Ubaldo Soto — OGILVIE

Ubaldo Soto P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%20.0%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD4045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	0.9%	1.64	4.27	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	0.9%	1.64	4.27	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	0.5%	1.64	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	0.0%	1.29	3.08	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	0.0%	1.29	3.08	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	0.0%	1.29	2.17	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	18.9%	14.0%	5.0%	3.4%	3.91	5.15	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	18.9%	14.0%	5.0%	3.4%	3.91	5.15	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	26.9%	11.4%	15.6%	2.3%	3.91	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	95	432	118	46	12	95%	4.3	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.70	4.97	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	95	432	118	46	12	95%	4.3	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.70	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	LAA	22	21	95	432	118	46	12	95%	4.3	27.3%	10.6%	16.7%	2.8%	5.70	3.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	97	411	85	50	12	100%	5.4	20.6%	12.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.94	4.87	+0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	102	432	93	48	12	100%	5.4	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.72	4.60	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	106	448	100	46	12	100%	5.3	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	2.8%	4.53	4.42	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	109	459	105	45	13	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.31	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	110	464	108	44	13	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.7%	4.30	4.24	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	110	464	109	44	13	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.5%	13.9%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	108	457	107	44	13	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.8%	4.25	4.25	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	105	444	103	43	13	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.8%	13.6%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	100	424	98	42	13	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	94	399	91	41	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	88	372	83	40	13	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	81	344	75	38	13	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.0%	10.8%	3.7%	4.94	5.07	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	48	203	42	25	6	100%	5.3	20.6%	12.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.97	4.90	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	74	312	68	34	9	100%	5.3	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.63	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	89	376	84	39	11	100%	5.2	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	2.8%	4.56	4.45	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	97	410	94	40	12	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.42	4.34	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	101	426	99	41	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.33	4.27	+0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	103	435	102	41	12	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.5%	13.9%	2.8%	4.28	4.25	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	103	435	102	42	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.9%	4.28	4.28	+0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	100	422	98	41	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.37	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	95	401	93	40	12	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.50	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	90	380	86	39	13	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	3.3%	4.59	4.69	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	84	355	79	38	13	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	3.5%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	77	325	71	36	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.0%	10.8%	3.8%	4.98	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	183	1061	4479	1018	456	136	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.14	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	192	86	26	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		63	49	268	1144	212	151	28	78%	4.3	18.5%	13.2%	5.3%	2.4%	3.62	4.54	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	37	200	853	158	113	21	78%	4.3	18.5%	13.2%	5.3%	2.4%	3.62	4.54	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ubaldo Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	20.0%	13.8%	2.9%	—	4.62	21.5%	10.4%	306	-0.52	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	87
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	86
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	85
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	84
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	84
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	83
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	83
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	82
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	81
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	97	22.5%	10.4%	1.15	4.53
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32