Shay Whitcomb — OGILVIE

Shay Whitcomb3B Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 202 lbs MLB HR -15%H -3% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION440 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP270

ISO186

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

905.2%

xAVG

100.216

POWER50

Barrel%

619.8

Avg EV

1886.7

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE45

Chase%

9015.5%

SPEED55

Sprint

5027.5

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%26%▲▲21% over 61 PA (30d) · proj 30%

BB%6%▼3% over 61 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.179·.158 over 57 AB (60d) · proj .186

HR/BB6.4%▼4.5% over 44 BBE (60d) · proj 7.1%

BABIP.275▼.190 over 42 BIP (60d) · proj .280

SLASH.233/.284/.411·proj .223/.284/.409

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	257	233	70	22	0	16	19	81	3	16	3	300	361	601	962	300	391	32	7	412	165	+20	+2	—	—	+6	2.8
2021	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	187	163	46	3	0	7	20	53	3	14	2	282	371	429	800	147	375	28	11	359	129	+6	+2	—	—	+4	1.3
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	461	101	22	2	19	36	165	6	20	2	219	284	399	683	180	293	33	7	302	91	-6	+3	—	—	+11	0.9
2023	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	392	362	81	7	0	23	24	122	5	12	5	224	281	434	715	210	266	31	6	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+8	0.9
2023	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	197	176	48	12	0	12	18	56	1	8	2	273	344	545	889	273	327	28	9	383	145	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	46	41	9	3	0	0	5	8	0	0	0	220	304	293	597	73	273	17	11	278	74	-1	+0	-4	+2	+1	-0.3
2024	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	481	413	121	19	2	25	53	95	8	26	8	293	384	530	914	237	320	20	11	396	154	+31	+2	—	—	+10	4.4
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	32	32	4	0	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	125	125	219	344	94	143	31	0	150	-12	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.2
2025	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	469	405	108	23	0	25	52	120	9	16	2	267	363	509	871	242	316	26	11	381	144	+25	+2	—	—	+10	3.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	78	73	13	3	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	178	231	260	491	82	222	23	6	225	39	-6	+0	-4	+4	+2	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	257	239	50	14	0	10	13	110	3	16	3	209	259	393	652	184	324	43	5	281	76	-7	+2	—	—	+6	0.0
2021	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	187	169	36	2	0	4	14	72	3	14	2	213	285	296	581	83	334	39	7	261	63	-8	+2	—	—	+4	-0.2
2022	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	475	80	17	2	13	22	213	6	20	2	168	215	295	509	126	262	42	4	222	36	-38	+3	—	—	+11	-2.5
2023	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	392	371	66	6	0	18	15	157	5	12	5	178	220	340	560	162	239	40	4	241	49	-24	+0	—	—	+8	-1.5
2023	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	197	182	38	10	0	7	12	65	1	8	2	209	262	379	641	170	272	33	6	277	74	-6	+1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	46	41	9	3	0	0	5	8	0	0	0	220	304	293	597	73	273	17	11	272	70	-2	+0	-4	+2	+1	-0.3
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	481	430	103	16	2	21	36	122	8	26	8	240	310	433	743	193	270	25	7	321	103	+2	+2	—	—	+10	1.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	32	32	4	0	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	125	125	219	344	94	143	31	0	150	-13	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.2
2025	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	469	423	87	19	0	19	34	156	9	16	2	206	279	385	664	180	269	33	7	292	84	-9	+2	—	—	+10	0.4
2021	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	444	408	85	16	0	14	27	182	6	30	5	208	268	350	618	142	330	41	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	444	396	116	25	0	23	39	134	6	30	5	293	365	530	895	237	384	30	9	390	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	475	80	17	2	13	22	213	6	20	2	168	215	295	509	126	266	42	4	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	461	101	22	2	19	36	165	6	20	2	219	284	399	683	180	293	33	7	302	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	589	553	104	16	0	25	27	222	6	20	7	188	234	353	586	165	256	38	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	589	538	129	19	0	35	42	178	6	20	7	240	302	470	772	230	287	30	7	338	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	471	112	19	2	21	41	130	8	26	8	238	310	420	730	183	278	25	8	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	527	454	130	22	2	25	58	103	8	26	8	286	377	509	886	222	315	20	11	385	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	501	455	91	19	0	20	34	166	9	16	2	200	269	374	643	174	261	33	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	501	437	112	23	0	26	52	130	9	16	2	256	347	487	835	231	303	26	10	366	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	444	408	85	16	0	14	27	182	6	30	5	208	268	350	618	142	328	41	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	473	80	17	2	13	22	213	6	20	2	169	215	296	511	127	262	42	4	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	589	551	104	16	0	25	27	222	6	20	7	189	234	354	588	165	250	38	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	473	112	19	2	21	41	130	8	26	8	237	310	419	728	182	270	25	8	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	501	453	91	19	0	20	34	166	9	16	2	201	269	375	644	174	261	33	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	589	551	104	16	0	25	27	222	6	20	7	189	234	354	588	165	250	38	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	527	473	112	19	2	21	41	130	8	26	8	237	310	419	728	182	270	25	8	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	501	453	91	19	0	20	34	166	9	16	2	201	269	375	644	174	261	33	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	SF	—	440	408	84	13	1	12	24	138	2	23	3	206	253	331	584	125	275	31	5	253	57	-22	+3	-1	+2	+10	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SF	—	85	80	13	3	0	4	3	24	0	0	1	163	193	350	543	187	173	28	4	232	57	-4	-0	-1	+2	+2	-0.2
YTD	27	AAA RAW	SF	—	355	319	87	13	1	10	30	88	2	23	2	273	339	414	753	141	342	25	8	334	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	MLB RAW	SF	—	85	80	13	3	0	4	3	24	0	0	1	163	193	350	543	187	173	28	4	232	43	-6	-0	-1	+0	+2	-0.5
ROS	27	AAA MLE	SF	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		276	33	11	284	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SF	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		270	33	11	269	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SF	—	94	88	14	3	0	4	4	27	0	0	1	159	196	330	525	170	175	29	4	235	58	-5	-0	-1	+0	+2	-0.4
TOT	27	AAA MLE	SF	—	449	416	85	13	1	12	25	141	2	23	3	204	253	327	580	123	273	31	6	253	58	-23	+3	-1	+2	+10	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	82%	392	360	79	13	1	14	25	118	4	15	3	219	278	378	655	158	277	30	6	286	80	-9	+2	-4	+1	+8	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	82%	321	294	62	10	1	10	21	97	3	12	2	211	270	354	624	143	271	30	7	271	80	-8	+2	-4	+1	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	408	375	76	13	1	11	27	118	3	12	2	203	262	331	592	128	262	29	7	262	70	-14	+2	-8	+5	+9	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	122	21	2	18	43	188	5	19	3	204	264	337	600	132	264	29	7	262	70	-22	+3	-12	+8	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	2968	2730	552	100	5	107	177	1034	39	127	27	202	261	360	621	158	276	35	6	271	70	-15	+2	-9	+5	+10	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	120	22	1	23	39	226	9	28	6	201	260	356	617	156	274	35	6	271	70	-21	+2	-12	+7	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.0	686	28	22	213	267	384	-2	-4	-0.0	0.0
/162	664	27	21	-2.1	-4.3	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shay Whitcomb (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	55	45	213/267/368	155	276	10	12	31%	6%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aristides Aquino 2021 · MLB	27	40→41	61→60	50	41	227/284/442	215	270	32	11	30%	6%	101	+1.4	213/288/399	186	296	24	8	35%	9%	93	+0.8	193/274/373	180	272	23	6	37%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	40→39	56→60	53→50	36	220/259/409	189	280	25	17	32%	4%	84	+0.1	222/285/364	142	319	16	10	33%	7%	83	+0.1	226/303/342	116	338	11	5	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Jake Marisnick 2018 · MLB	27	44→54	54→60	50→55	41	228/288/406	178	297	22	21	31%	6%	94	+0.9	236/295/429	193	313	23	16	31%	6%	102	+1.5	224/285/405	182	303	21	16	32%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	57→60	48→50	44	213/292/411	199	277	26	9	32%	8%	97	+1.1	210/311/398	188	307	24	7	36%	11%	101	+1.4	198/312/392	194	297	25	6	38%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Corey Julks 2023 · AAA	27	43→51	53→50	53→55	42	227/284/397	170	284	22	18	28%	6%	91	+0.6	230/292/365	135	293	14	20	25%	8%	86	+0.3	232/295/349	117	296	11	21	24%	8%	80	-0.1
●Adolis García 2022 · MLB	29	43→49	57→60	49→50	37	230/275/424	194	298	26	14	33%	5%	94	+0.9	239/299/441	202	298	26	15	28%	7%	107	+1.8	233/299/433	201	285	26	14	28%	8%	102	+1.5
✕Casper Wells 2011 · MLB	26	41→44	54→60	45→50	42	216/281/398	182	274	21	10	29%	7%	90	+0.6	224/296/400	176	286	19	8	28%	8%	95	+1.0	219/298/391	173	277	19	6	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	41→43	54→55	51→55	46	222/286/395	174	270	23	14	27%	8%	91	+0.7	210/275/355	145	288	18	22	32%	8%	78	-0.3	207/286/372	166	264	22	25	30%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	44	54→55	52→50	50	228/313/419	191	297	21	13	30%	10%	106	+1.8	217/307/382	165	302	18	15	32%	10%	96	+1.0	189/286/327	139	279	15	16	35%	11%	73	-0.3
✕Michael Hermosillo 2022 · MLB	27	45→47	54→50	50→55	43	228/319/412	184	313	22	15	32%	8%	107	+1.9	213/295/368	155	283	18	15	30%	7%	89	+0.5	170/235/313	142	199	23	17	28%	4%	52	-0.8
✕Austin Hedges 2020 · MLB	27	39→40	53→60	49→45	43	212/273/379	167	267	22	5	30%	7%	82	+0.0	190/253/326	136	234	19	5	28%	7%	63	-1.4	190/263/292	101	234	13	4	24%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Sam Hilliard 2022 · MLB	28	35→45	57→55	55	41	197/263/394	197	267	26	15	36%	8%	82	+0.0	212/287/384	172	293	21	16	33%	9%	88	+0.5	203/279/378	175	281	20	18	34%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	51→50	50→55	42	224/300/386	162	299	19	13	30%	7%	95	+0.9	224/302/369	145	295	15	20	28%	8%	91	+0.6	218/314/364	146	281	15	27	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Mike Wilson 2011 · AAA	28	40→50	54→55	50	45	215/292/386	171	275	23	12	30%	8%	91	+0.7	231/299/387	156	309	19	8	30%	8%	94	+0.9	230/297/379	149	312	17	4	30%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Dane Myers 2023 · AAA	27	44→54	52→50	52→55	35	228/272/390	162	310	21	16	33%	4%	84	+0.2	249/308/382	133	327	15	20	27%	6%	95	+1.0	256/320/373	117	332	13	23	25%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Daulton Varsho 2023 · MLB	27	43→49	59→60	51→50	48	236/304/444	207	268	27	14	24%	8%	109	+2.0	224/291/420	196	264	24	13	25%	8%	98	+1.2	216/283/416	201	252	25	12	26%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	55	50→55	45	246/305/426	180	286	24	11	23%	6%	105	+1.7	240/290/393	153	288	17	11	23%	5%	91	+0.7	234/280/375	141	280	14	11	22%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	43→44	59→60	53→50	41	229/294/437	208	303	28	6	34%	7%	103	+1.6	206/279/374	168	318	22	12	40%	8%	84	+0.1	192/267/353	160	306	21	13	42%	8%	71	-0.7
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	55	52→50	42	225/287/412	187	306	23	12	34%	8%	95	+1.0	218/281/379	161	300	18	11	32%	7%	85	+0.2	200/265/356	156	273	16	8	32%	8%	71	-0.7
✕Jayson Nix 2010 · MLB	27	45→49	51→55	51→55	48	234/300/397	163	275	19	19	23%	8%	97	+1.1	219/284/377	158	267	19	11	25%	7%	86	+0.3	207/270/357	150	257	17	9	26%	6%	73	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps