Junior Perez
CF Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAOAK | 390 | .220/.307/.372 | 8 | 28 | 36 | — | .161/.229/.269 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 616 | .229/.347/.462 | 26 | 29 | 69 | — | .182/.269/.356 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAACWS | 364 | .219/.304/.420 | 13 | 19 | 53 | — | .179/.243/.327 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBCWS | 36 | .171/.194/.429 | 3 | 0 | 66 | 0.0 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBCWS | 46 | .188/.259/.349 | 1 | 2 | 68 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBCWS | 120 | .190/.262/.350 | 4 | 4 | 69 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 143 | .191/.263/.348 | 4 | 5 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 263 | 204 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 80 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 176 | 356 | 270 | 626 | 93 | 268 | 30 | 20 | 303 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | — | 238 | 209 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 59 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 268 | 352 | 512 | 864 | 244 | 319 | 25 | 10 | 375 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 386 | 329 | 68 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 145 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 207 | 319 | 359 | 677 | 152 | 337 | 38 | 13 | 307 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 482 | 398 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 70 | 148 | 5 | 32 | 7 | 249 | 368 | 425 | 792 | 176 | 347 | 31 | 15 | 351 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 434 | 103 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 150 | 3 | 41 | 9 | 237 | 322 | 392 | 713 | 154 | 332 | 30 | 10 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 390 | 341 | 75 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 138 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 220 | 307 | 372 | 680 | 152 | 337 | 35 | 11 | 302 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 182 | 151 | 45 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 49 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 298 | 414 | 642 | 1.057 | 344 | 363 | 27 | 16 | 449 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 405 | 339 | 68 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 57 | 116 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 201 | 321 | 398 | 719 | 198 | 255 | 29 | 14 | 319 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 29 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 286 | 240 | 526 | 40 | 312 | 31 | 10 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 194 | 429 | 623 | 257 | 167 | 39 | 3 | 268 | 66 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 364 | 319 | 70 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 129 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 219 | 304 | 420 | 725 | 201 | 315 | 35 | 10 | 316 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 194 | 429 | 623 | 257 | 167 | 39 | 3 | 268 | 68 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 263 | 219 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 105 | 249 | 146 | 395 | 41 | 170 | 37 | 14 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 2 | — | 238 | 219 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 85 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 178 | 237 | 338 | 575 | 160 | 239 | 36 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 386 | 345 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 193 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 148 | 232 | 246 | 479 | 99 | 304 | 50 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 482 | 420 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 192 | 5 | 32 | 7 | 198 | 288 | 329 | 616 | 131 | 301 | 40 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 450 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 203 | 3 | 41 | 9 | 171 | 236 | 267 | 502 | 96 | 286 | 41 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 390 | 353 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 174 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 161 | 229 | 269 | 498 | 108 | 279 | 45 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 182 | 159 | 38 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 57 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 239 | 331 | 478 | 809 | 239 | 314 | 31 | 12 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 405 | 359 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 143 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 156 | 241 | 301 | 541 | 145 | 212 | 35 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 36 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 194 | 429 | 623 | 257 | 167 | 39 | 3 | 265 | 66 | -1 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 364 | 330 | 59 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 155 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 179 | 243 | 327 | 570 | 148 | 282 | 43 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 263 | 219 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 105 | 249 | 146 | 395 | 41 | 180 | 37 | 14 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 263 | 204 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 80 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 176 | 356 | 270 | 626 | 93 | 268 | 30 | 20 | 303 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 2 | — | 238 | 219 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 85 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 178 | 237 | 338 | 575 | 160 | 242 | 36 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Padres 2 | — | 238 | 209 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 59 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 268 | 352 | 512 | 864 | 244 | 319 | 25 | 10 | 375 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 386 | 345 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 193 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 148 | 232 | 246 | 479 | 99 | 309 | 50 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 386 | 329 | 68 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 145 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 207 | 319 | 359 | 677 | 152 | 337 | 38 | 13 | 307 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 482 | 420 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 192 | 5 | 32 | 7 | 198 | 288 | 329 | 616 | 131 | 318 | 40 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 482 | 398 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 70 | 148 | 5 | 32 | 7 | 249 | 368 | 425 | 792 | 176 | 347 | 31 | 15 | 351 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 450 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 203 | 3 | 41 | 9 | 171 | 236 | 267 | 502 | 96 | 289 | 41 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 434 | 103 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 150 | 3 | 41 | 9 | 237 | 322 | 392 | 713 | 154 | 332 | 30 | 10 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 390 | 353 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 174 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 161 | 229 | 269 | 498 | 108 | 288 | 45 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | Midland RockHounds | — | 390 | 341 | 75 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 138 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 220 | 307 | 372 | 680 | 152 | 337 | 35 | 11 | 302 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 616 | 543 | 98 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 62 | 211 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 180 | 268 | 350 | 618 | 169 | 249 | 34 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 616 | 515 | 118 | 30 | 6 | 26 | 90 | 174 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 229 | 347 | 462 | 809 | 233 | 288 | 28 | 15 | 354 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 365 | 65 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 169 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 178 | 239 | 337 | 576 | 159 | 282 | 42 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 400 | 354 | 76 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 39 | 143 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 215 | 294 | 421 | 715 | 206 | 302 | 36 | 10 | 312 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 263 | 219 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 105 | 249 | 146 | 395 | 41 | 170 | 37 | 14 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 2 | — | 238 | 219 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 85 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 178 | 237 | 338 | 575 | 160 | 239 | 36 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 386 | 345 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 193 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 148 | 232 | 246 | 479 | 99 | 304 | 50 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 482 | 426 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 192 | 5 | 32 | 7 | 195 | 288 | 324 | 611 | 129 | 301 | 40 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 452 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 203 | 3 | 41 | 9 | 170 | 236 | 265 | 501 | 95 | 286 | 41 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 390 | 356 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 174 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 160 | 229 | 267 | 496 | 107 | 279 | 45 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 616 | 546 | 98 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 62 | 211 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 179 | 268 | 348 | 616 | 168 | 244 | 34 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 368 | 65 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 169 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 177 | 239 | 334 | 573 | 158 | 272 | 42 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 390 | 356 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 174 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 160 | 229 | 267 | 496 | 107 | 279 | 45 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 616 | 546 | 98 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 62 | 211 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 179 | 268 | 348 | 616 | 168 | 244 | 34 | 10 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 400 | 368 | 65 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 169 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 177 | 239 | 334 | 573 | 158 | 272 | 42 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 30% | 380 | 344 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 150 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 187 | 258 | 346 | 604 | 158 | 285 | 39 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -14 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 30% | 46 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 259 | 349 | 608 | 161 | 286 | 39 | 9 | 271 | 68 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 42% | 290 | 263 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 112 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 189 | 261 | 346 | 607 | 157 | 285 | 39 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -11 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 48% | 300 | 271 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 114 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 190 | 262 | 345 | 607 | 155 | 285 | 38 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 42% | 120 | 109 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 262 | 350 | 611 | 159 | 286 | 38 | 8 | 272 | 69 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 48% | 143 | 129 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 191 | 263 | 348 | 611 | 157 | 286 | 38 | 8 | 272 | 69 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 299 | 273 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 115 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 194 | 259 | 370 | 629 | 176 | 282 | 38 | 8 | 272 | 53 | -11 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +6 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 115 | 24 | 4 | 24 | 50 | 250 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 194 | 259 | 369 | 628 | 175 | 282 | 38 | 8 | 272 | 53 | -24 | +1 | +1 | +5 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4013 | 3588 | 621 | 142 | 25 | 93 | 352 | 1612 | 26 | 223 | 49 | 173 | 252 | 304 | 556 | 131 | 276 | 40 | 9 | 247 | 53 | -29 | +3 | +2 | +4 | +17 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 100 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 57 | 261 | 4 | 36 | 8 | 172 | 251 | 303 | 554 | 131 | 274 | 40 | 9 | 247 | 53 | -24 | +2 | +2 | +3 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 364 PAwOBA .311 → .246 (−65)K% 35.4% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 17.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.033 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .311 → .246; ISO .201 → .151; BABIP .315 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 405 PAwOBA .313 → .239 (−75)K% 28.6% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.64% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.07% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.25% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 13.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.73% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.24% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.28% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.88% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .313 → .239; ISO .198 → .152; BABIP .255 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 182 PAwOBA .438 → .344 (−94)K% 26.9% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.93% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 11.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 16.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.73% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 12.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 7.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .438 → .344; ISO .344 → .245; BABIP .363 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 390 PAwOBA .297 → .222 (−75)K% 35.4% → 44.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.38% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.20% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.82% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.998 | ×1.027 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.44% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .297 → .222; ISO .152 → .112; BABIP .337 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 493 PAwOBA .311 → .225 (−86)K% 30.4% → 41.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.938 | ×1.270 | — | — | 41.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.036 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.83% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×1.012 | 19.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.51% | ÷0.946 | ×0.810 | ×0.956 | ×1.012 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.956 | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.209 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.83% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 88, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .311 → .225; ISO .154 → .101; BABIP .332 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AStockton Ports · 482 PAwOBA .347 → .268 (−79)K% 30.7% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.71% | ÷1.049 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.52% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.40% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.015 | 22.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.015 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×0.960 | ×1.015 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 106, K 110, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .347 → .268; ISO .176 → .133; BABIP .347 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AStockton Ports · 386 PAwOBA .301 → .217 (−83)K% 37.6% → 50.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.56% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.21% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.20% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×1.030 | 19.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.981 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.030 | 7.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.72% | ÷0.902 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×1.030 | 2.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.165 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .301 → .217; ISO .152 → .103; BABIP .337 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Padres 2 · 238 PAwOBA .365 → .252 (−113)K% 24.8% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 5.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 15.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 5.85% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .365 → .252; ISO .244 → .170; BABIP .319 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .