%	146	+0.63	3.79	254	70
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	70
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	70
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.49	534	70
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	177	70
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	60	26.5%	10.0%	1.07	4.09
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22