Cam Tilly
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 46 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%21.6%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 13 | 12 | 54 | 233 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 92% | 4.2 | 16.5% | 11.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.64 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 46 | 193 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 100 | 426 | 94 | 41 | 13 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 78 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 108 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 129 | 544 | 129 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 141 | 594 | 142 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 139 | 586 | 140 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 134 | 568 | 135 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 128 | 542 | 128 | 49 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 118 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 113 | 475 | 108 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 98 | 44 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 96 | 404 | 88 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 5.10 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 75 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 105 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 124 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 126 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 124 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 118 | 45 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 111 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 103 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 93 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 4.86 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 84 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 5.09 | 5.25 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 189 | 189 | 1122 | 4738 | 1102 | 431 | 156 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.09 | +17.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 77 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 13 | 12 | 54 | 233 | 38 | 26 | 9 | 92% | 4.2 | 16.5% | 11.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.64 | 5.26 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 44 | 200 | 858 | 142 | 96 | 33 | 92% | 4.2 | 16.5% | 11.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.64 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cam Tilly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 320 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 90 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 90 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 89 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 88 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 88 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 87 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 87 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 86 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 85 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 85 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 85 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 85 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 85 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 85 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 84 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 83 |
| Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 75 | +0.76 | 4.70 | 159 | 83 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 83 |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 112 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 1.26 | 4.43 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |