Braden Nett

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	19	65	3.88	3.50	25.5%	14.0%	—	K 20.3% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.15
2025	23	AAOAK	24	24	106	3.75	3.25	24.8%	10.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.91
2026	24	MIX3 levels	17	15	42	7.99	6.53	23.5%	21.7%	—	K 19.1% · BB 22.2% · FIP 6.57
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	6	6	38	5.38	5.38	20.7%	16.3%	0.0
2028PROJ59% MLB	26	MLBOAK	10	10	57	5.24	5.22	21.4%	15.4%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	27	MLBOAK	10	10	62	5.18	5.18	21.4%	14.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · J.P. France (age 24) · David Lebron (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%20.7%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	3	0	3	15	5	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.97	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	3	0	3	15	5	2	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	40	184	45	37	0	79%	2.9	17.1%	24.7%	-7.6%	0.0%	4.46	4.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	40	184	45	37	0	79%	2.9	24.5%	20.1%	4.3%	0.0%	4.46	3.62	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	65	286	73	40	4	95%	3.2	20.3%	15.2%	5.2%	1.5%	3.88	4.15	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	65	286	73	40	4	95%	3.2	20.3%	15.2%	5.2%	1.5%	3.88	4.15	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	65	286	73	40	4	95%	3.2	25.5%	14.0%	11.5%	1.4%	3.88	3.50	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	24	106	468	116	48	8	100%	4.4	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.0%	3.75	3.91	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	24	24	106	468	116	48	8	100%	4.4	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.0%	3.75	3.91	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	24	24	106	468	116	48	8	100%	4.4	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	1.7%	3.75	3.25	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	15	42	217	51	47	8	88%	2.5	19.1%	22.2%	-3.1%	4.1%	7.99	6.57	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	15	42	217	51	47	8	88%	2.5	19.1%	22.2%	-3.1%	4.1%	7.99	6.57	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	15	42	217	51	47	8	88%	2.5	23.5%	21.7%	1.8%	3.7%	7.99	6.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	6	6	38	160	33	26	5	100%	6.3	20.7%	16.3%	4.4%	2.9%	5.38	5.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	97	408	87	63	12	100%	6.0	21.4%	15.4%	5.9%	2.9%	5.24	5.22	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	85	358	77	53	11	100%	6.1	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	78	330	70	49	10	100%	6.0	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.1%	5.19	5.22	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	72	304	64	45	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	14.8%	6.3%	3.2%	5.27	5.33	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	65	276	57	42	9	100%	5.9	20.7%	15.1%	5.7%	3.4%	5.41	5.51	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	57	241	51	37	7	100%	5.7	21.4%	15.4%	5.9%	2.9%	5.24	5.22	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	62	262	56	39	8	100%	6.2	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	64	270	58	40	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	14.7%	6.6%	3.1%	5.19	5.22	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	62	262	55	39	8	100%	6.2	21.1%	14.8%	6.3%	3.2%	5.27	5.33	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	58	245	51	37	8	100%	5.8	20.7%	15.1%	5.7%	3.4%	5.41	5.51	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	302	1277	271	191	40	100%	6.0	21.2%	15.0%	6.2%	3.1%	5.26	4.91	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	126	26	100%	6.0	21.2%	15.0%	6.2%	3.1%	5.26	4.91	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		78	69	256	1170	230	192	23	88%	3.3	19.7%	16.4%	3.3%	1.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	54	200	915	180	150	18	88%	3.3	19.7%	16.4%	3.3%	1.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 22 IPFIP 6.06 → 6.01 (−0.05)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.26%	—	×0.860	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	30.71%	—	×0.900	27.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.06 → 6.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 15 IPFIP 6.25 → 7.57 (+1.32)K% 25.4% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.35%	—	×0.810	20.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.100	12.39%
HR / BF /BF	7.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	8.45%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.25 → 7.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 106 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.91 (+0.67)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.810	20.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.100	11.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.043	×1.200	1.97%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 60 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.15 (+0.99)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.770	20.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×1.150	15.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.13%	÷0.916	×1.250	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 5 IPFIP 7.52 → 8.73 (+1.21)K% 14.3% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.810	11.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.81%	—	×1.100	26.19%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.953	×1.200	6.00%

Result: FIP 7.52 → 8.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Padres · 27 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.85 (+1.37)K% 26.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.45%	—	×0.680	17.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.66%	—	×1.250	25.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.912	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 13 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.66 (+0.89)K% 20.6% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.740	15.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.180	22.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.121	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braden Nett (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.21	21.4%	6.3%	260	-0.17	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	76
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	75
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	75
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	74
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	74
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	73
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	73
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	73
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	73
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	73
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	73
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	72
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	71
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	87	21.1%	15.3%	1.17	5.28
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*