Lyon Richardson
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 114
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
K%19.4%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%5.3%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p1717.4%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
FB+5.4 (50%)
SI (29%)
CU (10%)
CH-6.4 (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 11 | 29 | 139 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 2.6 | 11.7% | 14.4% | -2.6% | 3.0% | 7.14 | 5.59 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 11 | 11 | 29 | 139 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 2.6 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 7.14 | 4.44 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 26 | 113 | 497 | 106 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.35 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 26 | 113 | 497 | 106 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 4.15 | 3.25 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 19 | 18 | 76 | 346 | 91 | 38 | 9 | 95% | 4.0 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 4.93 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 19 | 18 | 76 | 346 | 91 | 38 | 9 | 95% | 4.0 | 26.3% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 5.09 | 3.74 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 28 | 86 | 371 | 112 | 53 | 8 | 100% | 3.1 | 23.7% | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 28 | 86 | 371 | 112 | 53 | 8 | 100% | 3.1 | 30.2% | 14.3% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 3.55 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 99 | 446 | 94 | 60 | 9 | 73% | 3.8 | 18.6% | 14.0% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 4.82 | 4.21 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 99 | 446 | 94 | 60 | 9 | 73% | 3.8 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 4.82 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 70 | 308 | 62 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 4.39 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 70 | 308 | 62 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 4.39 | 3.54 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 46 | 5 | 81 | 351 | 84 | 44 | 10 | 11% | 1.8 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 68 | 0 | 72 | 303 | 59 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 59 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 152 | 654 | 143 | 87 | 18 | — | — | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 74 | 310 | 143 | 87 | 18 | — | — | 46.0% | 27.9% | 18.1% | 5.8% | 10.60 | 5.94 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 69 | 0 | 72 | 306 | 60 | 42 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.02 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.02 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 56 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 238 | 5 | 264 | 1143 | 218 | 155 | 35 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 13.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 4.89 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 4 | 200 | 866 | 165 | 117 | 27 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 13.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 212 | 107 | 553 | 2458 | 467 | 302 | 62 | 50% | 2.6 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.43 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 39 | 200 | 889 | 169 | 109 | 22 | 50% | 2.6 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lyon Richardson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | — | 5.05 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 143 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 82 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 77 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 75 |
| Frankie Scalzo Jr. R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.17 | 17.2% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 237 | 75 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 75 |
| Sean Isaac R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 75 |
| Logan Taylor R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 74 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 73 |
| Joe Record R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 16.6% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .236 | 3.71 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 172 | -1.03 | 2.59 | 280 | 73 |
| Andrew Bash R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .249 | 4.41 | 17.7% | 5.9% | 249 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 500 | 73 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 73 |
| Adam Quintana R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 73 |
| Ben Gross R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.87 | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 118 | 72 |
| Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 72 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 72 |
| Nick Green R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 1.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 416 | 72 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2025 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 72 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 71 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 72 | 19.7% | 13.7% | 1.06 | 5.04 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |