Corey Ray
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA/ROK3 orgs | 292 | .218/.293/.363 | 8 | 6 | 25 | — | .155/.210/.254 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAAMIL | 157 | .274/.325/.500 | 6 | 2 | 71 | — | .208/.248/.356 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA/AAMIL | 313 | .219/.272/.420 | 13 | 10 | 37 | — | .170/.207/.316 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 254 | 231 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 54 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 247 | 310 | 385 | 695 | 139 | 299 | 21 | 8 | 309 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 16 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 83 | 312 | 83 | 396 | 125 | 25 | 19 | 233 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 503 | 449 | 107 | 29 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 156 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 238 | 313 | 367 | 681 | 129 | 346 | 31 | 10 | 304 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 86 | 78 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 231 | 302 | 321 | 623 | 90 | 293 | 22 | 9 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 600 | 532 | 127 | 32 | 7 | 27 | 60 | 176 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 239 | 324 | 477 | 801 | 239 | 303 | 29 | 10 | 351 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | San Antonio Missions | — | 230 | 207 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 188 | 263 | 329 | 592 | 140 | 283 | 39 | 9 | 266 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 46 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 250 | 348 | 325 | 673 | 75 | 385 | 30 | 13 | 312 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | ROK | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 16 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 533 | 562 | 933 | 1.496 | 400 | 636 | 19 | 6 | 641 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 157 | 146 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 274 | 325 | 500 | 825 | 226 | 358 | 29 | 6 | 360 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 143 | 136 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 199 | 232 | 390 | 622 | 191 | 262 | 34 | 4 | 270 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 170 | 152 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 237 | 305 | 447 | 753 | 211 | 292 | 30 | 8 | 327 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 254 | 237 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 211 | 258 | 329 | 587 | 118 | 281 | 30 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 16 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 77 | 250 | 77 | 327 | 112 | 31 | 12 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 503 | 468 | 82 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 224 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 175 | 225 | 269 | 494 | 94 | 306 | 45 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 600 | 552 | 106 | 29 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 230 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 192 | 255 | 364 | 620 | 172 | 287 | 38 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 230 | 214 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 117 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 131 | 184 | 224 | 409 | 93 | 239 | 51 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 46 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 190 | 261 | 238 | 499 | 48 | 347 | 39 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers Gold | — | 16 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 438 | 733 | 1.171 | 333 | 456 | 25 | 6 | 415 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 157 | 149 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 248 | 356 | 604 | 148 | 303 | 34 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 143 | 138 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 152 | 176 | 283 | 459 | 130 | 219 | 41 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 170 | 157 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 185 | 234 | 344 | 577 | 159 | 246 | 38 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 250 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 81 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 204 | 257 | 316 | 573 | 112 | 281 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 270 | 243 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 58 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 239 | 310 | 370 | 680 | 132 | 291 | 21 | 9 | 305 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 589 | 549 | 95 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 262 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 173 | 223 | 264 | 487 | 91 | 311 | 44 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 589 | 527 | 125 | 33 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 175 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 237 | 312 | 361 | 672 | 123 | 337 | 30 | 10 | 302 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 600 | 552 | 106 | 29 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 230 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 192 | 255 | 364 | 620 | 172 | 289 | 38 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 600 | 532 | 127 | 32 | 7 | 27 | 60 | 176 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 239 | 324 | 477 | 801 | 239 | 303 | 29 | 10 | 351 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 271 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 139 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 155 | 210 | 255 | 465 | 100 | 281 | 48 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 292 | 262 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 106 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 218 | 293 | 363 | 656 | 145 | 327 | 36 | 9 | 294 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 157 | 149 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 248 | 356 | 604 | 148 | 293 | 34 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 157 | 146 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 274 | 325 | 500 | 825 | 226 | 358 | 29 | 6 | 360 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 295 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 123 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 169 | 207 | 315 | 522 | 146 | 246 | 39 | 4 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 313 | 288 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 99 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 272 | 420 | 692 | 201 | 278 | 32 | 6 | 301 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 250 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 81 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 204 | 257 | 316 | 573 | 112 | 271 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 589 | 549 | 95 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 262 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 173 | 223 | 264 | 487 | 91 | 306 | 44 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 600 | 548 | 106 | 29 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 230 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 193 | 255 | 367 | 622 | 173 | 287 | 38 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 292 | 271 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 139 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 155 | 210 | 255 | 465 | 100 | 268 | 48 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 157 | 148 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 248 | 358 | 607 | 149 | 303 | 34 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 296 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 123 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 169 | 207 | 314 | 521 | 145 | 234 | 39 | 4 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2221 | 2066 | 375 | 95 | 13 | 48 | 128 | 888 | 13 | 95 | 32 | 182 | 234 | 310 | 544 | 128 | 286 | 40 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -139 | +6 | -0 | +6 | +48 | -8.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 110 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 37 | 260 | 4 | 28 | 9 | 182 | 234 | 311 | 545 | 129 | 287 | 40 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -41 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AABiloxi Shuckers · 170 PAwOBA .323 → .247 (−76)K% 30.0% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷1.027 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 5.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.968 | 16.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×0.968 | 7.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.92% | ÷1.012 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 6.06% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 112, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .323 → .247; ISO .211 → .161; BABIP .292 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANashville Sounds · 143 PAwOBA .264 → .193 (−72)K% 33.6% → 41.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.57% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.20% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 2.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 12.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.23% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 8.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.68% | ÷0.946 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .264 → .193; ISO .191 → .133; BABIP .262 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANashville Sounds · 157 PAwOBA .350 → .273 (−77)K% 28.7% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.66% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.37% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.79% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 19.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.89% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.94% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.56% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .350 → .273; ISO .226 → .165; BABIP .358 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 230 PAwOBA .260 → .183 (−77)K% 38.7% → 51.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.70% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 50.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.055 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 18.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.930 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.93% | ÷0.977 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.89% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 86, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .260 → .183; ISO .140 → .094; BABIP .283 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 46 PAwOBA .305 → .242 (−63)K% 30.4% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 25.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 9.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .305 → .242; ISO .075 → .059; BABIP .385 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Brewers Gold · 16 PAwOBA .622 → .415 (−207)K% 18.8% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 3.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 25.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 17.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 6.14% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .622 → .415; ISO .400 → .262; BABIP .636 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 600 PAwOBA .340 → .271 (−69)K% 29.3% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.33% | ÷0.933 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷0.964 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.13% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 16.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.99% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 8.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .340 → .271; ISO .239 → .182; BABIP .303 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Carolina Mudcats · 503 PAwOBA .296 → .216 (−80)K% 31.0% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.01% | ÷0.990 | ×1.420 | — | — | 44.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.95% | ÷0.973 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.20% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.87% | ÷1.004 | ×0.940 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 21.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.90% | ÷1.034 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.944 | ×0.800 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.39% | ÷0.959 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .296 → .216; ISO .129 → .094; BABIP .346 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).