Nathan Hall

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1252ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	13	13	23	3.97	3.01	21.9%	9.4%	—	K 16.6% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	—	—	0	5.05	5.05	21.1%	13.6%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBNYM	5	5	29	4.85	4.77	22.2%	12.2%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBNYM	9	9	51	4.69	4.60	22.9%	11.4%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 6.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsLogan Boyer (age 23) · Levi Wells (age 22) · Jared Ruxer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%21.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	23	96	21	9	1	100%	1.7	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	1.9%	3.97	4.55	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	23	96	21	9	1	100%	1.7	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	1.9%	3.97	4.55	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	23	96	21	9	1	100%	1.7	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	1.0%	3.97	3.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	13.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.05	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	95	400	89	49	12	100%	5.6	22.2%	12.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.85	4.77	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	99	418	96	48	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.60	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	105	442	102	50	13	100%	6.2	23.2%	11.2%	11.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.55	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	101	428	99	48	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.58	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	96	407	94	46	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.3%	11.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	90	378	86	44	12	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.2%	4.73	4.80	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	81	344	77	41	12	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.4%	4.88	4.98	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	73	308	68	38	11	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.7%	5.06	5.18	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	29	122	27	15	4	100%	5.8	22.2%	12.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.85	4.77	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	51	215	49	25	6	100%	5.7	22.9%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.60	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	68	287	66	32	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	11.2%	11.9%	2.9%	4.60	4.55	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	72	35	9	100%	6.2	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.59	4.58	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	76	321	74	36	10	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.3%	11.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	71	36	10	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.2%	4.73	4.80	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	70	296	66	35	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.4%	4.88	4.98	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	64	270	59	33	10	100%	5.8	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.6%	5.05	5.17	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	506	2135	485	247	67	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.38	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	192	98	26	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		13	13	23	96	16	14	2	100%	1.7	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	1.9%	3.97	4.55	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	115	200	847	140	119	16	100%	1.7	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	1.9%	3.97	4.55	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 15 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.55 (+1.01)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.39%	—	×0.740	16.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.180	14.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Mets · 8 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.46 (+0.67)K% 20.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.680	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.250	4.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Hall (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.64	22.8%	11.1%	298	-0.41	—	—	—
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	76
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	75
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	71
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	70
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	69
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	69
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	23.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	3.95	19.2%	8.3%	243	-0.42	3.69	538	68
Braden Nett R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	20.3%	15.2%	1.5%	.287	4.60	19.8%	5.7%	142	+0.45	3.91	243	68
Leonardo Pestana R 2023 · 5.67 FIP	25	SP	5.67	21.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.324	5.30	22.3%	8.6%	66	-0.37	3.61	155	67
Sam Whiting R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.320	4.88	17.1%	3.5%	105	+0.76	4.12	177	67
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	65
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	63
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.96	23.4%	11.8%	227	-0.45	3.25	464	63
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	63
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	63
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	62
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	62
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	62
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	62
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	92	22.5%	11.8%	1.20	4.77
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*