Lyon Richardson

P Nashville Sounds

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	26	19	99	4.82	4.20	21.1%	13.5%	1.4	K 18.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.08
2025	25	MIX2 levels	56	0	70	4.39	3.54	20.1%	9.7%	0.8	K 18.7% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.69
2026	26	MIX2 levels	43	5	78	4.83	4.08	24.6%	12.5%	0.4	K 21.2% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIL	48	0	50	4.88	4.92	20.2%	12.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ85% MLB	28	MLBMIL	28	0	29	4.90	4.95	20.4%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ88% MLB	29	MLBMIL	17	0	18	4.98	5.06	20.0%	12.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo67

xwOBA vs22

K%17

CompsTyler Yates (age 26) · Shawn Dubin (age 27) · Grant Black (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.88

FIP4.92

K%20.2%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Reds	11	11	29	139	24	16	3	100%	2.6	11.7%	14.4%	-2.6%	3.0%	7.14	5.59	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Greeneville Reds	11	11	29	139	24	16	3	100%	2.6	17.3%	11.5%	5.8%	2.2%	7.14	4.44	—
2019	19	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	26	113	497	106	33	10	100%	4.3	15.8%	7.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.15	4.27	—
2019	19	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	26	26	113	497	106	33	10	100%	4.3	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.0%	4.15	3.25	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	19	18	76	346	91	38	9	95%	4.0	20.3%	12.6%	7.6%	3.4%	5.09	4.85	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	19	18	76	346	91	38	9	95%	4.0	26.3%	11.0%	15.3%	2.6%	5.09	3.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	86	371	112	53	8	100%	3.1	23.6%	15.6%	8.0%	2.3%	4.50	4.37	+1.0
2023	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	28	86	371	112	53	8	100%	3.1	30.2%	14.3%	15.9%	2.2%	4.50	3.55	+1.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	73%	3.8	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	1.8%	4.82	4.08	+1.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	73%	3.8	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	1.8%	4.82	4.08	+1.5
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	99	446	94	60	9	73%	3.8	21.1%	13.5%	7.6%	2.0%	4.82	4.20	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	1.8%	4.39	3.69	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.3%	9.4%	1.8%	4.39	3.69	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	70	308	62	30	5	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	1.6%	4.39	3.54	+0.8
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	78	337	83	42	9	12%	1.8	21.2%	10.9%	10.2%	2.4%	4.83	4.01	+0.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	78	337	83	42	9	12%	1.8	21.2%	10.9%	10.2%	2.4%	4.83	4.01	+0.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	78	337	83	42	9	12%	1.8	24.6%	12.5%	12.2%	2.7%	4.83	4.08	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	5	58	274	47	36	11	12%	1.4	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	4.0%	6.48	5.79	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIL	48	0	50	211	43	27	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	32	0	34	141	29	18	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.6%	7.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.95	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIL	20	0	20	87	17	11	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.06	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	28	0	29	122	25	15	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.6%	7.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.95	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIL	17	0	18	76	15	10	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	3.1%	4.98	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	5	105	471	87	61	17	6%	1.2	18.4%	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	5.79	5.14	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		165	10	200	897	166	116	32	6%	1.2	18.4%	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	5.79	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		209	107	551	2444	462	280	60	51%	2.6	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	2.5%	4.74	4.30	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	39	200	888	168	102	22	51%	2.6	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	2.5%	4.74	4.30	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 75 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.01 (+0.26)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.61%	—	×0.860	21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.15%	—	×0.900	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 32 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.96 (+0.42)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.860	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.56%	—	×0.900	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.69%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 98 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.08 (+0.07)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.09%	—	×0.860	18.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.38%	—	×0.900	12.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷1.111	×1.100	1.80%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 46 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.31 (+0.75)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.85%	—	×0.810	24.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.70%	—	×1.100	12.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.017	×1.200	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 14 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.05 (+0.14)K% 34.8% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.78%	—	×0.860	29.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.74%	—	×0.900	19.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.054	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 9 IPFIP -1.12 → 0.14 (+1.27)K% 54.5% → 40.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.55%	—	×0.740	40.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.180	3.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.060	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP -1.12 → 0.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 76 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.85 (+1.15)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.30%	—	×0.770	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.150	12.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.960	×1.250	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ADayton Dragons · 113 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.27 (+1.03)K% 21.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.33%	—	×0.740	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.64%	—	×1.180	7.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷0.950	×1.300	2.75%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lyon Richardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	20.2%	12.8%	2.8%	—	4.99	20.2%	7.6%	54	+0.07	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	74
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	71
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	71
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	69
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	69
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	69
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	67
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	67
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	67
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	67
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	66
Joel Seddon R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	27	SW	4.87	18.0%	10.8%	3.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	474	66
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	66
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	66
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	66
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	66
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	65
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	65
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	44	19.1%	13.4%	1.26	5.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*