Ubaldo Soto — OGILVIE

Ubaldo Soto P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133123vR 114

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%20.0%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD4045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	1.1%	1.64	4.37	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	0.5%	1.64	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	0.0%	1.29	3.08	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	0.0%	1.29	2.17	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	18.9%	14.0%	5.0%	3.8%	3.91	5.37	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	26.9%	11.4%	15.6%	2.3%	3.91	3.51	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	13	65	289	86	33	9	93%	4.6	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	4.0%	4.71	5.17	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	9	9	46	193	39	25	6	100%	5.1	20.0%	12.8%	7.2%	3.0%	5.04	5.04	-0.3
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	12.8%	7.2%	2.9%	5.01	5.01	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	111	482	125	58	15	—	—	25.8%	12.0%	13.9%	3.1%	4.85	5.12	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	LAA	8	8	48	203	42	24	6	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.86	4.80	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	LAA	9	9	50	213	47	23	6	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.66	4.55	0.0
2029	23	MLB	LAA	9	9	52	221	50	22	6	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.8%	4.49	4.38	+0.1
2030	24	MLB	LAA	9	9	54	227	53	22	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	2.8%	4.36	4.27	+0.2
2031	25	MLB	LAA	9	9	54	230	54	22	6	100%	6.0	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.21	+0.2
2032	26	MLB	LAA	9	9	54	230	55	22	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.8%	4.22	4.19	+0.2
2033	27	MLB	LAA	9	9	54	226	54	21	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.5%	14.2%	2.8%	4.22	4.23	+0.2
2027	21	MLB	LAA	4	4	24	101	21	12	3	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.7%	9.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.77	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	LAA	6	6	37	156	34	17	4	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.52	+0.0
2029	23	MLB	LAA	8	8	44	186	42	19	5	100%	5.5	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.8%	4.46	4.35	+0.1
2030	24	MLB	LAA	8	8	48	203	47	20	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.24	+0.2
2031	25	MLB	LAA	9	9	50	211	50	20	6	100%	5.6	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	2.7%	4.24	4.18	+0.2
2032	26	MLB	LAA	8	8	51	215	51	20	6	100%	6.4	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.19	4.16	+0.2
2033	27	MLB	LAA	8	8	51	215	51	20	6	100%	6.4	23.8%	9.5%	14.2%	2.8%	4.19	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			52	52	304	1284	295	127	35	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.37	3.92	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	194	84	23	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.37	3.92	+3.5
Career	—			55	41	239	1001	189	136	25	75%	4.3	18.8%	13.6%	5.3%	2.5%	3.09	4.62	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			46	34	200	839	158	114	21	75%	4.3	18.8%	13.6%	5.3%	2.5%	3.09	4.62	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ubaldo Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	20.0%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.57	21.7%	11.0%	151	-0.47	—	—	—
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	86
Christian Fernandez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	85
Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.70	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.76	3.25	266	85
Michael Dominguez R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	20	SP	4.08	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.64	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.56	3.82	383	84
Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	84
Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	20	SP-	5.33	18.2%	14.3%	3.5%	.248	5.50	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.17	5.24	347	84
Noah Denoyer R 2029 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	83
Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP-	4.14	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.99	13.7%	3.4%	225	+0.85	3.00	310	83
Christian Roa R 2028 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	83
Kamdyn Perry R 2026 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	18.6%	12.8%	3.7%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	5.18	123	83
Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP-	5.08	21.3%	11.8%	4.2%	.277	4.65	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.43	4.20	301	82
Jared Lyons R 2028 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	20.1%	15.3%	1.9%	.345	3.85	19.6%	10.9%	164	-0.55	3.27	218	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2029 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	82
Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	82
Khristian Curtis R 2028 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	18.8%	14.4%	3.7%	.275	4.58	21.4%	9.3%	183	-0.81	4.52	258	82
Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	81
Sal Biasi R 2027 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.55	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.87	4.68	188	81
Frank German R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	21	SP	5.10	19.5%	12.4%	3.8%	.308	4.77	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.33	3.16	218	81
John Klein R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	17.4%	11.4%	2.8%	.287	4.12	20.0%	10.4%	264	-0.47	3.23	317	81
Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.98	18.8%	7.8%	255	-1.00	2.91	388	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	52	22.5%	10.3%	1.10	4.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86