Lyon Richardson — OGILVIE

Lyon Richardson P Louisville Bats

+0.2 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

ERA5.03

FIP4.48

xFIP4.60

SIERA4.59

K%19.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.6%

IP79

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5050

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

FB+5.4 (50%)

SI (29%)

CU (10%)

CH-6.4 (41%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	Greeneville Reds	11	11	29	139	24	16	3	11.7%	14.4%	3.0%	7.14	5.59	-0.2
2019	19	A	Dayton Dragons	26	26	113	497	106	33	10	15.8%	7.8%	2.8%	4.15	4.28	+1.3
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	19	18	76	346	91	38	9	20.3%	12.6%	3.4%	5.09	4.84	+0.2
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	28	28	86	371	112	53	8	23.7%	16.3%	2.2%	4.50	4.39	+0.8
2024	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	18.6%	14.0%	1.8%	4.82	4.28	+1.1
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	18.9%	10.0%	1.8%	4.39	3.75	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	6	0	11	40	10	2	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	CIN	14	14	79	334	69	45	9	20.8%	13.5%	2.6%	5.47	4.88	+0.2
2026 Total	26	MLB	CIN	—	—	90	374	79	47	9	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	4.78	4.27	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	CIN	14	14	78	331	70	43	9	21.1%	13.1%	2.7%	5.07	4.84	+0.2
2028	28	MLB	CIN	14	14	77	326	69	42	9	21.2%	12.9%	2.7%	4.91	4.82	+0.2
2029	29	MLB	CIN	14	14	76	319	66	41	9	20.8%	12.8%	2.8%	4.88	4.87	+0.2
2030	30	MLB	CIN	13	13	73	309	63	39	9	20.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	+0.1
2031	31	MLB	CIN	13	13	71	298	59	38	9	19.8%	12.9%	2.9%	5.00	5.06	-0.0
2032	32	MLB	CIN	12	12	68	286	55	37	9	19.1%	13.1%	3.0%	5.10	5.17	-0.1
2033	33	MLB	CIN	12	12	65	273	50	36	8	18.5%	13.2%	3.1%	5.22	5.30	-0.2
2034	34	MLB	CIN	11	11	62	260	46	35	8	17.8%	13.4%	3.2%	5.35	5.44	-0.3
2035	35	MLB	CIN	58	—	58	245	42	33	8	17.0%	13.7%	3.3%	5.49	5.59	-0.4
2036	36	MLB	CIN	54	—	54	229	37	32	8	16.3%	13.9%	3.4%	5.65	5.75	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			172	102	484	2147	404	258	51	18.8%	12.0%	2.4%	4.61	4.35	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			71	42	200	888	167	107	21	18.8%	12.0%	2.4%	4.61	4.35	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lyon Richardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.8%	13.5%	2.6%	—	4.84	21.0%	8.1%	231	-0.04	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.46	15.2%	3.1%	156	+1.00	4.46	215	85
Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	20.7%	14.0%	2.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	27	SW	4.26	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.69	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.57	2.69	125	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	84
Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	10.8%	1.7%	.269	3.87	23.3%	7.2%	89	+0.01	3.14	197	83
Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	26	SW	3.85	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.07	3.23	161	83
José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.26	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.24	4.02	328	83
Nick Ernst R 2025 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	117	83
Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	83
Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.45	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.53	3.42	365	83
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	26	SW	4.22	23.4%	11.6%	3.0%	.273	4.53	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.31	3.70	187	83
Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	27	SW	4.29	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.296	3.94	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.35	3.68	146	82
Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	82
Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.76 FIP	25	SW	4.76	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	106	82
Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	26	SW	3.76	23.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	117	82
Eduard Santos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	82
Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	26	SW	3.89	22.8%	12.7%	2.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	176	82
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	26	SW	4.26	23.4%	14.2%	2.4%	.282	4.71	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.45	2.59	233	82
Nefi Ogando R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	26	SW	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.12	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.25	3.87	103	82
Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.7%	11.4%	2.3%	.292	4.93	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.96	3.84	299	81

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.