Braian Salazar
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%10.9%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 7 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 13.8% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 4.30 | 5.98 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 3 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 20 | 4 | 37 | 176 | 55 | 29 | 2 | 22.0% | 20.2% | 1.7% | 5.11 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 34 | 2 | 56 | 273 | 80 | 45 | 0 | 21.9% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 5.50 | 3.58 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 24 | 5 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 52 | 219 | 53 | 25 | 5 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.41 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 50 | 22 | 5 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 53 | 22 | 6 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 55 | 21 | 6 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 25.7% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 56 | 20 | 6 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 25.5% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 48 | 19 | 5 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | SD | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 13 | 120 | 559 | 128 | 95 | 7 | 22.8% | 17.0% | 1.2% | 5.01 | 4.00 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 22 | 200 | 929 | 213 | 158 | 12 | 22.8% | 17.0% | 1.2% | 5.01 | 4.00 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braian Salazar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.09 | 24.6% | 14.5% | 152 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 90 |
| Seth Clark L 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 90 |
| Brendan Nail L 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 86 |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 5.76 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 48 | +1.87 | 2.90 | 113 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 85 |
| Yenfri Sosa L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.45 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 128 | 85 |
| Andrew Walling L 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 85 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 84 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 84 |
| Luke Fox L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.25 | 21.8% | 19.2% | 2.8% | .284 | 4.16 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 114 | -1.09 | 3.20 | 144 | 83 |
| Jeff Belge L 2028 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 24.0% | 18.8% | 2.7% | .343 | 3.71 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 131 | -1.21 | 3.32 | 175 | 83 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.1% | .266 | 3.91 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.56 | 2.97 | 146 | 82 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 82 |
| Felipe De La Cruz L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.62 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 2.8% | .387 | 3.83 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 278 | -0.79 | 3.12 | 355 | 82 |
| Brian Marconi L 2029 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 82 |
| Jorger Petri L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.67 | 19.1% | 15.2% | 2.3% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 147 | 82 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.31 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.64 | 4.67 | 101 | 82 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.41 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.91 | 4.41 | 128 | 81 |
| Evan Taylor L 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.32 | 28.1% | 16.5% | 2.7% | .304 | 3.18 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.08 | 163 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $7M | $17M | +$10M | ||