Braden Nett — OGILVIE

Braden Nett P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	3	0	3	15	5	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.97	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	3	0	3	15	5	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	40	184	45	37	0	79%	2.9	17.1%	24.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	4.46	4.79	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	40	184	45	37	0	79%	2.9	17.1%	24.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	4.46	4.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	40	184	45	37	0	79%	2.9	24.5%	20.1%	4.3%	0.0%	4.46	3.62	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	65	286	73	40	4	95%	3.2	20.3%	15.2%	5.2%	1.5%	3.88	4.15	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	65	286	73	40	4	95%	3.2	20.3%	15.2%	5.2%	1.5%	3.88	4.15	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	65	286	73	40	4	95%	3.2	25.5%	14.0%	11.5%	1.4%	3.88	3.50	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	24	106	468	116	48	8	100%	4.4	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.0%	3.75	3.91	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	24	106	468	116	48	8	100%	4.4	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.0%	3.75	3.91	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	24	24	106	468	116	48	8	100%	4.4	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	1.7%	3.75	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	17	15	42	217	51	47	8	88%	2.5	18.7%	22.2%	-3.5%	4.1%	7.99	6.60	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	17	15	42	217	51	47	8	88%	2.5	18.7%	22.2%	-3.5%	4.1%	7.99	6.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	OAK	2	2	5	19	6	0	1	100%	2.5	31.6%	0.0%	31.6%	5.3%	1.80	3.32	—
2026	24	AA RAW	OAK	5	5	15	71	18	8	5	100%	2.9	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	7.0%	9.20	6.25	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	OAK	10	8	22	127	27	39	2	80%	2.2	21.3%	30.7%	-9.4%	1.6%	8.59	6.06	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	OAK	2	2	11	45	10	6	1	100%	5.3	21.4%	13.2%	8.1%	2.5%	4.74	4.74	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	OAK	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.4%	13.2%	8.1%	2.5%	4.71	4.71	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	52	262	61	53	9	—	—	23.1%	20.2%	2.9%	3.5%	7.33	6.23	-0.9
FULL	24	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	1	4	1	1	0	—	—	21.4%	13.2%	8.1%	2.5%	4.71	4.32	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	127	537	119	64	14	100%	5.8	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	2.6%	4.59	4.53	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	127	537	121	62	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	2.6%	4.51	4.47	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	125	529	119	61	14	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	2.7%	4.50	4.50	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	122	513	114	59	14	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.58	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	116	490	108	58	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	11.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.64	4.71	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	109	461	100	56	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.1%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	102	429	91	53	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	12.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	61	258	57	31	6	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	2.5%	4.55	4.49	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	83	43	9	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	2.5%	4.47	4.43	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	94	48	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	2.6%	4.46	4.46	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	104	439	98	51	12	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.7%	4.50	4.54	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	102	431	95	51	12	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.60	4.67	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	91	50	13	100%	6.2	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.75	4.85	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	93	393	84	49	13	100%	5.8	21.3%	12.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.92	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	648	2736	603	323	76	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.61	4.27	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	186	100	23	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.61	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		78	69	256	1170	229	192	23	88%	3.3	19.6%	16.4%	3.2%	1.9%	4.58	4.58	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	54	200	915	179	150	18	88%	3.3	19.6%	16.4%	3.2%	1.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Nett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.4%	13.2%	2.5%	—	4.50	22.3%	10.7%	380	-0.24	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	81
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	80
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	79
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	79
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	78
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	77
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	77
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	77
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	77
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	76
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	76
Pedro Payano R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	20.1%	13.5%	3.1%	.291	4.59	19.2%	5.3%	185	-0.23	2.54	707	76
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	75
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	75
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	118	22.0%	12.0%	1.08	4.65
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67