Lyon Richardson — OGILVIE

Lyon Richardson P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP4.98

K%18.9%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

FB+5.4 (50%)

SI (29%)

CU (10%)

CH-6.4 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	11	11	29	139	24	16	3	100%	2.6	11.7%	14.4%	-2.6%	3.0%	7.14	5.59	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	11	11	29	139	24	16	3	100%	2.6	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	2.2%	7.14	4.44	—
2019	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	26	113	497	106	33	10	100%	4.3	15.8%	7.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.15	4.27	—
2019	19	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	26	26	113	497	106	33	10	100%	4.3	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.0%	4.15	3.25	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	19	18	76	346	91	38	9	95%	4.0	20.3%	12.6%	7.6%	3.4%	5.09	4.85	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	19	18	76	346	91	38	9	95%	4.0	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	2.6%	5.09	3.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	86	371	112	53	8	100%	3.1	23.3%	15.6%	7.8%	2.3%	4.50	4.39	+0.5
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	86	371	112	53	8	100%	3.1	23.3%	15.6%	7.8%	2.3%	4.50	4.39	+0.5
2023	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	28	86	371	112	53	8	100%	3.1	30.2%	14.3%	15.9%	2.2%	4.50	3.55	+1.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	73%	3.8	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	1.8%	4.82	4.13	+0.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	73%	3.8	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	1.8%	4.82	4.13	+0.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	73%	3.8	21.1%	13.5%	7.6%	2.0%	4.82	4.20	+0.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	0%	1.2	18.4%	9.3%	9.0%	1.8%	4.39	3.71	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	0%	1.2	18.4%	9.3%	9.0%	1.8%	4.39	3.71	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	1.6%	4.39	3.54	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	5	58	274	47	36	11	12%	1.4	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.0%	6.48	5.79	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	41	5	75	322	79	41	9	12%	1.8	20.3%	11.2%	9.2%	2.5%	4.78	4.18	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	41	5	75	322	79	41	9	12%	1.8	20.3%	11.2%	9.2%	2.5%	4.78	4.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIL	38	4	72	306	75	38	7	11%	1.9	24.5%	12.4%	12.1%	2.3%	4.38	3.86	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	MIL	3	1	3	16	4	3	2	33%	1.1	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	13.50	10.22	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIL	3	1	3	16	4	3	2	33%	1.1	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	13.50	10.22	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	2.6%	5.03	4.98	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	2.6%	5.03	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	81	347	84	44	10	—	—	24.1%	12.8%	11.4%	2.8%	4.80	4.24	+0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	9	39	84	44	10	—	—	215.8%	114.1%	101.7%	24.9%	42.41	12.98	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	87	0	92	388	74	49	11	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.7%	4.95	4.94	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	87	0	92	388	75	48	11	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.4%	6.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.98	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIL	84	0	88	370	70	46	11	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.4%	6.5%	3.0%	5.03	5.10	-0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIL	78	0	82	348	63	44	11	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.6%	5.7%	3.2%	5.18	5.29	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	83	0	87	367	71	46	10	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.7%	4.95	4.94	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	83	0	87	367	71	46	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.4%	6.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.98	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIL	79	0	83	350	66	43	10	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.4%	6.5%	3.0%	5.03	5.10	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIL	74	0	78	329	60	41	11	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.6%	5.7%	3.2%	5.18	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	5	400	1717	320	216	53	1%	1.1	18.6%	12.6%	6.0%	3.1%	5.24	4.82	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	2	200	858	160	108	26	1%	1.1	18.6%	12.6%	6.0%	3.1%	5.24	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		207	107	548	2429	452	279	60	52%	2.6	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	2.5%	4.73	4.34	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	39	200	887	165	102	22	52%	2.6	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	2.5%	4.73	4.34	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lyon Richardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	18.9%	13.1%	2.6%	—	5.01	19.1%	6.7%	271	+0.03	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	79
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	75
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	74
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	74
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	74
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	74
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.11	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.05	3.84	249	74
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	73
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	73
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	73
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	73
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	73
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	73
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	73
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	85	18.9%	12.6%	1.11	5.02
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25