Gabriel Cancel — OGILVIE

Gabriel Cancel2B Puerto Rico

Age 29 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs INTL Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .261 / .326

PA170

HR5

K%29

BB%8

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	150	138	20	3	3	1	6	63	3	6	1	145	197	232	429	87	257	42	4	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	150	134	28	5	4	2	10	44	3	6	1	209	279	351	630	142	295	29	7	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	189	177	39	13	1	4	10	45	0	1	2	220	262	373	635	153	271	24	5	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	189	172	50	18	1	5	15	32	0	1	2	291	348	494	842	203	331	17	8	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	2 teams	—	455	432	102	25	1	10	13	142	6	9	8	236	268	368	636	132	326	31	3	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	2 teams	—	455	421	117	31	2	14	24	102	6	9	8	278	326	461	787	183	336	22	5	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	2 teams	—	540	503	113	26	1	14	19	135	7	7	4	225	263	364	627	139	272	25	4	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	2 teams	—	540	485	122	32	1	9	37	97	7	7	4	252	314	377	691	126	290	18	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	2 teams	—	601	559	99	26	0	21	26	236	11	15	2	177	228	336	565	159	254	39	4	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	2 teams	—	601	542	127	30	0	19	43	171	11	15	2	234	304	395	699	161	303	28	7	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	3 teams	—	330	310	54	13	1	14	18	131	0	14	3	174	220	358	578	184	240	40	5	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	3 teams	—	330	293	66	15	1	16	35	105	0	14	3	225	308	447	755	222	287	32	11	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	438	403	66	15	0	6	27	185	6	8	2	164	227	246	473	82	280	42	6	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	438	392	78	20	1	7	38	144	6	8	2	199	280	309	588	110	292	33	9	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	153	131	27	2	0	1	13	31	6	3	1	206	307	244	551	38	260	20	8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	153	131	27	2	0	1	13	31	6	3	1	206	307	244	551	38	260	20	8	260	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	INTL	2 teams	—	279	242	46	10	0	10	30	104	6	12	4	190	295	355	650	165	279	37	11	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	INTL	2 teams	—	279	229	51	15	0	8	43	78	6	12	4	223	360	393	753	170	299	28	15	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	166	138	34	8	0	4	16	28	3	11	0	246	338	391	729	145	270	17	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	166	138	34	8	0	4	16	28	3	11	0	246	338	391	729	145	270	17	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	TOR	—	170	153	31	6	1	5	13	49	2	4	1	203	274	353	627	150	249	29	8	266	62	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	TOR	22%	243	220	43	8	1	6	19	69	2	5	1	195	266	323	588	127	252	28	8	269	64	-10	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.4
2027	30	MLB	TOR	22%	52	48	9	2	0	1	4	15	0	1	0	188	250	292	542	104	253	29	8	263	60	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	52	48	9	2	0	1	4	15	0	1	0	188	250	292	542	104	250	29	8	263	60	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	112	25	0	12	50	188	0	12	0	187	249	288	538	102	250	29	8	263	60	-30	+2	-6	+2	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	3714	3406	674	155	9	96	210	1218	52	95	29	198	255	333	588	135	272	33	6	233	36	-268	+7	-2	+13	+105	-14.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	118	27	2	17	37	213	9	17	5	198	255	336	591	138	272	33	6	233	36	-47	+1	-0	+2	+18	-2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	150	134	28	5	4	2	10	44	3	6	1	209	279	351	630	142	295	29	7	277	70	-5	+1	—	—	+4	0.0
2016	19	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	189	172	50	18	1	5	15	32	0	1	2	291	348	494	842	203	331	17	8	366	138	+8	-1	—	—	+5	1.3
2017	20	A	Lexington Legends	—	433	401	111	30	2	14	23	99	6	9	8	277	326	466	792	190	334	23	5	347	124	+12	-1	—	—	+12	2.3
2017	20	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	22	20	6	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	300	333	350	683	50	353	14	5	296	85	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2018	21	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	507	455	118	31	1	8	35	91	7	7	4	259	322	385	707	125	301	18	7	312	97	-2	-0	—	—	+14	1.3
2018	21	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	33	30	4	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	133	188	267	454	133	125	18	6	199	11	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2019	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	513	464	114	30	0	18	34	144	10	15	2	246	311	427	738	181	313	28	7	325	107	+4	+2	—	—	+15	2.1
2019	22	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	88	78	13	0	0	1	9	27	1	0	0	167	261	205	466	38	240	31	10	227	32	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	227	206	49	12	1	14	20	68	0	12	2	238	305	510	815	272	280	30	9	353	128	+7	+2	—	—	+6	1.6
2021	24	ROK	ACL Royals Blue	—	18	18	6	1	0	0	0	9	0	2	0	333	333	389	722	56	667	50	0	323	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	24	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	85	69	11	2	0	2	15	28	0	0	1	159	310	275	585	116	225	33	18	277	70	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	302	267	59	15	0	5	28	97	5	6	2	221	307	333	640	112	323	32	9	292	82	-6	+0	—	—	+9	0.3
2022	25	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	136	125	19	5	1	2	10	47	1	2	0	152	221	256	477	104	224	35	7	220	26	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2023	26	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	153	131	27	2	0	1	13	31	6	3	1	206	307	244	551	38	260	20	8	260	58	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2024	27	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	138	114	26	6	0	6	23	43	1	3	1	228	362	439	801	211	308	31	17	360	133	+5	+0	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	27	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	141	115	25	9	0	2	20	35	5	9	3	217	357	348	705	130	291	25	14	326	108	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2025	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	166	138	34	8	0	4	16	28	3	11	0	246	338	391	729	145	270	17	10	312	97	-1	+2	—	—	+5	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	222	6	5	196	262	331	+1	+1	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	18	14	196	262	331	+2.4	+3.0	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Cancel (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	193/261/326	134	249	5	4	29%	8%	62	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Hedges 2023 · MLB	30	33→40	46→60	48→45	45	180/244/293	113	213	16	5	25%	7%	45	-2.1	182/245/274	92	230	11	6	25%	7%	41	-2.3	190/259/290	100	237	13	5	25%	7%	49	-0.5
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	38→37	50	51→50	36	205/243/354	149	265	18	13	31%	4%	60	-1.0	223/281/343	120	285	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	228/298/319	92	290	8	6	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	50	52→50	41	196/252/349	153	257	19	10	32%	7%	63	-0.8	201/258/315	114	276	11	9	30%	7%	56	-1.3	190/247/283	93	269	7	7	30%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	47→50	49→45	40	202/251/335	133	253	16	9	27%	5%	59	-1.1	204/249/337	133	259	14	9	26%	5%	58	-1.2	184/221/327	143	224	14	6	25%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→41	49→50	46→50	41	187/265/334	147	282	18	7	38%	8%	66	-0.6	188/258/303	115	312	13	8	41%	8%	54	-1.4	165/233/253	88	291	10	8	44%	7%	27	-1.3
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Clint Sammons 2012 · AAA	29	34→44	45→40	44→45	42	182/239/296	114	224	14	8	26%	6%	44	-2.1	203/247/342	139	274	18	8	32%	5%	59	-1.1	156/183/282	126	198	20	0	34%	2%	14	-1.0
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Yamid Haad 2007 · MLB	29	40	46→45	46→40	41	206/246/335	129	239	14	6	21%	4%	56	-1.3	213/254/314	101	270	11	6	25%	5%	54	-1.4	220/260/315	95	282	9	1	25%	5%	55	-0.5
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	50	48→45	42	207/264/358	151	266	19	10	30%	7%	70	-0.3	224/280/372	148	286	19	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Brett Carroll 2012 · MLB	29	42→45	49→55	49→50	44	216/283/361	146	264	17	11	25%	6%	80	+0.4	208/273/348	140	279	17	10	30%	7%	72	-0.2	195/266/336	142	262	18	10	32%	8%	62	-0.5
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	38	48→45	50→45	38	200/242/340	140	254	16	10	29%	4%	56	-1.3	209/250/351	142	266	18	6	29%	4%	63	-0.9	191/229/327	136	233	21	0	29%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Jeff Mathis 2012 · MLB	29	38→46	42→50	43→45	41	192/242/290	98	250	9	6	27%	6%	43	-2.2	205/257/330	125	274	14	4	29%	6%	59	-1.1	211/261/316	106	287	8	1	28%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Kyle Higashioka 2019 · MLB	29	37→43	48→60	47→40	44	197/250/337	139	229	17	5	23%	6%	59	-1.1	211/258/398	187	246	26	4	26%	5%	79	+0.3	229/285/425	196	263	28	4	25%	7%	95	+0.6
✕John Ryan Murphy 2019 · MLB	28	39→46	45→50	46→40	42	201/249/316	115	250	14	3	26%	6%	53	-1.5	206/256/368	162	283	22	5	34%	6%	70	-0.3	177/226/383	205	213	32	0	36%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA	29	37	45	47→40	39	194/245/315	121	274	14	4	34%	6%	51	-1.7	195/251/321	126	280	15	5	34%	7%	55	-1.4	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	196/259/308	112	257	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	213/261/333	120	273	13	5	26%	6%	62	-0.9	210/254/324	114	266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕René Rivera 2012 · MLB	29	43→32	46→55	46→30	40	218/260/349	131	272	14	3	26%	5%	66	-0.6	233/282/367	134	284	14	3	23%	6%	79	+0.3	242/294/386	143	293	15	0	22%	6%	85	+0.4
✕Eli Whiteside 2010 · MLB	30	41	45→50	46→40	38	210/249/332	122	270	13	5	28%	4%	56	-1.3	214/268/339	125	277	13	6	27%	6%	67	-0.5	200/260/308	108	259	10	3	26%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	179/241/285	105	253	11	13	33%	7%	42	-2.3	189/249/278	89	270	8	15	31%	7%	43	-2.2	160/223/224	65	230	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0