Ubaldo Soto — OGILVIE

Ubaldo Soto P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

+0.3 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2031

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.3%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.9%

IP65

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2031

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	15.6%	15.7%	1.0%	1.64	4.31	+0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	17.2%	11.3%	0.0%	1.29	3.08	+1.2
2025	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	18.9%	14.0%	3.7%	3.91	5.32	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	2	2	7	39	10	4	2	—	—	—	13.50	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	LAA	12	12	65	276	61	29	8	22.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.3
2026 Total	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	73	315	71	33	10	22.7%	10.4%	3.2%	5.43	4.07	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	LAA	12	12	69	290	66	28	8	22.8%	9.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.38	+0.5
2028	22	MLB	LAA	13	13	72	304	72	28	9	23.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.19	+0.7
2029	23	MLB	LAA	14	14	75	316	77	27	9	24.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.15	4.06	+0.9
2030	24	MLB	LAA	14	14	77	324	81	27	9	25.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.04	3.97	+1.0
2031	25	MLB	LAA	14	14	78	328	83	27	9	25.3%	8.3%	2.8%	3.96	3.91	+1.1
2032	26	MLB	LAA	14	14	78	328	84	27	9	25.5%	8.3%	2.8%	3.92	3.89	+1.1
2033	27	MLB	LAA	14	14	77	326	83	27	9	25.6%	8.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.90	+1.0
2034	28	MLB	LAA	14	14	76	320	82	27	9	25.5%	8.3%	2.8%	3.92	3.93	+1.0
2035	29	MLB	LAA	13	13	74	313	80	26	9	25.4%	8.4%	2.9%	3.95	3.97	+0.9
2036	30	MLB	LAA	13	13	72	304	77	26	9	25.2%	8.5%	2.9%	4.00	4.03	+0.8
2037	31	MLB	LAA	13	13	70	293	73	25	9	24.9%	8.6%	3.0%	4.06	4.11	+0.7
2038	32	MLB	LAA	12	12	67	282	69	25	9	24.7%	8.8%	3.1%	4.14	4.19	+0.6
2039	33	MLB	LAA	12	12	64	269	66	24	8	24.4%	9.0%	3.2%	4.23	4.29	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			43	30	181	751	135	101	15	18.0%	13.4%	2.0%	2.93	4.40	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			48	33	200	830	149	112	17	18.0%	13.4%	2.0%	2.93	4.40	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ubaldo Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.3%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.21	23.7%	14.5%	216	-0.32	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	90
Yimmi Brasoban R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	90
David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	89
Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	89
Aaron Holiday R 2028 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	88
William Kempner R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	88
José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	88
Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	20	SW	3.98	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.57	20.0%	7.3%	191	+0.59	3.98	319	88
Curtis Taylor R 2028 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	87
Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	20	SW	4.45	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.76	3.25	266	86
Mike Vasil R 2028 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.65	19.1%	9.4%	359	+1.01	3.64	429	86
Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	86
Frank German R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	86
Michael Knorr R 2029 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	23.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.312	5.10	22.3%	9.9%	93	+0.87	4.23	152	86
Noah Denoyer R 2029 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	85
Alessandro Ercolani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	20	SW	3.89	22.9%	9.2%	2.8%	.267	5.28	12.7%	2.8%	100	+1.39	3.82	291	85
Jake Lyons R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	85
Alex Cook R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	22	SW	4.03	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.34	21.0%	12.9%	53	-0.69	2.94	119	85
Craig Missigman R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$45M	+$38M