Rio Britton

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 189 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AARI	35	1	68	3.97	3.29	25.9%	11.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.28
2026	23	A+ARI	23	16	98	4.33	3.88	29.1%	13.3%	—	K 22.4% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.03
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.14	5.14	22.3%	14.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	28	0	29	4.94	4.87	22.7%	12.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	39	0	41	4.84	4.80	22.8%	12.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Garrett Schoenle (age 24) · Connor Oliver (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%22.3%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	1	68	297	77	34	5	3%	1.9	19.2%	13.5%	5.7%	2.0%	3.97	4.28	—
2024	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	1	68	297	77	34	5	3%	1.9	19.2%	13.5%	5.7%	2.0%	3.97	4.28	—
2024	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	35	1	68	297	77	34	5	3%	1.9	25.9%	11.4%	14.5%	1.7%	3.97	3.29	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	16	98	437	127	58	12	70%	4.2	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	3.4%	4.33	5.03	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	16	98	437	127	58	12	70%	4.2	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	3.4%	4.33	5.03	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	23	16	98	437	127	58	12	70%	4.2	29.1%	13.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.33	3.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	14.6%	7.8%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	65	0	68	288	65	37	9	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.94	4.87	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	58	0	61	258	59	32	8	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.4%	10.5%	3.1%	4.84	4.80	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55	0	58	243	55	30	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.2%	10.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	54	229	52	28	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.2%	4.85	4.88	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	48	0	50	212	47	26	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.95	5.01	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	46	0	48	205	49	24	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.0%	12.1%	3.6%	4.93	4.92	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	28	16	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.94	4.87	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	39	0	41	173	40	21	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.4%	10.5%	3.1%	4.84	4.80	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	42	0	44	186	42	23	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.2%	10.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	44	0	46	194	44	24	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	3.2%	4.85	4.88	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	42	0	44	186	42	23	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.95	5.01	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	42	0	44	186	45	22	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.0%	12.1%	3.6%	4.93	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	0	247	1045	239	129	34	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	104	27	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		58	17	166	734	155	107	21	29%	2.9	21.1%	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	4.18	4.73	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	21	200	886	187	129	25	29%	2.9	21.1%	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	4.18	4.73	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 98 IPFIP 3.83 → 5.03 (+1.19)K% 29.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.06%	—	×0.770	22.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.27%	—	×1.150	15.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 68 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.28 (+1.00)K% 25.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.740	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.180	13.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.102	×1.300	1.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rio Britton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	22.3%	14.6%	3.1%	—	4.83	22.8%	10.3%	187	-0.31	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	91
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	82
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	82
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	80
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	80
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	79
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	79
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	78
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	78
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	77
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	76
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	76
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	75
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	75
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	73
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	73
Jacques Pucheu L 2021 · 4.89 FIP	24	SW	4.89	20.4%	13.5%	3.3%	.209	3.18	21.4%	13.2%	23	-1.71	3.06	134	72
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	71
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	71
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	58	22.8%	12.7%	1.24	4.93
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52