Sheng-En Lin — OGILVIE

Sheng-En Lin P Daytona Tortugas

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%23.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL3555

CMD3055

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
Totals		$8M		$22M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	47	192	61	15	4	80%	3.1	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	2.4%	3.06	3.75	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	47	192	61	15	4	80%	3.1	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	2.4%	3.06	3.75	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	47	192	61	15	4	80%	3.1	31.8%	7.8%	24.0%	2.1%	3.06	2.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	15	14	61	278	67	34	3	93%	4.1	17.8%	14.4%	3.4%	1.4%	3.84	4.19	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	15	14	61	278	67	34	3	93%	4.1	17.8%	14.4%	3.4%	1.4%	3.84	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	CIN	15	14	61	278	67	34	3	93%	4.1	24.1%	12.2%	11.9%	1.1%	3.84	3.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	63	265	63	22	8	100%	4.8	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	2.9%	4.16	4.11	+0.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	66	278	69	22	8	100%	5.1	24.7%	7.8%	16.9%	2.8%	4.03	3.94	+0.8
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	68	288	73	21	8	100%	5.3	25.4%	7.4%	17.9%	2.8%	3.91	3.82	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	70	296	76	21	8	100%	5.8	25.9%	7.2%	18.6%	2.8%	3.81	3.74	+1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	299	79	21	8	100%	5.9	26.2%	7.1%	19.1%	2.8%	3.73	3.68	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	299	79	21	8	100%	5.9	26.5%	7.1%	19.4%	2.8%	3.69	3.66	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	70	295	78	21	8	100%	5.8	26.4%	7.2%	19.3%	2.8%	3.70	3.70	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	286	75	21	8	100%	6.2	26.3%	7.3%	19.0%	2.9%	3.75	3.78	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	273	71	21	8	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.5%	18.5%	3.1%	3.85	3.91	+0.8
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	31	131	31	11	4	100%	5.2	23.8%	8.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.29	4.24	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	48	203	50	16	6	100%	5.3	24.7%	7.8%	16.9%	3.1%	4.15	4.06	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	58	245	62	18	7	100%	5.3	25.4%	7.4%	17.9%	3.0%	4.03	3.94	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	62	262	68	19	8	100%	5.6	25.9%	7.2%	18.6%	3.0%	3.93	3.86	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	72	20	8	100%	5.9	26.2%	7.1%	19.1%	3.0%	3.85	3.80	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	74	20	8	100%	6.0	26.5%	7.1%	19.4%	3.0%	3.81	3.78	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	74	20	8	100%	6.0	26.4%	7.2%	19.3%	3.0%	3.82	3.82	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	71	20	9	100%	5.8	26.3%	7.3%	19.0%	3.1%	3.88	3.91	+0.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	67	19	9	100%	6.1	26.1%	7.5%	18.5%	3.3%	3.98	4.04	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	92	522	2204	570	162	68	100%	5.7	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	3.1%	3.95	3.54	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	218	62	26	100%	5.7	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	3.1%	3.95	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		30	26	108	470	92	59	9	87%	3.6	19.6%	12.5%	7.2%	1.8%	3.50	4.01	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	48	200	870	171	108	16	87%	3.6	19.6%	12.5%	7.2%	1.8%	3.50	4.01	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sheng-En Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	23.4%	8.7%	2.9%	—	3.95	24.6%	16.8%	197	-0.27	—	—	—
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.91	18.6%	8.8%	311	+1.74	3.17	421	86
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	84
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	84
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	81
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	81
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Yordi Rosario R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	21.3%	6.7%	2.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	163	79
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	79
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	78
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.77	18.1%	7.5%	330	+1.48	3.29	349	78
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	64	25.6%	7.5%	1.10	3.86
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81