Rio Britton
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 189 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 48 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 35 | 1 | 68 | 297 | 77 | 34 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 19.2% | 13.5% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 3.97 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 35 | 1 | 68 | 297 | 77 | 34 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 3.97 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 15 | 10 | 60 | 269 | 77 | 37 | 6 | 67% | 4.0 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 4.77 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 108 | 470 | 123 | 57 | 12 | — | — | 26.1% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.04 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 48 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 0 | 135 | 569 | 135 | 52 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 3.85 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 77 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 11 | 128 | 566 | 116 | 83 | 13 | 22% | 2.6 | 20.5% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 3.87 | 4.47 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 17 | 200 | 884 | 182 | 129 | 20 | 22% | 2.6 | 20.5% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 3.87 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rio Britton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.23 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 148 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 83 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 82 |
| Jordan Woods L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 82 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 82 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 80 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 79 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 79 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 79 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 78 |
| Jeffrey Springs L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.13 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .265 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 16.0% | 233 | -0.54 | 1.39 | 861 | 77 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 77 |
| Nick Maronde L 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 77 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .206 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 193 | 77 |
| Connor Oliver L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 76 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 76 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 76 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.98 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .326 | 4.74 | 17.8% | 6.8% | 81 | +0.76 | 3.98 | 153 | 76 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .278 | 5.53 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +1.18 | 4.35 | 128 | 75 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 75 |
| Jordan Fowler L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.98 | 17.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.30 | 13.2% | 5.3% | 70 | -0.68 | 4.30 | 124 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 49 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 1.12 | 4.29 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |