Matt Gorski
1B Oklahoma City Comets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAAPIT | 433 | .257/.323/.522 | 23 | 15 | 69 | — | .197/.246/.387 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAPIT | 88 | .278/.329/.519 | 4 | 2 | 76 | — | .222/.259/.395 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBPIT | 42 | .195/.214/.390 | 2 | 0 | 69 | -0.5 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/ROKLAD | 203 | .225/.313/.388 | 6 | 5 | 41 | — | .172/.234/.285 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBLAD | 16 | .212/.264/.382 | 1 | 1 | 80 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBLAD | 54 | .210/.262/.375 | 2 | 2 | 78 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 24 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 401 | 358 | 80 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 125 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 223 | 298 | 416 | 714 | 193 | 285 | 31 | 8 | 314 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 159 | 141 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 277 | 352 | 489 | 842 | 213 | 375 | 30 | 9 | 369 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 146 | 126 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 39 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 294 | 382 | 754 | 1.136 | 460 | 278 | 27 | 12 | 470 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 353 | 575 | 176 | 200 | 33 | 6 | 255 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 65 | 58 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 190 | 266 | 414 | 679 | 224 | 195 | 23 | 9 | 295 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 396 | 357 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 101 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 238 | 301 | 437 | 738 | 199 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 320 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 433 | 389 | 100 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 38 | 124 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 257 | 323 | 522 | 845 | 265 | 312 | 29 | 9 | 362 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 42 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 214 | 390 | 605 | 195 | 261 | 38 | 2 | 262 | 69 | -2 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 88 | 79 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 329 | 519 | 848 | 241 | 327 | 26 | 7 | 357 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 159 | 139 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 49 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 312 | 388 | 701 | 165 | 299 | 31 | 11 | 311 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 44 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 231 | 318 | 385 | 703 | 154 | 320 | 30 | 11 | 317 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 42 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 214 | 390 | 605 | 195 | 261 | 38 | 2 | 262 | 63 | -2 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +1 | -0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 401 | 370 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 165 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 217 | 281 | 498 | 119 | 243 | 41 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 159 | 147 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 59 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 231 | 289 | 388 | 677 | 156 | 349 | 37 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 146 | 134 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 51 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 201 | 257 | 478 | 735 | 276 | 224 | 35 | 6 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 294 | 461 | 176 | 173 | 44 | 6 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 65 | 60 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 150 | 203 | 300 | 503 | 150 | 172 | 29 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 396 | 366 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 123 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 189 | 237 | 328 | 564 | 139 | 233 | 31 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 433 | 401 | 79 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 26 | 157 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 197 | 246 | 387 | 632 | 190 | 260 | 36 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 42 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 214 | 390 | 605 | 195 | 261 | 38 | 2 | 271 | 69 | -2 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 88 | 81 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 259 | 395 | 654 | 173 | 269 | 33 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 159 | 145 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 242 | 290 | 532 | 110 | 262 | 37 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 44 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 146 | 205 | 268 | 473 | 122 | 233 | 43 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 401 | 370 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 165 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 162 | 217 | 281 | 498 | 119 | 250 | 41 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 401 | 358 | 80 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 125 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 223 | 298 | 416 | 714 | 193 | 285 | 31 | 8 | 314 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 323 | 297 | 63 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 118 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 212 | 271 | 424 | 695 | 212 | 285 | 37 | 7 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 323 | 284 | 79 | 11 | 4 | 24 | 33 | 92 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 278 | 358 | 599 | 957 | 320 | 324 | 28 | 10 | 409 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 461 | 426 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 141 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 185 | 234 | 329 | 563 | 143 | 234 | 31 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 461 | 415 | 96 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 116 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 231 | 296 | 434 | 730 | 202 | 266 | 25 | 7 | 317 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 433 | 401 | 79 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 26 | 157 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 197 | 246 | 387 | 632 | 190 | 267 | 36 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 433 | 389 | 100 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 38 | 124 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 257 | 323 | 522 | 845 | 265 | 312 | 29 | 9 | 362 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 122 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 244 | 393 | 638 | 180 | 280 | 35 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 130 | 120 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 291 | 475 | 766 | 225 | 308 | 30 | 5 | 327 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 203 | 186 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 234 | 285 | 519 | 113 | 264 | 38 | 7 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 203 | 178 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 225 | 313 | 388 | 701 | 163 | 304 | 31 | 11 | 312 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 401 | 372 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 165 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 161 | 217 | 280 | 497 | 118 | 243 | 41 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 323 | 296 | 63 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 118 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 213 | 271 | 426 | 697 | 213 | 283 | 37 | 7 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 461 | 431 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 141 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 183 | 234 | 325 | 559 | 142 | 224 | 31 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 433 | 404 | 79 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 26 | 157 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 196 | 246 | 384 | 630 | 188 | 260 | 36 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 124 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 244 | 387 | 631 | 177 | 266 | 35 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 203 | 186 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 234 | 285 | 519 | 113 | 256 | 38 | 7 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 433 | 404 | 79 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 26 | 157 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 196 | 246 | 384 | 630 | 188 | 260 | 36 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 124 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 244 | 387 | 631 | 177 | 266 | 35 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 203 | 186 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 172 | 234 | 285 | 519 | 113 | 256 | 38 | 7 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 10% | 253 | 235 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 85 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 215 | 267 | 384 | 651 | 169 | 292 | 34 | 6 | 286 | 80 | -6 | +1 | -1 | -5 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 264 | 382 | 646 | 170 | 285 | 31 | 6 | 284 | 80 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 27% | 196 | 182 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 213 | 265 | 377 | 642 | 164 | 289 | 34 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -5 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 27% | 54 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 262 | 375 | 637 | 164 | 282 | 33 | 6 | 281 | 78 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 96 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 229 | 370 | 599 | 174 | 259 | 35 | 4 | 273 | 60 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +2 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 623 | 122 | 14 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 230 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 196 | 229 | 371 | 600 | 175 | 260 | 35 | 4 | 273 | 60 | -22 | +0 | -16 | -22 | +14 | -4.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2302 | 2128 | 408 | 80 | 13 | 78 | 133 | 822 | 12 | 97 | 24 | 192 | 243 | 352 | 595 | 160 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 258 | 60 | -11 | +1 | -5 | -9 | +9 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 116 | 23 | 4 | 22 | 38 | 232 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 193 | 245 | 354 | 599 | 161 | 266 | 36 | 6 | 258 | 60 | -18 | +2 | -8 | -14 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 159 PAwOBA .307 → .239 (−68)K% 30.8% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×0.982 | 19.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.982 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×0.982 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .307 → .239; ISO .165 → .120; BABIP .299 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Dodgers · 44 PAwOBA .309 → .190 (−119)K% 29.5% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 14.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 7.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 2.82% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .190; ISO .154 → .093; BABIP .320 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 88 PAwOBA .359 → .280 (−80)K% 26.1% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.14% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 17.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 9.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 5.42% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .359 → .280; ISO .241 → .184; BABIP .327 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 433 PAwOBA .355 → .270 (−85)K% 28.6% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.64% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.55% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.11% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 16.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×1.003 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.68% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.71% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .355 → .270; ISO .265 → .194; BABIP .312 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 396 PAwOBA .316 → .242 (−75)K% 25.5% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.51% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.53% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×0.988 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.965 | ×0.988 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.965 | ×0.988 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.64% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .316 → .242; ISO .199 → .140; BABIP .278 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 65 PAwOBA .291 → .221 (−71)K% 23.1% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×1.018 | 8.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.018 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .291 → .221; ISO .224 → .157; BABIP .195 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAltoona Curve · 159 PAwOBA .359 → .289 (−71)K% 29.6% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.56% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.47% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 23.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷0.928 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.084 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .359 → .289; ISO .213 → .157; BABIP .375 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 146 PAwOBA .462 → .321 (−142)K% 26.7% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.71% | ÷0.999 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.64% | ÷1.063 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.961 | ×0.870 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 2.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.016 | ×0.978 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 19.54% | ÷1.273 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 13.21% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .462 → .321; ISO .460 → .308; BABIP .278 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).