Cam Tilly

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 207 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#783ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ANYM	13	12	54	4.64	4.08	22.3%	9.4%	—	K 16.5% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.26
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	—	—	0	5.05	5.05	18.6%	11.3%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBNYM	5	5	29	4.84	4.75	20.3%	10.3%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBNYM	9	9	51	4.66	4.57	21.4%	9.7%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsWill Sanders (age 22) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · Dinelson Lamet (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%18.6%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	13	12	54	233	52	22	7	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	—
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	13	12	54	233	52	22	7	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	—
2026	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	13	12	54	233	52	22	7	92%	4.2	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.6%	11.3%	7.3%	3.1%	5.05	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	95	401	82	41	12	100%	5.6	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.84	4.75	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	100	421	90	41	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.66	4.57	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	106	447	98	43	14	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.56	4.51	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	102	433	95	41	13	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	98	412	90	40	13	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.2%	4.59	4.62	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	91	383	83	38	13	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.9%	11.6%	3.3%	4.69	4.75	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	82	347	74	36	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.93	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	74	311	65	33	12	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.8%	5.01	5.13	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	29	122	25	13	4	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.1%	4.84	4.75	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	51	215	46	21	7	100%	5.7	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.66	4.57	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	69	291	64	28	9	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.56	4.51	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	75	317	70	30	10	100%	6.2	21.9%	9.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	77	325	71	32	10	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.2%	4.59	4.62	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	75	317	68	31	11	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.9%	11.6%	3.3%	4.69	4.75	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	70	296	63	30	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.5%	4.83	4.93	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	65	274	57	29	10	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.8%	5.00	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	511	2158	464	214	71	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	3.3%	4.70	4.34	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	182	84	28	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	3.3%	4.70	4.34	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		13	12	54	233	38	26	9	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	858	142	96	33	92%	4.2	16.5%	11.1%	5.4%	3.9%	4.64	5.26	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 54 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.26 (+1.20)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.32%	—	×0.740	16.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×1.180	11.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cam Tilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.61	21.3%	11.4%	301	-0.44	—	—	—
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	93
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	92
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	90
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	90
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	90
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	90
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	89
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	88
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	88
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	87
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	87
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	87
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	87
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	87
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	86
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	86
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	93	21.1%	10.1%	1.25	4.74
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Darrell Jackson ('78-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.1	82	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.05*	4.43*
Bob Sebra ('85-'90, 1 WAR*)	1.8	92	21.9%*	8.8%*	1.13*	5.05*