Ubaldo Soto

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#519ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKLAA	12	12	56	1.29	2.17	25.3%	9.0%	—	K 17.2% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.08
2025	19	MIX2 levels	18	10	74	3.91	3.51	26.9%	11.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.15
2026	20	ALAA	22	21	95	5.70	3.71	27.3%	10.6%	—	K 20.2% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.14	5.14	20.5%	13.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAA	7	7	36	4.93	4.84	21.5%	11.7%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBLAA	10	10	53	4.73	4.62	22.3%	10.7%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.1, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 81%

CompsBryce Conley (age 23) · Juan Nuñez (age 21) · Christian Roa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%20.5%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
Totals		$9M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	0.9%	1.64	4.27	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	11	6	44	183	42	23	1	55%	4.0	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	0.5%	1.64	3.05	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	0.0%	1.29	3.08	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	0.0%	1.29	3.08	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	12	12	56	221	56	20	0	100%	4.7	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	0.0%	1.29	2.17	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	18.9%	14.0%	5.0%	3.4%	3.91	5.15	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	18.9%	14.0%	5.0%	3.4%	3.91	5.15	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	74	308	83	35	7	56%	4.1	26.9%	11.4%	15.6%	2.3%	3.91	3.51	—
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	95	432	118	46	12	95%	4.3	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.70	4.97	—
2026	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	95	432	118	46	12	95%	4.3	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.70	4.97	—
2026	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	22	21	95	432	118	46	12	95%	4.3	27.3%	10.6%	16.7%	2.8%	5.70	3.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	13.3%	7.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	73	307	66	36	9	100%	5.2	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.90	4.81	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	73	307	68	33	9	100%	5.2	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.59	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	73	307	70	31	9	100%	5.6	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.45	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	67	285	66	28	8	100%	5.6	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	68	285	67	28	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	66	279	65	27	8	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	63	266	62	26	8	100%	6.3	23.2%	10.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.44	4.47	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	246	57	25	8	100%	5.8	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.61	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	53	223	50	23	8	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.78	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	51	216	52	22	8	100%	5.7	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.7%	4.70	4.71	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	45	189	45	20	7	100%	6.4	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	3.9%	4.84	4.94	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	36	152	33	18	5	100%	5.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.93	4.84	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	53	224	50	24	7	100%	5.3	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.0%	4.73	4.62	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	60	253	58	26	8	100%	5.5	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.48	+0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	60	253	59	25	8	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	61	25	8	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.38	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	61	258	60	25	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.1%	4.42	4.42	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	58	25	8	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.0%	13.3%	3.2%	4.47	4.50	+0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	55	232	53	24	8	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.3%	4.58	4.65	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	50	211	48	22	7	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.82	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	49	207	50	21	8	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.7%	4.74	4.75	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	42	177	42	18	7	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	4.0%	4.88	4.98	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	587	2478	572	253	80	100%	5.8	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.22	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	86	27	100%	5.8	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	3.2%	4.61	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		63	49	268	1144	212	151	28	78%	4.3	18.5%	13.2%	5.3%	2.4%	3.62	4.54	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	37	200	853	158	113	21	78%	4.3	18.5%	13.2%	5.3%	2.4%	3.62	4.54	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 95 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.97 (+1.30)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.31%	—	×0.740	20.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×1.180	12.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 49 IPFIP 3.71 → 5.52 (+1.81)K% 24.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.88%	—	×0.680	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.250	14.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷0.873	×1.400	3.76%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 25 IPFIP 3.06 → 4.31 (+1.25)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.740	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.58%	—	×1.180	13.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.036	×1.300	2.64%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Angels · 56 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.08 (+0.97)K% 25.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.34%	—	×0.680	17.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.05%	—	×1.250	11.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.068	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Angels · 44 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.27 (+1.21)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.95%	—	×0.680	15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.57%	—	×1.250	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷0.852	×1.400	0.90%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ubaldo Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.62	22.2%	11.4%	218	-0.52	—	—	—
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	88
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	87
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	87
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	87
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	85
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	85
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	83
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	63	22.8%	10.5%	1.22	4.64
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*