Rio Britton — OGILVIE

Rio Britton P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 189 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%21.1%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	1	68	297	77	34	5	3%	1.9	19.2%	13.5%	5.7%	2.0%	3.97	4.28	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	1	68	297	77	34	5	3%	1.9	19.2%	13.5%	5.7%	2.0%	3.97	4.28	—
2024	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	35	1	68	297	77	34	5	3%	1.9	25.9%	11.4%	14.5%	1.7%	3.97	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	16	98	437	127	58	12	70%	4.2	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	3.4%	4.33	5.03	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	16	98	437	127	58	12	70%	4.2	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	3.4%	4.33	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	23	16	98	437	127	58	12	70%	4.2	29.1%	13.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.33	3.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	93	0	98	414	90	46	12	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.71	4.65	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	94	0	99	419	93	43	12	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	94	0	99	419	94	43	12	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.51	4.47	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	93	0	98	413	92	42	12	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	90	0	95	400	89	41	12	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	86	0	90	382	84	40	12	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	81	0	85	359	78	39	12	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	3.4%	4.80	4.89	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	39	20	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.71	4.65	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	63	0	66	279	62	29	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	75	0	79	334	74	34	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.51	4.47	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	79	0	83	350	78	36	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.2%	12.2%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	80	0	84	355	79	37	11	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	78	0	82	346	76	36	11	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.65	4.72	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	74	0	78	329	71	36	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	3.4%	4.80	4.89	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		491	0	515	2175	480	227	66	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.61	4.24	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	88	26	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.61	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		58	17	166	734	155	107	21	29%	2.9	21.1%	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	4.18	4.73	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	21	200	886	187	129	25	29%	2.9	21.1%	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	4.18	4.73	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rio Britton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.1%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.54	22.1%	11.5%	296	-0.34	—	—	—
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	88
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	82
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	81
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	80
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	80
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	77
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	77
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	77
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	77
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.54	15.7%	4.7%	77	+0.54	4.38	243	77
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	76
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	75
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	75
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	22.0%	10.6%	1.17	4.63
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04