Cam Tilly — OGILVIE

Cam Tilly P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%21.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—55

CTRL—40

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$5M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	13	12	54	233	52	22	7	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	—
YTD	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	13	12	54	233	52	22	7	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	13	12	54	233	52	22	7	92%	4.2	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	89	377	86	37	11	100%	5.2	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.42	+0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	117	496	116	46	15	100%	5.6	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.28	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	137	578	137	51	17	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.21	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	149	629	150	55	18	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.9%	4.23	4.19	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	147	619	148	55	18	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.23	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	142	601	143	54	19	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.0%	14.7%	3.1%	4.28	4.31	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	136	574	135	53	19	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.44	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	128	539	125	52	19	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	119	503	115	50	18	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.7%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	110	465	104	48	18	100%	6.1	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.9%	4.91	5.05	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	44	186	42	18	6	100%	5.5	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.42	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	82	346	81	32	10	100%	5.5	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.28	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	111	469	111	42	14	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.21	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	130	549	131	48	16	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.9%	4.23	4.19	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	132	557	133	49	17	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.23	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	131	553	131	50	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	9.0%	14.7%	3.1%	4.28	4.31	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	126	532	125	49	17	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.44	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	120	507	117	48	17	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	113	477	109	47	17	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.7%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	105	443	99	46	17	100%	5.8	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.9%	4.90	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		185	185	1094	4620	1081	430	148	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.2%	4.42	4.07	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	79	27	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.2%	4.42	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		13	12	54	233	38	26	9	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	858	142	96	33	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cam Tilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	21.6%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.29	23.4%	14.2%	344	-0.36	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	89
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	89
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	87
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	86
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	86
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	85
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	84
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	84
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	120	23.3%	9.4%	1.23	4.43
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12