Shay Whitcomb — OGILVIE

Shay WhitcombLF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 202 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION256 act + 170 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .273 / .385

PA170

HR7

SB8

K%34

BB%6

BABIP284

ISO173

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

768.3%

xwOBA

230.277

POWER50

Barrel%

498.1

Avg EV

3387.9

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE45

Chase%

8524.8%

SPEED55

Sprint

6328.0

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.3M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	2 teams	—	444	408	84	15	0	13	27	183	6	30	5	206	265	338	604	132	330	41	6	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	2 teams	—	444	396	116	25	0	23	39	134	6	30	5	293	365	530	895	237	384	30	9	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	477	73	16	1	13	20	238	6	20	2	153	197	273	469	119	262	47	4	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	461	101	22	2	19	36	165	6	20	2	219	284	399	683	180	293	33	7	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	589	554	107	17	0	27	26	223	6	20	7	193	237	370	607	177	261	38	4	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	589	538	129	19	0	35	42	178	6	20	7	240	302	470	772	230	287	30	7	338	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	527	471	113	19	2	24	41	129	8	26	8	240	312	442	753	202	274	24	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	527	454	130	22	2	25	58	103	8	26	8	286	377	509	886	222	315	20	11	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	501	457	95	22	0	21	32	167	9	16	2	208	273	394	667	186	272	33	6	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	501	437	112	23	0	26	52	130	9	16	2	256	347	487	835	231	303	26	10	366	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	HOU	—	256	237	44	7	0	7	17	100	1	18	1	186	243	304	547	118	282	39	7	241	42	-17	+3	-1	+1	+7	-0.6
YTD	27	AAA	HOU	—	256	231	56	10	0	9	23	80	1	18	1	242	314	403	716	160	329	31	9	320	103	+1	+3	-1	+1	+7	1.2
ROS	27	AAA	HOU	55%	170	155	33	6	0	7	11	58	2	8	1	212	273	385	658	173	282	34	6	291	81	-4	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	55%	94	87	18	3	0	4	6	32	1	5	1	207	266	379	645	172	285	34	6	287	78	-2	+1	-1	+0	+3	0.1
FULL	27	AAA	HOU	—	350	324	62	10	0	11	23	132	2	23	2	191	249	324	573	133	280	38	7	253	52	-19	+4	-1	+1	+10	-0.6
TOT	27	AAA	HOU	—	426	392	77	13	0	14	28	158	3	26	2	196	255	336	591	140	283	37	7	261	58	-20	+4	-2	+2	+12	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	HOU	61%	554	505	108	19	1	22	38	183	6	23	3	214	277	386	663	172	283	33	7	293	82	-11	+3	-5	+2	+16	0.6
2028	29	MLB	HOU	62%	543	494	107	19	1	21	38	176	6	21	3	217	281	387	667	170	283	32	7	293	83	-11	+3	-5	+2	+15	0.5
2027	28	MLB	HOU	61%	339	310	68	12	1	14	23	112	3	14	2	219	280	400	680	181	286	33	7	290	80	-8	+2	-3	+1	+10	0.2
2028	29	MLB	HOU	62%	339	309	67	12	1	13	24	110	3	13	2	217	280	388	668	172	286	32	7	290	80	-8	+2	-3	+1	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	850	779	166	30	2	32	58	272	7	32	5	213	274	380	654	167	280	32	7	283	75	-24	+4	-11	+6	+24	0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	127	23	2	24	44	208	5	24	4	213	273	379	652	166	281	32	7	283	75	-18	+3	-8	+5	+18	0.0
Career	—			—	3834	3521	720	133	5	148	233	1357	49	164	31	204	263	371	635	167	280	35	6	277	71	-128	+20	-15	+14	+109	0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	123	23	1	25	39	230	8	28	5	206	264	374	637	168	283	35	6	277	71	-22	+4	-3	+2	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	257	233	70	22	0	16	19	81	3	16	3	300	361	601	962	300	391	32	7	412	174	+21	+2	—	—	+7	3.1
2021	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	187	163	46	3	0	7	20	53	3	14	2	282	371	429	800	147	375	28	11	359	133	+7	+2	—	—	+5	1.5
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	506	461	101	22	2	19	36	165	6	20	2	219	284	399	683	180	293	33	7	302	90	-6	+3	—	—	+14	1.2
2023	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	392	362	81	7	0	23	24	122	5	12	5	224	281	434	715	210	266	31	6	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+11	1.1
2023	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	197	176	48	12	0	12	18	56	1	8	2	273	344	545	889	273	327	28	9	383	151	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	46	41	9	3	0	0	5	8	0	0	0	220	304	293	597	73	273	17	11	278	71	-2	+0	-4	+2	+1	-0.2
2024	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	481	413	121	19	2	25	53	95	8	26	8	293	384	530	914	237	320	20	11	396	161	+33	+2	—	—	+14	5.0
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	32	32	4	0	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	125	125	219	344	94	143	31	0	150	-27	-5	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.2
2025	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	469	405	108	23	0	25	52	120	9	16	2	267	363	509	871	242	316	26	11	381	150	+26	+2	—	—	+13	4.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	78	73	13	3	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	178	231	260	491	82	222	23	6	225	31	-6	+0	-4	+4	+2	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	816	33	32	217	277	394	-7	-3	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	27	26	217	277	394	-5.5	-2.4	0.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shay Whitcomb (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	55	45	196/255/336	140	283	14	26	37%	7%	58	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	42→43	59→55	51→55	46	231/296/433	202	277	28	14	28%	8%	104	+2.0	215/280/381	166	290	22	22	32%	8%	83	+0.6	212/291/397	185	265	26	25	30%	9%	90	+0.7
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	38→37	56→55	53→50	35	214/252/400	187	277	25	17	33%	4%	77	+0.1	219/282/362	143	318	16	10	34%	7%	79	+0.3	222/301/341	118	337	12	5	34%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Corey Julks 2023 · AAA	27	43→51	55	53→55	42	229/287/409	180	290	23	18	30%	6%	94	+1.3	232/293/371	139	295	15	20	25%	8%	86	+0.8	233/296/352	119	297	11	21	24%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/292/419	206	279	27	9	33%	8%	98	+1.6	208/310/397	189	306	24	7	37%	11%	101	+1.8	194/309/387	193	292	25	6	39%	12%	95	+0.9
✕Jaylin Davis 2022 · MLB	28	42→45	58→50	48→45	41	226/294/425	199	301	26	10	34%	7%	102	+1.8	199/277/341	142	298	16	7	36%	8%	72	-0.2	180/265/309	130	272	15	4	37%	9%	57	-0.8
✕Justin Maxwell 2013 · MLB	29	43→44	58→60	52→60	45	225/302/428	203	308	26	19	35%	9%	105	+2.1	220/285/378	158	318	18	11	34%	7%	85	+0.7	209/274/345	136	307	15	8	35%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Michael Hermosillo 2022 · MLB	27	45→46	55	50→55	43	229/318/418	189	310	23	15	32%	8%	110	+2.4	216/295/383	167	282	20	15	30%	7%	91	+1.1	177/240/344	167	200	27	17	28%	4%	56	-0.5
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	44→42	58→60	52→50	42	230/293/433	203	313	26	12	34%	8%	102	+1.9	226/286/400	174	310	19	11	32%	7%	90	+1.0	213/276/388	175	290	18	8	32%	7%	79	+0.3
●Dane Myers 2023 · AAA	27	43→53	56→55	52→55	34	229/273/413	185	311	25	16	35%	4%	89	+1.0	250/307/394	144	327	17	20	28%	6%	98	+1.6	257/320/380	123	331	14	23	25%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Joe Mather 2009 · MLB	27	43→46	58→60	51→50	47	237/303/443	206	256	27	10	21%	7%	110	+2.4	216/274/356	140	262	15	11	23%	7%	74	-0.1	204/259/308	104	260	10	8	25%	7%	51	-0.7
✕Brad Eldred 2007 · MLB	27	41→40	65	46→45	38	233/284/477	244	292	34	8	33%	6%	111	+2.5	200/249/391	191	253	27	8	33%	4%	74	-0.1	203/256/418	215	253	31	9	34%	5%	80	+0.2
●Cory Aldridge 2006 · AAA	27	38→48	59→55	51→45	37	218/256/420	202	267	28	12	31%	5%	84	+0.6	220/273/359	139	307	14	9	31%	7%	74	-0.1	231/291/398	167	301	19	3	29%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Travis Demeritte 2022 · MLB	27	43→44	57→60	50	39	222/284/416	194	324	26	10	38%	7%	94	+1.3	211/267/356	145	321	17	12	37%	7%	71	-0.3	180/238/297	117	281	11	12	38%	7%	40	-1.0
✕Kent Matthes 2014 · AAA	27	40→49	55→65	50	37	218/259/408	190	276	23	13	31%	4%	82	+0.5	204/248/342	138	276	15	10	31%	5%	59	-1.1	188/232/321	133	254	14	8	32%	4%	45	-1.2
✕Dilson Herrera 2021 · MLB	27	39→49	55→50	47→50	41	213/274/394	181	276	23	11	32%	7%	85	+0.7	203/260/354	151	298	19	8	37%	6%	68	-0.5	146/205/283	138	208	20	0	41%	6%	25	-1.1
✕Johan Mieses 2022 · AAA	27	37→33	56→55	48→50	41	210/275/394	185	256	26	7	30%	6%	85	+0.7	229/303/422	193	298	25	11	31%	8%	104	+2.0	218/311/435	216	279	30	11	32%	10%	107	+0.8
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	56→55	50→55	44	247/306/434	187	286	25	11	24%	6%	108	+2.3	239/289/393	154	287	17	11	23%	5%	90	+1.0	233/279/375	142	278	15	11	22%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	40→41	52→55	57→55	45	217/276/382	165	258	21	26	26%	7%	82	+0.5	223/280/386	163	269	20	22	25%	6%	85	+0.7	215/273/387	171	253	20	20	23%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Bobby Dalbec 2022 · MLB	27	42	62→60	48→50	41	231/298/462	231	301	31	5	34%	7%	112	+2.6	217/287/410	193	310	27	11	37%	8%	95	+1.4	199/274/377	177	295	25	13	40%	8%	77	+0.1