Joseph Menefee
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116126vR 135
ERA5.14
FIP5.14
K%25.1%
BB%17.3%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 4.2% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 1.52 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 4.2% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 1.41 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 31 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 66 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.9% | 18.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 5.48 | 4.45 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 31 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 66 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.6% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 1.3% | 5.48 | 3.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 20 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 59 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 28.6% | 17.4% | 11.2% | 0.5% | 3.68 | 3.16 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 20 | 0 | 37 | 159 | 59 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 37.1% | 15.1% | 22.0% | 0.6% | 3.68 | 2.20 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 32 | 0 | 49 | 218 | 66 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 17.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 32 | 0 | 49 | 218 | 66 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 30.3% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 4.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 12 | 0 | 13 | 75 | 18 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 27.9% | -8.4% | 3.2% | 9.24 | 6.74 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 63 | 44 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 72 | 326 | 81 | 63 | 9 | — | — | 24.8% | 19.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.86 | 5.42 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 25.1% | 17.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 62 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 59 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 56 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 99 | 65 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 4.77 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 136 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 152 | 699 | 166 | 129 | 14 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.7% | 18.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 4.63 | 4.51 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 0 | 200 | 922 | 218 | 170 | 18 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.7% | 18.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 4.63 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joseph Menefee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | — | 5.14 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 170 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 88 |
| Dale Stanavich L 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 21.8% | 18.2% | 4.0% | .254 | 5.12 | 24.8% | 13.6% | 23 | -0.62 | 3.14 | 167 | 83 |
| Trey Jeans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 83 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 18.1% | 1.3% | .305 | 5.11 | 19.2% | 3.1% | 103 | +0.98 | 3.29 | 199 | 82 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 26.3% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .288 | 4.80 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 56 | +0.84 | 3.96 | 265 | 82 |
| Erik Rivera L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 82 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 80 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.23 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 52 | +0.02 | 3.14 | 167 | 80 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.63 | 22.7% | 20.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 8.93 | 19.2% | 3.7% | 31 | +3.30 | 3.86 | 189 | 79 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 79 |
| Brian Marconi L 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 20.3% | 18.2% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 101 | 79 |
| Zac Curtis L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.29 | 24.3% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .245 | 7.10 | 22.4% | 6.3% | 30 | +2.81 | 2.61 | 236 | 78 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.06 | 28.9% | 17.5% | 2.1% | .253 | 3.78 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 34 | -0.28 | 2.83 | 271 | 77 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 77 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 19.4% | 15.5% | 2.3% | .289 | 3.65 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.65 | 308 | 77 |
| Jace Fry L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.33 | 29.4% | 17.4% | 90 | -0.98 | 2.51 | 294 | 76 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 76 |
| Adam McCreery L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.23 | 20.7% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 207 | 76 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 76 |
| Rex Brothers L 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.09 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.07 | 3.10 | 205 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 24.7% | 16.6% | 1.16 | 5.11 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |