Joseph Menefee
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.8%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%11.2%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2525
CMD4545
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.69 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 31 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 66 | 35 | 3 | 21.9% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 5.48 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 20 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 59 | 24 | 1 | 28.6% | 17.4% | 0.6% | 3.68 | 3.19 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 32 | 0 | 49 | 218 | 66 | 33 | 7 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 23.14 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 40 | 23 | 5 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 41 | 180 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 24.9% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 5.86 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 24.3% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 23.6% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 19 | 5 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 22.7% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 5.15 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 141 | 641 | 156 | 116 | 13 | 24.4% | 18.1% | 2.1% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 0 | 200 | 907 | 221 | 164 | 18 | 24.4% | 18.1% | 2.1% | 4.52 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joseph Menefee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.78 | 24.2% | 10.7% | 113 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 85 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 85 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 83 |
| Trey Jeans L 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 82 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 81 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.25 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 52 | +0.05 | 3.12 | 167 | 81 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.38 | 23.4% | 18.1% | 1.8% | .305 | 4.99 | 19.2% | 3.1% | 103 | +0.61 | 3.14 | 199 | 81 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 80 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 80 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 80 |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.6% | .283 | 4.60 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.45 | 3.97 | 165 | 80 |
| John Beller L 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 170 | 79 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 24.4% | 15.9% | 1.3% | .278 | 2.90 | 27.5% | 15.4% | 25 | -0.86 | 2.50 | 155 | 79 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 79 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.95 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 3.3% | .294 | 3.99 | 17.7% | 4.9% | 37 | -0.96 | 3.58 | 206 | 79 |
| Adam McCreery L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 20.7% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 207 | 79 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 78 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 78 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 78 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.