Aidan Smith — OGILVIE

Aidan SmithOF Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs A+ H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION355 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP277

ISO130

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	54	49	9	2	1	1	4	16	1	0	0	184	259	327	586	143	250	30	7	265	66	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	30	23	6	0	2	0	6	8	1	6	1	261	433	435	868	174	400	27	20	392	152	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	368	106	33	1	11	64	103	8	41	6	288	405	473	877	185	368	23	14	389	149	+26	+6	—	—	+10	4.2
2025	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	459	397	94	14	2	14	53	143	5	41	6	237	334	388	722	151	328	31	12	324	106	+3	+6	—	—	+10	1.9
2025	21	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	56	45	10	0	2	0	11	11	0	4	1	222	375	311	686	89	294	20	20	324	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	54	50	7	1	1	1	3	21	1	0	0	140	204	260	464	120	216	39	6	198	20	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	30	25	4	0	1	0	4	12	1	6	1	160	300	240	540	80	317	40	13	264	65	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	393	84	24	1	11	39	148	8	41	6	214	298	364	662	150	300	33	9	290	82	-9	+6	—	—	+10	0.6
2025	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	459	414	73	9	2	11	36	187	5	41	6	176	251	287	538	111	278	41	8	241	49	-28	+6	—	—	+10	-1.2
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	84	75	11	1	2	1	7	33	2	6	1	147	238	253	491	107	244	39	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	84	72	15	2	3	1	10	24	2	6	1	208	321	361	683	153	298	29	12	311	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	393	84	24	1	11	39	148	8	41	6	214	298	364	662	150	307	33	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	368	106	33	1	11	64	103	8	41	6	288	405	473	877	185	368	23	14	389	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	515	465	84	11	2	13	41	210	5	45	7	181	254	297	551	116	289	41	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	515	442	104	14	4	14	64	154	5	45	7	235	339	380	719	145	324	30	12	324	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	84	75	11	1	2	1	7	33	2	6	1	147	238	253	491	107	252	39	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	394	84	24	1	11	39	148	8	41	6	213	298	363	661	150	300	33	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	515	464	84	11	2	13	41	210	5	45	7	181	254	297	552	116	278	41	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	84	75	11	1	2	1	7	33	2	6	1	147	238	253	491	107	252	39	8	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	444	394	84	24	1	11	39	148	8	41	6	213	298	363	661	150	300	33	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	515	464	84	11	2	13	41	210	5	45	7	181	254	297	552	116	278	41	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	NYM	—	355	320	61	7	2	11	25	144	1	27	3	191	251	328	580	138	291	41	7	253	57	-18	+4	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK RAW	NYM	—	28	23	4	0	1	0	4	4	0	2	0	174	296	261	557	87	200	14	14	254	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	NYM	—	327	284	70	9	1	15	34	103	1	25	3	246	329	444	773	197	320	31	10	335	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	NYM	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		285	40	10	259	61	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	NYM	—	365	329	62	7	2	11	26	148	1	28	3	188	250	322	572	134	288	41	7	253	57	-19	+4	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	35%	496	451	89	14	2	15	39	181	3	21	3	197	266	337	603	140	287	36	8	272	70	-18	+3	+2	-3	+11	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	46%	535	483	99	16	2	17	43	188	4	21	3	205	275	352	627	147	288	35	8	280	75	-16	+3	+2	-3	+12	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	577	521	107	17	2	19	47	198	4	22	3	205	276	355	631	150	288	34	8	284	79	-15	+3	+2	-3	+13	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	588	531	111	18	2	20	48	200	4	21	3	209	280	363	643	154	288	34	8	286	80	-14	+3	+2	-4	+13	0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	590	532	111	18	2	20	49	201	4	20	3	209	280	363	643	154	288	34	8	287	80	-14	+3	+2	-4	+13	0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	54%	587	529	109	18	2	19	49	201	4	18	2	206	278	355	634	149	287	34	8	285	79	-14	+3	+1	-4	+13	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	35%	171	155	30	5	1	5	13	62	1	7	1	194	260	335	596	142	279	36	8	263	70	-6	+1	+1	-1	+4	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	46%	247	223	45	7	1	8	20	87	2	10	1	202	273	350	623	148	280	35	8	270	75	-7	+2	+1	-1	+5	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	298	270	55	9	1	10	24	102	2	11	1	204	274	356	629	152	281	34	8	275	79	-8	+2	+1	-2	+6	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	319	288	58	9	1	11	26	108	2	11	1	201	272	354	626	153	281	34	8	277	80	-8	+2	+1	-2	+7	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	320	288	58	9	1	11	27	109	2	11	1	201	274	354	629	153	280	34	8	277	80	-8	+2	+1	-2	+7	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	54%	319	287	57	9	1	10	27	109	2	10	1	199	272	341	614	143	280	34	8	276	79	-8	+2	+1	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1674	1511	303	48	6	55	137	577	11	60	6	201	272	349	621	149	279	34	8	274	74	-44	+10	+6	-10	+36	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	117	19	2	21	53	224	4	23	2	199	270	346	616	147	278	34	8	274	74	-17	+4	+2	-4	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4426	3989	806	137	17	135	363	1564	38	216	31	202	275	346	621	144	290	35	8	277	74	-91	+18	+11	-20	+73	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	118	20	2	20	53	230	6	32	5	201	275	345	620	143	288	35	8	277	74	-17	+3	+2	-4	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	2.7	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
/162	664	16	25	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.5	1,676	55	60	207	275	359	-10	+11	0.1	0.2
/162	664	22	24	-4.0	+4.5	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aidan Smith (OGILVIE)	22	43→40	50	58→60	55	187/253/318	130	285	9	19	39%	8%	61	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Denzel Clarke 2023 · A	23	43→44	49→50	57→55	40	203/285/356	153	342	16	22	42%	9%	82	-0.0	214/287/358	144	336	14	23	38%	8%	82	+0.0	214/286/353	139	331	13	27	36%	7%	78	-0.2
✕A.J. Vukovich 2023 · AA	22	42→51	47→50	56→55	33	217/247/347	131	298	16	21	33%	3%	64	-1.3	222/270/355	133	324	15	13	34%	6%	75	-0.5	231/284/378	147	335	17	2	35%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Kyren Paris 2023 · AA	21	41→47	45	60	41	193/274/319	125	316	12	27	39%	8%	69	-0.9	192/279/314	122	305	12	30	38%	10%	70	-0.9	180/273/303	123	282	14	35	38%	10%	63	-0.9
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	38→43	43→45	59→60	43	188/270/295	107	285	11	31	36%	8%	62	-1.4	205/277/320	115	284	11	35	30%	8%	70	-0.9	202/274/318	116	272	11	40	28%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Kenedy Corona 2023 · A	23	43→42	47→50	53→55	40	215/272/353	138	300	15	21	33%	6%	76	-0.4	203/266/317	114	284	11	24	31%	7%	65	-1.2	193/264/284	90	267	9	27	29%	7%	54	-1.3
✕Jonatan Clase 2023 · A	21	42→46	48→50	62→65	42	205/281/348	143	310	15	32	36%	8%	78	-0.3	208/278/347	139	296	14	42	32%	8%	76	-0.4	205/274/337	132	284	13	47	31%	8%	71	-0.7
✕Shay Whitcomb 2022 · A	23	45→44	49→55	54→55	35	218/273/361	143	345	18	21	40%	6%	78	-0.3	199/249/347	148	291	20	18	37%	5%	66	-1.1	212/276/372	160	270	22	23	29%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Brewer Hicklen 2019 · A	23	43→52	48→50	57→60	33	212/267/352	140	327	16	23	38%	5%	74	-0.6	211/275/348	137	328	16	28	38%	6%	76	-0.4	212/288/361	150	295	19	38	33%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→50	53→55	40	202/262/329	127	284	11	19	32%	6%	66	-1.1	201/268/318	117	295	9	17	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	43	44→45	56→55	44	209/290/327	118	301	11	16	32%	8%	76	-0.4	195/268/294	99	299	9	12	35%	8%	61	-1.5	172/246/253	81	260	7	12	34%	7%	41	-1.1
✕Ryan Bliss 2022 · A	22	43→49	47→45	51→60	39	215/265/348	133	294	15	16	31%	6%	72	-0.7	207/268/330	123	280	12	32	29%	7%	69	-0.9	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Junior Perez 2023 · A	22	40→39	45→50	54→55	41	188/268/310	122	322	13	19	42%	9%	65	-1.2	179/249/297	118	302	12	25	41%	8%	54	-2.0	167/239/308	141	259	16	25	40%	8%	52	-1.7
✕Michael Crouse 2012 · A	21	41→39	46→50	57→55	38	198/262/336	138	311	13	24	39%	7%	68	-1.0	188/254/305	117	304	11	19	39%	7%	58	-1.7	195/263/321	126	297	12	19	36%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Jorge Mateo 2018 · AA	23	42→48	43→50	63→65	37	204/248/326	122	291	9	34	32%	5%	59	-1.6	200/239/316	116	294	8	24	33%	4%	53	-2.1	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	36→34	50→60	50	36	193/240/341	148	278	18	14	37%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/387	180	291	23	14	36%	7%	83	+0.1	201/270/393	193	274	26	13	36%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	40→38	47→50	54→55	44	202/275/339	137	273	14	17	30%	8%	74	-0.6	192/271/310	118	266	11	17	30%	8%	66	-1.1	166/252/265	99	226	9	19	29%	8%	47	-1.4
✕Daniel Mateo 2023 · A	22	45→43	44→45	56→55	34	220/257/328	108	319	12	26	34%	4%	63	-1.3	201/232/303	102	285	10	22	32%	3%	48	-2.5	186/211/281	96	258	10	24	32%	3%	33	-2.1
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A	23	46→48	42→45	56→65	42	222/289/334	112	305	9	24	29%	7%	78	-0.3	221/279/318	97	306	7	25	28%	6%	70	-0.9	223/290/349	126	282	12	55	24%	7%	77	-0.2
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45→44	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	211/273/334	123	271	14	11	27%	7%	72	-0.7	224/287/394	170	271	21	14	25%	7%	89	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps