Joseph Menefee — OGILVIE

Joseph Menefee P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%25.1%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	24	6	1	0	0%	1.1	25.0%	4.2%	20.8%	0.0%	1.69	1.52	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	24	6	1	0	0%	1.1	25.0%	4.2%	20.8%	0.0%	1.69	1.41	—
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	48	223	66	35	3	0%	1.5	21.9%	18.5%	3.4%	1.6%	5.48	4.50	—
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	48	223	66	35	3	0%	1.5	21.9%	18.5%	3.4%	1.6%	5.48	4.50	—
2023	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	48	223	66	35	3	0%	1.5	29.6%	15.7%	13.9%	1.3%	5.48	3.35	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	0	37	159	59	24	1	0%	1.8	28.6%	17.4%	11.2%	0.6%	3.68	3.22	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	0	37	159	59	24	1	0%	1.8	28.6%	17.4%	11.2%	0.6%	3.68	3.22	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	20	0	37	159	59	24	1	0%	1.8	37.1%	15.1%	22.0%	0.6%	3.68	2.20	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	49	218	66	33	7	0%	1.5	23.3%	17.4%	5.9%	3.6%	3.65	5.30	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	49	218	66	33	7	0%	1.5	23.3%	17.4%	5.9%	3.6%	3.65	5.30	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	32	0	49	218	66	33	7	0%	1.5	30.3%	15.1%	15.1%	3.2%	3.65	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	0	13	75	18	19	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	27.9%	-8.4%	3.2%	9.24	6.74	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	0	13	75	18	19	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	27.9%	-8.4%	3.2%	9.24	6.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CIN	12	0	13	75	18	19	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	25.3%	-1.3%	2.7%	9.24	5.75	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CIN	5	0	5	23	6	4	1	0%	1.1	25.1%	18.3%	6.7%	2.9%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	18	98	24	23	3	—	—	24.2%	23.7%	0.5%	2.7%	8.06	6.31	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	56	0	59	247	62	43	7	0%	1.0	24.9%	17.5%	7.4%	3.0%	5.22	5.24	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	54	0	57	240	59	41	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	17.0%	7.6%	3.1%	5.21	5.25	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	21	0	22	93	23	16	3	0%	1.0	24.9%	17.5%	7.4%	3.0%	5.22	5.24	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	32	0	34	144	35	24	4	0%	1.1	24.6%	17.0%	7.6%	3.1%	5.21	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	58	41	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	17.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.21	4.87	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	207	147	25	0%	1.1	24.7%	17.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.21	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		100	0	152	699	166	129	15	0%	1.5	23.7%	18.4%	5.3%	2.1%	4.63	4.60	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	922	218	170	20	0%	1.5	23.7%	18.4%	5.3%	2.1%	4.63	4.60	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Menefee (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	25.1%	18.3%	2.9%	—	5.24	24.8%	7.5%	115	-0.06	—	—	—
Andy Oliver L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	23.4%	16.9%	1.6%	.283	4.56	19.2%	8.6%	108	+0.40	3.93	165	88
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	85
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	83
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SU	4.33	26.3%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.42	3.91	148	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	81
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	81
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	80
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	24.7%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.49	19.7%	4.9%	59	-0.85	3.01	158	79
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	79
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	79
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	78
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	77
Caleb Wurster L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	25.0%	16.1%	2.1%	.241	10.33	13.9%	-5.0%	11	+6.17	3.42	100	77
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	77
Zac Curtis L 2018 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	24.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.245	7.10	22.4%	6.3%	30	+2.84	2.48	236	77
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	76
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	24.9%	17.6%	1.16	5.24
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91