Braian Salazar — OGILVIE

Braian Salazar P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 LHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%22.3%

BB%20.2%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	7	7	15	59	12	5	2	100%	2.1	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%	4.9%	4.30	5.94	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	7	7	15	59	12	5	2	100%	2.1	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	3.4%	4.30	4.26	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	3	0	8	30	13	2	1	0%	2.7	43.3%	6.7%	36.7%	3.3%	3.38	2.11	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	3	0	8	30	13	2	1	0%	2.7	43.3%	6.7%	36.7%	3.3%	3.38	2.11	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	3	0	8	30	13	2	1	0%	2.7	43.3%	6.7%	36.7%	3.3%	3.38	2.23	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	37	176	55	29	2	20%	1.9	22.0%	20.2%	1.8%	1.7%	5.11	4.71	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	37	176	55	29	2	20%	1.9	22.0%	20.2%	1.8%	1.7%	5.11	4.71	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	4	37	176	55	29	2	20%	1.9	31.2%	16.5%	14.8%	1.1%	5.11	3.18	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	56	273	80	45	0	6%	1.6	21.9%	18.4%	3.5%	0.0%	5.50	3.58	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	56	273	80	45	0	6%	1.6	21.9%	18.4%	3.5%	0.0%	5.50	3.58	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	2	56	273	80	45	0	6%	1.6	29.3%	16.5%	12.8%	0.0%	5.50	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	38	0	55	240	67	31	5	0%	1.4	21.5%	14.9%	6.6%	2.6%	4.25	4.60	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	38	0	55	240	67	31	5	0%	1.4	21.5%	14.9%	6.6%	2.6%	4.25	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	38	0	55	240	67	31	5	0%	1.4	27.9%	12.9%	15.0%	2.1%	4.25	3.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	54	0	57	239	56	41	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	17.1%	6.2%	2.6%	5.24	5.09	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	56	0	59	248	60	37	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	15.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.93	4.76	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	57	0	60	254	62	35	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	13.7%	10.9%	2.6%	4.69	4.54	+0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	258	64	33	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	12.8%	12.2%	2.6%	4.51	4.40	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	258	65	33	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	2.6%	4.43	4.37	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	27	0	28	118	28	20	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	17.1%	6.2%	2.6%	5.24	5.09	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	41	0	43	182	44	27	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	15.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.93	4.76	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	48	0	50	211	52	29	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	13.7%	10.9%	2.6%	4.69	4.54	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	51	0	54	228	57	29	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	12.8%	12.2%	2.6%	4.51	4.40	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	53	0	56	236	59	30	6	0%	1.1	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	2.6%	4.43	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		219	0	230	972	239	135	25	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.9%	10.6%	2.6%	4.70	4.19	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	117	22	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.9%	10.6%	2.6%	4.70	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		102	13	170	778	171	130	13	13%	1.7	22.0%	16.7%	5.3%	1.7%	4.81	4.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	15	200	914	201	152	15	13%	1.7	22.0%	16.7%	5.3%	1.7%	4.81	4.27	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braian Salazar (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	22.3%	20.2%	2.6%	—	4.79	24.0%	8.8%	176	-0.79	—	—	—
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	86
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	84
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	84
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	83
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	83
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	81
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	80
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	80
Felix Cabrera L 2023 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	17.9%	18.6%	1.2%	.258	5.43	13.8%	-5.3%	62	+0.81	3.96	132	80
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	21	SU	4.55	25.7%	21.3%	1.7%	.389	5.41	22.7%	0.2%	76	+0.86	2.58	155	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	80
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	78
Jorge Benitez L 2021 · 4.53 FIP	22	SU	4.53	21.6%	18.2%	1.7%	.368	4.40	22.1%	6.2%	153	-0.13	3.30	314	78
Nathanael Heredia L 2022 · 4.67 FIP	21	SU	4.67	19.4%	18.2%	1.6%	.289	4.77	17.4%	-0.7%	110	+0.10	3.74	290	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	57	24.2%	14.9%	0.99	4.85
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84