Gabriel Cancel
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 279 | .223/.360/.393 | 8 | 12 | 86 | — | .172/.268/.311 |
| 2025 | 28 | INTLPuerto Rico | 166 | .246/.338/.391 | 4 | 11 | 98 | — | |
| 2026 | 29 | INTLVenados de Ma… | 34 | .226/.294/.452 | 2 | 0 | 110 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 150 | 134 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 279 | 351 | 630 | 142 | 295 | 29 | 7 | 277 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 189 | 172 | 50 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 291 | 348 | 494 | 842 | 203 | 331 | 17 | 8 | 366 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 433 | 401 | 111 | 30 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 99 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 277 | 326 | 466 | 792 | 190 | 334 | 23 | 5 | 347 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 22 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 50 | 353 | 14 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 507 | 455 | 118 | 31 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 91 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 259 | 322 | 385 | 707 | 125 | 301 | 18 | 7 | 312 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 33 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 267 | 454 | 133 | 125 | 18 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 513 | 464 | 114 | 30 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 144 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 246 | 311 | 427 | 738 | 181 | 313 | 28 | 7 | 325 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 88 | 78 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 261 | 205 | 466 | 38 | 240 | 31 | 10 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 227 | 206 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 68 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 238 | 305 | 510 | 815 | 272 | 280 | 30 | 9 | 353 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK | ACL Royals Blue | — | 18 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 389 | 722 | 56 | 667 | 50 | 0 | 323 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 85 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 159 | 310 | 275 | 585 | 116 | 225 | 33 | 18 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 302 | 267 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 97 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 112 | 323 | 32 | 9 | 292 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 136 | 125 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 221 | 256 | 477 | 104 | 224 | 35 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 153 | 131 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 307 | 244 | 551 | 38 | 260 | 20 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 138 | 114 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 362 | 439 | 801 | 211 | 308 | 31 | 17 | 360 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 141 | 115 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 35 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 217 | 357 | 348 | 705 | 130 | 291 | 25 | 14 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 166 | 138 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 246 | 338 | 391 | 729 | 145 | 270 | 17 | 10 | 312 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 452 | 746 | 226 | 278 | 32 | 3 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 150 | 138 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 63 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 145 | 197 | 232 | 429 | 87 | 241 | 42 | 4 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 189 | 177 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 262 | 373 | 635 | 153 | 268 | 24 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 433 | 411 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 134 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 231 | 265 | 370 | 635 | 139 | 310 | 31 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 507 | 470 | 105 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 128 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 223 | 266 | 338 | 604 | 115 | 270 | 25 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 513 | 474 | 89 | 23 | 0 | 15 | 24 | 183 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 188 | 242 | 331 | 573 | 143 | 258 | 36 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 227 | 212 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 179 | 230 | 363 | 593 | 184 | 237 | 37 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals Blue | — | 18 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 222 | 506 | 72 | 0 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 302 | 276 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 122 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 170 | 237 | 243 | 479 | 72 | 285 | 40 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 138 | 122 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 172 | 268 | 311 | 580 | 139 | 259 | 37 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 150 | 138 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 63 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 145 | 197 | 232 | 429 | 87 | 257 | 42 | 4 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 150 | 134 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 279 | 351 | 630 | 142 | 295 | 29 | 7 | 277 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 189 | 177 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 262 | 373 | 635 | 153 | 271 | 24 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | — | 189 | 172 | 50 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 291 | 348 | 494 | 842 | 203 | 331 | 17 | 8 | 366 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 431 | 101 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 141 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 234 | 268 | 378 | 646 | 144 | 320 | 31 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 421 | 117 | 31 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 102 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 278 | 326 | 461 | 787 | 183 | 336 | 22 | 5 | 344 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 501 | 111 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 136 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 222 | 263 | 337 | 600 | 116 | 277 | 25 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 540 | 485 | 122 | 32 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 97 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 252 | 314 | 377 | 691 | 126 | 290 | 18 | 7 | 305 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 557 | 105 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 28 | 214 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 189 | 242 | 334 | 576 | 145 | 264 | 36 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 601 | 542 | 127 | 30 | 0 | 19 | 43 | 171 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 234 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 161 | 303 | 28 | 7 | 311 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 310 | 56 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 129 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 181 | 226 | 358 | 584 | 177 | 253 | 39 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 330 | 293 | 66 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 35 | 105 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 308 | 447 | 755 | 222 | 287 | 32 | 11 | 331 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 402 | 69 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 177 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 172 | 236 | 249 | 485 | 77 | 288 | 40 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 438 | 392 | 78 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 144 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 199 | 280 | 309 | 588 | 110 | 292 | 33 | 9 | 269 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL MLE | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 153 | 131 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 307 | 244 | 551 | 38 | 260 | 20 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL RAW | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 153 | 131 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 307 | 244 | 551 | 38 | 260 | 20 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 241 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 104 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 178 | 288 | 320 | 607 | 141 | 269 | 37 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 279 | 229 | 51 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 78 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 223 | 360 | 393 | 753 | 170 | 299 | 28 | 15 | 343 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 166 | 138 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 246 | 338 | 391 | 729 | 145 | 270 | 17 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 166 | 138 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 246 | 338 | 391 | 729 | 145 | 270 | 17 | 10 | 312 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL MLE | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 452 | 746 | 226 | 278 | 32 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL RAW | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 34 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 294 | 452 | 746 | 226 | 278 | 32 | 3 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 150 | 140 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 63 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 143 | 197 | 229 | 426 | 86 | 241 | 42 | 4 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 189 | 177 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 262 | 373 | 635 | 153 | 268 | 24 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 432 | 101 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 141 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 234 | 268 | 377 | 646 | 144 | 310 | 31 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 507 | 111 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 136 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 219 | 263 | 333 | 596 | 114 | 270 | 25 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 557 | 105 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 28 | 214 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 189 | 242 | 334 | 576 | 145 | 258 | 36 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 330 | 309 | 56 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 129 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 181 | 226 | 359 | 585 | 178 | 257 | 39 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 401 | 69 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 177 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 172 | 236 | 249 | 486 | 77 | 285 | 40 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 240 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 104 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 179 | 288 | 321 | 609 | 142 | 259 | 37 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 279 | 240 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 104 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 179 | 288 | 321 | 609 | 142 | 259 | 37 | 11 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3335 | 3057 | 612 | 145 | 8 | 77 | 186 | 1079 | 50 | 86 | 27 | 200 | 258 | 328 | 586 | 128 | 277 | 32 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -247 | +6 | +0 | +12 | +72 | -16.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 119 | 28 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 210 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 200 | 257 | 329 | 586 | 129 | 276 | 32 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -48 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 138 PAwOBA .351 → .264 (−86)K% 31.2% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.16% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 11.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.45% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.45% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 5.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .351 → .264; ISO .211 → .152; BABIP .308 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 302 PAwOBA .285 → .221 (−64)K% 32.1% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.12% | ÷0.957 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.94% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.94% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×1.018 | 21.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.018 | 7.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .285 → .221; ISO .112 → .079; BABIP .323 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 227 PAwOBA .342 → .257 (−86)K% 30.0% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.96% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.37% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.94% | ÷1.056 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 14.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.936 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.14% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 7.14% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .342 → .257; ISO .272 → .192; BABIP .280 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Royals Blue · 18 PAwOBA .314 → .132 (−181)K% 50.0% → 72.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 72.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 55.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 43.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 7.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .132; ISO .056 → .021; BABIP .667 → .506. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 513 PAwOBA .319 → .251 (−68)K% 28.1% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.07% | ÷0.962 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.43% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.62% | ÷1.083 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.62% | ÷0.901 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.13% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 117, 2B 97, 3B 118, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .319 → .251; ISO .181 → .149; BABIP .313 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 507 PAwOBA .308 → .262 (−46)K% 17.9% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.010 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.51% | ÷1.077 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 3.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.021 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 19.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.52% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.27% | ÷0.965 | ×0.800 | ×0.988 | ×1.012 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.20% | ÷0.773 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 93, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .308 → .262; ISO .125 → .119; BABIP .301 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALexington Legends · 433 PAwOBA .337 → .273 (−64)K% 22.9% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.86% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.85% | ÷1.053 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.52% | ÷0.936 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.015 | 21.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.93% | ÷0.982 | ×0.820 | ×0.988 | ×1.015 | 8.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.125 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×1.015 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.64% | ÷1.062 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 3.63% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 87, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .337 → .273; ISO .190 → .142; BABIP .334 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKBurlington Royals · 189 PAwOBA .358 → .268 (−89)K% 16.9% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.029 | ×0.995 | 15.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.029 | ×0.995 | 9.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.029 | ×0.995 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 2.84% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .358 → .268; ISO .203 → .151; BABIP .331 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .