Joseph Menefee

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	A+CIN	32	49	3.65	4.28	30.3%	15.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 17.4% · FIP 5.30
2026	26	AACIN	12	13	9.24	6.81	24.0%	25.3%	—	K 19.4% · BB 27.9% · FIP 6.74
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	1	1	5.73	5.73	23.0%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCIN	15	16	5.64	5.67	22.9%	19.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCIN	18	19	5.64	5.70	22.7%	18.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control25Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBrian Marconi (age 25) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · Trey Jeans (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%23.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%3.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	24	6	1	0	0%	1.1	25.0%	4.2%	20.8%	0.0%	1.69	1.52	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	24	6	1	0	0%	1.1	25.0%	4.2%	20.8%	0.0%	1.69	1.41	—
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	48	223	66	35	3	0%	1.5	21.9%	18.5%	3.4%	1.6%	5.48	4.50	—
2023	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	48	223	66	35	3	0%	1.5	29.6%	15.7%	13.9%	1.3%	5.48	3.35	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	0	37	159	59	24	1	0%	1.8	28.6%	17.4%	11.2%	0.6%	3.68	3.22	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	0	37	159	59	24	1	0%	1.8	28.6%	17.4%	11.2%	0.6%	3.68	3.22	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	20	0	37	159	59	24	1	0%	1.8	37.1%	15.1%	22.0%	0.6%	3.68	2.20	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	49	218	66	33	7	0%	1.5	23.3%	17.4%	5.9%	3.6%	3.65	5.30	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	32	0	49	218	66	33	7	0%	1.5	23.3%	17.4%	5.9%	3.6%	3.65	5.30	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	32	0	49	218	66	33	7	0%	1.5	30.3%	15.1%	15.1%	3.2%	3.65	4.28	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	0	13	75	18	19	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	27.9%	-8.4%	3.2%	9.24	6.74	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	0	13	75	18	19	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	27.9%	-8.4%	3.2%	9.24	6.74	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	12	0	13	75	18	19	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	25.3%	-1.3%	2.7%	9.24	6.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	20.0%	3.0%	3.0%	5.73	5.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	40	0	42	179	41	34	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	19.1%	3.8%	3.1%	5.64	5.67	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	33	0	35	147	33	27	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	18.6%	4.1%	3.3%	5.64	5.70	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	15	0	16	68	15	13	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	19.1%	3.8%	3.1%	5.64	5.67	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	18	0	19	80	18	15	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	18.6%	4.1%	3.3%	5.64	5.70	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	35	149	34	28	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	18.8%	4.0%	3.2%	5.64	5.31	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	159	28	0%	1.1	22.8%	18.8%	4.0%	3.2%	5.64	5.31	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		100	0	152	699	166	129	15	0%	1.5	23.7%	18.4%	5.3%	2.1%	4.63	4.60	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	922	218	170	20	0%	1.5	23.7%	18.4%	5.3%	2.1%	4.63	4.60	-2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 13 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.74 (+1.00)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.810	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.33%	—	×1.100	27.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 49 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.30 (+1.07)K% 30.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.28%	—	×0.770	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.14%	—	×1.150	17.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.124	×1.250	3.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 37 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.22 (+1.00)K% 37.1% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.11%	—	×0.770	28.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×1.150	17.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷1.285	×1.250	0.61%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 48 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.50 (+1.17)K% 29.6% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.60%	—	×0.740	21.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.70%	—	×1.180	18.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.060	×1.300	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joseph Menefee (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.73	23.0%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.68	22.8%	4.0%	77	-0.05	—	—	—
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	81
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	80
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	80
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	80
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	80
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	77
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	76
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	76
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	76
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	76
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	74
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	74
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	73
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	73
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	73
Cody Beckman L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	26	SU	5.27	19.3%	14.9%	3.5%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	189	72
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	72
Alex Torres L 2015 · 5.38 FIP	27	SU	5.38	22.7%	16.2%	3.9%	.227	4.20	18.5%	-0.1%	38	-1.18	2.10	184	72
Matt Mikulski L 2024 · 6.18 FIP	25	SU	6.18	15.3%	17.1%	4.0%	.275	4.98	19.5%	-8.3%	18	-1.20	4.92	223	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	22.9%	19.3%	1.20	5.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*