Aidan Smith — OGILVIE

Aidan SmithOF Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION216 act + 144 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .245 / .318

PA144

HR4

SB7

K%38

BB%7

BABIP270

ISO136

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	84	75	11	1	2	1	7	32	2	6	1	147	238	253	491	107	238	38	8	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	84	72	15	2	3	1	10	24	2	6	1	208	321	361	683	153	298	29	12	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	395	84	24	1	14	37	151	8	41	6	213	293	385	678	172	299	34	8	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	368	106	33	1	11	64	103	8	41	6	288	405	473	877	185	368	23	14	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	515	464	84	10	2	14	42	205	5	45	7	181	256	302	558	121	281	40	8	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	515	442	104	14	4	14	64	154	5	45	7	235	339	380	719	145	324	30	12	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	TB	—	216	196	31	4	2	5	12	88	1	14	1	158	211	276	486	117	241	41	6	211	20	-20	+2	+0	-1	+6	-1.3
YTD	22	A+	TB	—	216	189	37	5	2	7	19	65	1	14	1	196	273	354	627	159	246	30	9	273	67	-8	+2	+0	-1	+6	-0.1
ROS	22	A+	TB	0%	144	132	24	4	1	4	10	55	1	7	1	182	245	318	563	136	266	38	7	249	49	-8	+1	+1	-1	+4	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						269	0	0	243	45	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	TB	—	217	197	31	4	2	5	12	88	1	14	1	157	210	274	484	117	239	41	6	211	20	-20	+2	+0	-1	+6	-1.3
TOT	22	A+	TB	—	360	328	55	8	3	9	22	143	2	21	2	168	224	293	517	125	253	40	6	226	31	-28	+3	+1	-2	+10	-1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TB	35%	520	472	89	15	2	16	39	188	4	20	3	189	256	331	587	142	269	36	8	263	60	-24	+3	+2	-3	+15	-0.8
2028	24	MLB	TB	46%	556	503	98	17	3	17	43	193	5	20	3	195	265	342	607	147	272	35	8	272	66	-21	+3	+2	-3	+16	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	TB	35%	180	163	31	5	1	5	13	65	2	7	1	190	258	325	584	135	273	36	7	257	55	-9	+1	+1	-1	+5	-0.4
2028	24	MLB	TB	46%	257	233	46	8	1	8	20	89	2	9	1	197	267	343	610	146	276	35	8	266	62	-11	+1	+1	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	438	397	77	13	2	13	33	154	4	16	2	194	263	335	598	141	276	35	8	262	59	-20	+2	+2	-3	+12	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	114	19	3	19	49	229	6	24	3	194	262	333	595	139	276	35	8	262	59	-30	+4	+2	-4	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	2263	2041	390	71	11	66	178	824	25	139	21	191	264	334	598	143	278	36	8	266	62	-98	+19	+4	-14	+64	-2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	112	20	3	19	51	237	7	40	6	191	264	333	596	142	278	36	8	266	62	-28	+6	+1	-4	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	54	49	9	2	1	1	4	16	1	0	0	184	259	327	586	143	250	30	7	265	61	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	30	23	6	0	2	0	6	8	1	6	1	261	433	435	868	174	400	27	20	392	158	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	368	106	33	1	11	64	103	8	41	6	288	405	473	877	185	368	23	14	389	156	+28	+6	—	—	+13	4.7
2025	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	459	397	94	14	2	14	53	143	5	41	6	237	334	388	722	151	328	31	12	324	106	+3	+6	—	—	+13	2.3
2025	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	56	45	10	0	2	0	11	11	0	4	1	222	375	311	686	89	294	20	20	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	438	13	16	194	259	340	-3	+4	-0.6	-0.3
	/162	664	20	25	194	259	340	-4.0	+5.8	-0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aidan Smith (OGILVIE)	22	43→40	50	58→60	55	168/224/293	125	253	9	21	40%	6%	31	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kenedy Corona 2023 · A	23	42→40	47→45	53→55	40	210/270/346	137	300	15	21	34%	7%	69	-0.4	202/265/316	114	286	11	24	32%	7%	59	-1.1	197/264/288	92	275	8	27	30%	7%	49	-1.1
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	39→38	47→50	54→55	43	198/273/336	137	281	14	17	33%	8%	69	-0.4	191/270/311	120	270	12	17	32%	8%	62	-0.9	168/253/270	102	226	10	19	29%	8%	41	-1.2
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39	44→45	59→60	43	191/272/302	111	287	11	31	35%	8%	60	-1.0	201/274/322	121	279	12	35	31%	8%	66	-0.6	195/268/315	120	262	12	40	29%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Junior Perez 2023 · A	22	41→40	45→50	54→55	41	194/272/317	123	324	13	19	41%	9%	63	-0.8	173/241/286	113	303	12	25	43%	8%	43	-2.2	159/228/295	136	252	16	23	42%	8%	37	-2.0
✕Sergio Garcia 2013 · AAA	22	40	48→45	54→60	38	210/257/348	138	274	17	26	30%	5%	65	-0.7	212/245/313	101	297	10	25	31%	4%	49	-1.8	231/255/354	123	300	13	17	28%	2%	62	-0.4
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	44	44→45	56→55	43	211/290/329	118	311	11	16	33%	8%	74	-0.1	195/266/292	97	301	9	12	36%	7%	54	-1.4	169/241/249	80	256	8	12	35%	7%	31	-1.1
✕Daniel Carroll 2012 · A	23	44	45	58→60	41	212/287/330	118	324	13	31	36%	8%	73	-0.1	207/281/307	100	312	9	28	34%	7%	64	-0.8	179/256/244	65	282	4	28	35%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Kyren Paris 2023 · AA	21	41→49	47→50	60	41	197/277/337	139	311	14	27	39%	8%	71	-0.3	196/281/328	132	312	14	30	38%	10%	71	-0.3	182/275/315	133	288	15	35	39%	10%	62	-0.6
✕A.J. Vukovich 2023 · AA	22	42→52	50	55	33	221/252/364	143	298	19	21	33%	3%	66	-0.6	219/269/353	134	323	15	13	35%	6%	71	-0.3	237/291/395	158	341	19	3	35%	7%	87	+0.5
✕Michael Crouse 2012 · A	21	40→37	47→50	57→55	37	195/259/334	139	309	14	24	40%	7%	62	-0.9	184/249/301	117	302	12	19	40%	7%	49	-1.8	191/257/319	128	297	12	19	38%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Monte Harrison 2018 · A	22	41→44	45→50	53→60	34	200/258/319	119	317	13	15	39%	5%	58	-1.2	211/264/341	130	352	14	24	42%	5%	66	-0.6	206/263/349	143	355	18	31	44%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Daniel Mateo 2023 · A	22	45→44	44→45	55	34	222/258/334	112	318	13	26	34%	4%	61	-1.0	198/229/302	104	282	11	22	33%	3%	40	-2.4	180/205/276	97	251	10	24	33%	2%	20	-2.2
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	44	47→50	58→50	45	221/288/362	141	302	14	18	31%	8%	81	+0.4	208/272/332	124	270	14	11	27%	8%	66	-0.6	216/281/385	169	263	20	13	26%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Mason Auer 2023 · A	22	46	46→45	63→60	42	228/288/361	133	305	13	29	29%	7%	81	+0.4	187/243/297	110	292	10	31	37%	6%	46	-2.0	158/215/259	101	256	10	37	40%	5%	21	-2.6
✕Denzel Clarke 2023 · A	23	44→39	50	57→55	41	208/288/365	157	341	17	22	41%	9%	83	+0.6	208/282/358	150	332	16	23	39%	7%	78	+0.2	203/276/348	144	322	15	27	39%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Miguel Hiraldo 2023 · A	22	40→48	42→45	56→55	37	198/247/304	106	299	10	21	36%	6%	48	-1.9	206/251/309	103	330	10	20	39%	5%	51	-1.7	204/249/303	99	331	10	22	40%	4%	46	-1.0
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Billy Cook 2022 · A	23	44→41	47→50	53→55	34	214/266/349	135	339	15	16	40%	5%	69	-0.4	194/253/332	138	294	16	22	38%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/345	138	286	17	24	33%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Joe Gray Jr. 2022 · A	22	38→33	49→45	57→50	40	195/271/346	151	289	16	15	37%	7%	71	-0.3	163/227/276	113	266	12	14	41%	6%	34	-2.8	143/203/244	102	233	12	13	43%	6%	14	-3.5
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A	23	43→37	45	58→60	43	208/292/338	130	293	11	31	31%	7%	78	+0.2	200/284/319	119	303	12	26	35%	8%	70	-0.3	152/256/252	100	238	14	36	39%	9%	40	-0.9