Sheng-En Lin

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#762ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	15	12	47	3.06	2.57	31.8%	7.8%	—	K 22.3% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.75
2026	20	ACIN	15	14	61	3.84	3.21	24.1%	12.2%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	21	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	20.0%	12.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCIN	5	5	25	4.71	4.59	21.8%	10.5%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBCIN	7	7	37	4.50	4.36	22.8%	9.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJuan Nuñez (age 21) · José López (age 21) · Christian Roa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.0%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	47	192	61	15	4	80%	3.1	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	2.4%	3.06	3.75	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	47	192	61	15	4	80%	3.1	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	2.4%	3.06	3.75	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	47	192	61	15	4	80%	3.1	31.8%	7.8%	24.0%	2.1%	3.06	2.57	—
2026	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	15	14	61	278	67	34	3	93%	4.1	17.8%	14.4%	3.4%	1.4%	3.84	4.19	—
2026	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	15	14	61	278	67	34	3	93%	4.1	17.8%	14.4%	3.4%	1.4%	3.84	4.19	—
2026	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	15	14	61	278	67	34	3	93%	4.1	24.1%	12.2%	11.9%	1.1%	3.84	3.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	12.0%	8.0%	2.8%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	51	215	47	23	6	100%	5.1	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	2.7%	4.59	4.47	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	51	215	49	20	6	100%	5.1	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.24	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	51	215	50	19	6	100%	5.7	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	2.7%	4.22	4.10	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	209	50	18	6	100%	6.2	23.8%	8.5%	15.3%	2.7%	4.10	4.02	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	211	51	18	6	100%	6.2	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.04	4.00	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	206	49	18	6	100%	6.1	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.7%	4.04	4.04	+0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	25	106	23	11	3	100%	5.0	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.59	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	37	156	36	15	5	100%	5.3	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.36	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	42	177	42	16	5	100%	5.2	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.34	4.22	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	44	186	44	16	5	100%	5.5	23.8%	8.5%	15.3%	2.9%	4.22	4.14	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	47	16	6	100%	5.8	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.16	4.12	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	45	190	46	16	6	100%	5.6	24.0%	8.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.16	4.16	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	239	1009	236	90	29	100%	5.7	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.31	3.85	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	197	75	24	100%	5.7	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.31	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		30	26	108	470	92	59	9	87%	3.6	19.6%	12.5%	7.2%	1.8%	3.50	4.01	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	48	200	870	171	108	16	87%	3.6	19.6%	12.5%	7.2%	1.8%	3.50	4.01	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 61 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.19 (+0.99)K% 24.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.10%	—	×0.740	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.23%	—	×1.180	14.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 30 IPFIP 2.72 → 4.02 (+1.30)K% 32.5% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.52%	—	×0.680	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.250	10.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.252	×1.400	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 17 IPFIP 2.24 → 3.28 (+1.04)K% 30.4% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.740	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.180	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.032	×1.300	1.83%

Result: FIP 2.24 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sheng-En Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.27	22.7%	13.0%	153	-0.56	—	—	—
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	92
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	89
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	88
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	87
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	86
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	85
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	83
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	83
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	49	22.9%	9.4%	1.05	4.30
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*