Rio Britton
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.5
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 189 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.7%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 35 | 1 | 68 | 297 | 77 | 34 | 5 | 19.2% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 29 | 8 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 72 | 304 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 69 | 28 | 9 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 71 | 27 | 9 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 71 | 27 | 9 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 71 | 27 | 9 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 69 | 27 | 9 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 68 | 26 | 9 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 1 | 72 | 314 | 65 | 41 | 6 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 3.73 | 4.04 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 3 | 200 | 868 | 180 | 113 | 17 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 3.73 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rio Britton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 211 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 92 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 92 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 91 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 90 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 90 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 89 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 89 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 88 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 88 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 87 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.26 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .265 | 3.49 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 147 | +0.23 | 2.88 | 206 | 87 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 86 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 86 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 85 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 85 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 85 |
| Jakob Hernandez L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.46 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .232 | 3.97 | 27.9% | 18.6% | 102 | +0.51 | 2.99 | 266 | 84 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $7M | $15M | +$8M | ||