Jordan Nwogu

LF Knoxville Smokies
Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AA/A+/INTL3 orgs449.231/.307/.381112855—.182/.245/.286
202526AACHC368.280/.357/.34832368—.243/.308/.303
202627AAA/AACHC266.276/.378/.39141275—.234/.313/.327
2027PROJMLE28MLBCHC3.218/.285/.3000065-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB29MLBCHC41.217/.284/.2990165-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed73
K%53
Max EV50
Z-Con%50
BB%32
Chase%31
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsAndy Simunic (age 28) · Shannon Wilkerson (age 28) · Rafael Bautista (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .285 / .300
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%6
BABIP294
ISO92
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 373323 8012210 421056 164 248345390735 142335 2811 332 53 — — — — — —
202223 A+South Bend Cubs — 378325 8617715 379012 196 265361498859 234317 2410 374 84 — — — — — —
202324 AATennessee Smokies — 363324 637116 271379 157 194275370645 176272 387 288 30 — — — — — —
202425 AATennessee Smokies — 4541 7311 4120 40 171244366610 195214 279 270 29 — — — — — —
202425 A+South Bend Cubs — 323283 681516 31724 197 240324364688 124295 2210 308 47 — — — — — —
202425 INTLCanberra Cavalry — 8175 17504 4141 50 227275453728 227224 175 315 99 — — — — — —
202526 AAKnoxville Smokies — 368325 91923 269213 237 280357348705 68376 257 322 68 — — — — — —
202627 AAAIowa Cubs — 115102 29613 10260 31 284348451799 167342 239 346 76 — — — — — —
202627 AAKnoxville Smokies — 151123 33411 21276 90 268400341741 73333 1814 347 74 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 373336 63927 291486 164 188264289553 101302 408 247 53 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 378336 7013512 2611412 196 208289384673 176265 307 293 84 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 363334 516111 171669 157 153214275489 123238 465 212 30 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 4542 6211 3150 40 143200310510 167188 337 211 29 — — — — — —
202425 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 323293 551115 21914 197 188252283535 96240 287 237 47 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 368333 81913 1811313 237 243308303611 60342 315 269 68 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 115105 25512 7310 31 238286362648 124293 276 281 76 — — — — — —
202627 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 151130 30411 14336 90 231333300633 69285 229 277 74 — — — — — —
202122 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 373336 63927 291486 164 188264289553 101308 408 247 53 — — — — — —
202122 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 373323 8012210 421056 164 248345390735 142335 2811 332 53 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 378336 7013512 2611412 196 208289384673 176271 307 293 84 — — — — — —
202223 A+ RAWSouth Bend Cubs — 378325 8617715 379012 196 265361498859 234317 2410 374 84 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 363334 516111 171669 157 153214275489 123252 465 212 30 — — — — — —
202324 AA RAWTennessee Smokies — 363324 637116 271379 157 194275370645 176272 387 288 30 — — — — — —
202425 A+ MLE3 teams — 449409 741627 291295 287 181244281525 100240 296 234 44 — — — — — —
202425 A+ RAW3 teams — 449399 9223211 39985 287 231307381688 150274 229 306 44 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 368333 81913 1811313 237 243308303611 60353 315 269 68 — — — — — —
202526 AA RAWKnoxville Smokies — 368325 91923 269213 237 280357348705 68376 257 322 68 — — — — — —
202627 AA MLE2 teams — 266235 54823 21646 121 230309319628 89297 248 279 75 — — — — — —
202627 AA RAW2 teams — 266225 621024 31536 121 276378391769 116337 2012 346 75 — — — — — —
202122 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 373335 63927 291486 164 188264290554 101302 408 247 53 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 378337 7013512 2611412 196 208289383672 175265 307 293 84 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 363334 516111 171669 157 153214275489 123238 465 212 30 — — — — — —
202425 A+ MLE3 teams — 449412 741627 291295 287 180244279523 100234 296 234 44 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 368334 81913 1811313 237 243308302610 60342 315 269 68 — — — — — —
202627 AA MLE2 teams — 266237 54823 21646 121 228309316626 89288 248 279 75 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 A+ MLE3 teams — 449412 741627 291295 287 180244279523 100234 296 234 44 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 368334 81913 1811313 237 243308302610 60342 315 269 68 — — — — — —
202627 AA MLE2 teams — 266237 54823 21646 121 228309316626 89288 248 279 75 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLECHC 2% 316286 621023 20847 82 216283296579 80291 276 265 65 -13 +1 +0 -3 +7 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXCHC 2% 33 0000 010 00 218285300584 81294 330 267 65 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLECHC 23% 180162 36612 12484 41 215282295577 80289 277 264 65 -8 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.7
202829 MLB CTXCHC 23% 4137 7100 3111 10 217284299582 82292 277 266 65 -2 +0 -0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4137 7100 3111 10 189268216485 27269 277 266 59 -2 +0 -0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650587 1111600 4817416 160 189269216486 27269 277 266 59 -27 +3 -5 -7 +14 -2.2
Career— MLE — 25322286 460721547 16282358 12134 201271308579 106287 336 255 59 -14 +1 -1 -4 +7 -1.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 11818412 4221115 319 201272307579 106286 326 255 59 -27 +2 -3 -7 +14 -2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 151 PAwOBA .341 → .277 (−64)K% 17.9% → 21.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.88%÷1.000×1.220——21.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.91%÷1.000×0.680—×0.9789.25%
HBP% /PA3.97%—×0.840—×0.9783.26%
Singles /BIP28.12%÷1.000×0.920×0.954×0.97824.13%
Doubles /BIP4.17%÷1.000×0.910×0.954×0.9783.54%
Triples /BIP1.04%÷1.000×0.880×0.954×0.9780.85%
Home runs /BIP1.04%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9780.81%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .341 → .277; ISO .073 → .062; BABIP .333 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 115 PAwOBA .345 → .281 (−64)K% 22.6% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.61%÷1.000×1.200——27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0036.02%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×1.00322.15%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0036.24%
Triples /BIP1.32%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0031.22%
Home runs /BIP3.95%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0032.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .345 → .281; ISO .167 → .128; BABIP .342 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 368 PAwOBA .317 → .269 (−49)K% 25.0% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷0.994×1.220——30.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.07%÷0.988×0.680—×0.9884.80%
HBP% /PA3.53%—×0.840—×0.9882.93%
Singles /BIP33.05%÷0.996×0.920×0.993×0.98829.95%
Doubles /BIP3.86%÷0.910×0.910×0.993×0.9883.79%
Triples /BIP0.86%÷1.150×0.880×0.993×0.9880.64%
Home runs /BIP1.29%÷0.911×0.800—×0.9881.12%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .317 → .269; ISO .068 → .059; BABIP .376 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 323 PAwOBA .305 → .237 (−68)K% 22.3% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.29%÷1.005×1.270——28.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.60%÷1.021×0.710—×0.9786.53%
HBP% /PA1.24%—×0.790—×0.9780.96%
Singles /BIP21.80%÷1.009×0.920×0.950×0.97818.48%
Doubles /BIP7.11%÷1.034×0.810×0.950×0.9785.17%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷0.979×0.850×0.950×0.9780.38%
Home runs /BIP2.84%÷0.909×0.800—×0.9782.45%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .305 → .237; ISO .124 → .098; BABIP .295 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 45 PAwOBA .263 → .211 (−52)K% 26.7% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷0.975×1.220——33.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.89%÷0.959×0.680—×0.9986.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP6.90%÷1.015×0.920—×0.9986.24%
Doubles /BIP10.34%÷1.059×0.910—×0.9988.87%
Triples /BIP3.45%÷0.985×0.880—×0.9983.07%
Home runs /BIP3.45%÷0.854×0.800—×0.9983.22%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .263 → .211; ISO .195 → .164; BABIP .214 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 363 PAwOBA .282 → .212 (−70)K% 37.7% → 45.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA37.74%÷1.008×1.220——45.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.44%÷1.059×0.680—×1.0124.83%
HBP% /PA2.48%—×0.840—×1.0122.11%
Singles /BIP20.86%÷0.975×0.920×0.950×1.01218.92%
Doubles /BIP3.74%÷1.023×0.910×0.950×1.0123.20%
Triples /BIP0.53%÷0.966×0.880×0.950×1.0120.47%
Home runs /BIP8.56%÷1.082×0.800—×1.0126.40%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .282 → .212; ISO .176 → .124; BABIP .272 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 378 PAwOBA .368 → .293 (−76)K% 23.8% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.81%÷1.003×1.270——30.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.79%÷0.986×0.710—×0.9987.04%
HBP% /PA3.17%—×0.790—×0.9982.50%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.010×0.920×0.974×0.99817.71%
Doubles /BIP7.23%÷1.020×0.810×0.974×0.9985.59%
Triples /BIP2.98%÷1.097×0.850×0.974×0.9982.24%
Home runs /BIP6.38%÷0.938×0.800—×0.9985.44%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .368 → .293; ISO .234 → .185; BABIP .317 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 373 PAwOBA .324 → .247 (−77)K% 28.2% → 39.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.15%÷0.961×1.360——39.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.99%÷0.963×0.690——7.88%
HBP% /PA1.61%—×0.780——1.25%
Singles /BIP25.69%÷1.002×0.920×0.996—23.48%
Doubles /BIP5.50%÷0.923×0.830×0.996—4.93%
Triples /BIP0.92%÷0.977×0.910×0.996—0.85%
Home runs /BIP4.59%÷0.977×0.800——3.75%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .324 → .247; ISO .142 → .105; BABIP .335 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .