Shay Whitcomb

3B Sacramento River Cats
Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 202 lbs AAA HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.599 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AAAHOU481.293/.384/.5302526109—.251/.321/.440
202425MLBHOU46.220/.304/.2930071-0.3
202526AAAHOU469.267/.363/.509251687—.217/.288/.394
202526MLBHOU32.125/.125/.21910-11-0.2
202627AAASF355.273/.339/.414102364—.226/.276/.326
202627MLBSF122.207/.233/.3364259-0.2
2027PROJ45% MLB28MLBSF70.219/.280/.37423880.1
2028PROJ48% MLB29MLBSF130.217/.277/.3684485-0.0
2029PROJ49% MLB30MLBSF134.213/.273/.3594382-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7  ·  Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.599First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%54
Speed46
Bat Spd45
Avg EV20
xwOBA19
Form.228/.277/.361 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .224/.282/.388
CompsCorey Julks (age 28) · Stuart Fairchild (age 28) · Weston Wilson (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†88
AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .280 / .374
PA70
HR2
K%27
BB%7
BABIP269
ISO125
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
150.223
POWER
Barrel%
548.7
Avg EV
2086.8
Bat Spd
4570.8
SPEED
Sprint
4627.3
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%25%▲▲23% over 79 PA (60d) · proj 27%
BB%6%▼4% over 79 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.133▼▼.067 over 75 AB (60d) · proj .164
HR/BB4.3%▼1.8% over 57 BBE (60d) · proj 5.6%
BABIP.276·.321 over 56 BIP (60d) · proj .273
SLASH.228/.277/.361▼proj .224/.282/.388
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2024
Service   0.599 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 A+Asheville Tourists — 257233 7022016 19813 163 300361601962 300391 327 412 76 — — — — — —
202122 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 187163 46307 20533 142 282371429800 147375 2811 359 61 — — — — — —
202223 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 506461 10122219 361656 202 219284399683 180293 337 302 37 — — — — — —
202324 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 392362 817023 241225 125 224281434715 210266 316 315 57 — — — — — —
202324 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 197176 4812012 18561 82 273344545889 273327 289 383 72 — — — — — —
202425 MLBHouston Astros — 4641 9300 580 00 220304293597 73273 1711 278 71 -2 +0 -4 +2 +1 -0.3
202425 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 481413 12119225 53958 268 293384530914 237320 2011 396 109 — — — — — —
202526 MLBHouston Astros — 3232 4001 0100 00 125125219344 94143 310 150 -11 -4 +0 +0 +2 +1 -0.2
202526 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 469405 10823025 521209 162 267363509871 242316 2611 381 87 — — — — — —
202627 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 122116 24304 4350 21 207233336570 129260 293 249 59 -6 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.2
202627 AAASacramento River Cats — 355319 8713110 30882 232 273339414753 141342 258 334 64 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 200189 37605 9530 21 196232307539 111244 264 240 48 -12 +0 -5 +5 +4 -0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 257239 5014010 131103 163 209259393652 184324 435 280 76 — — — — — —
202122 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 187169 35204 14723 142 207280290570 83330 397 259 61 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 506475 8017213 222136 202 168215295509 126259 424 223 37 — — — — — —
202324 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 392371 706017 151465 125 189230342572 154253 374 252 57 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 197182 371007 12651 82 203256374630 170265 336 275 72 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 4641 9300 580 00 220304293597 73273 1711 272 71 -2 +0 -4 +2 +1 -0.3
202425 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 481430 10817220 361148 268 251321440760 188283 247 329 109 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 3232 4001 0100 00 125125219344 94143 310 151 -11 -4 +0 +0 +2 +1 -0.2
202526 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 469424 9221018 331459 162 217288394681 177277 317 297 87 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 122116 24304 4350 21 207233336570 129260 293 256 59 -6 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.2
202627 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 355328 741017 211052 232 226276326603 101297 306 263 64 — — — — — —
202122 A+ MLE2 teams — 444408 8516014 271826 305 208268350618 142330 416 271 70 — — — — — —
202122 A+ RAW2 teams — 444396 11625023 391346 305 293365530895 237384 309 390 70 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 506475 8017213 222136 202 168215295509 126266 424 223 37 — — — — — —
202223 AA RAWCorpus Christi Hooks — 506461 10122219 361656 202 219284399683 180293 337 302 37 — — — — — —
202324 AAA MLE2 teams — 589553 10816025 272116 207 195241360600 165259 365 260 62 — — — — — —
202324 AAA RAW2 teams — 589538 12919035 421786 207 240302470772 230287 307 338 62 — — — — — —
202425 AAA MLE2 teams — 527471 11720220 411228 268 248319427746 178289 238 324 105 — — — — — —
202425 AAA RAW2 teams — 527454 13022225 581038 268 286377509886 222315 2011 385 105 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 501456 9621019 331559 162 211277382659 171270 317 288 81 — — — — — —
202526 AAA RAW2 teams — 501437 11223026 521309 162 256347487835 231303 2610 366 81 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLE2 teams — 477444 9813111 251402 253 221265329594 108293 295 261 63 — — — — — —
202627 AAA RAW2 teams — 477435 11116114 341232 253 255312393705 138321 267 312 63 — — — — — —
202122 A+ MLE2 teams — 444408 8516014 271826 305 208268350618 142327 416 271 70 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 506473 8017213 222136 202 169215296511 127259 424 223 37 — — — — — —
202324 AAA MLE2 teams — 589551 10816025 272116 207 196241361602 165257 365 260 62 — — — — — —
202425 AAA MLE2 teams — 527473 11720220 411228 268 247319425744 178282 238 324 105 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 501454 9621019 331559 162 211277383660 172268 317 288 81 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLE2 teams — 477447 9813111 251402 253 219265327592 107287 295 261 63 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AAA MLE2 teams — 527473 11720220 411228 268 247319425744 178282 238 324 105 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 501454 9621019 331559 162 211277383660 172268 317 288 81 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLE2 teams — 477447 9813111 251402 253 219265327592 107287 295 261 63 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLESF 45% 380348 7813114 251024 144 224285388673 164273 277 298 88 -5 +1 -2 +1 +8 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXSF 45% 7064 13202 5191 31 219280374654 155269 277 291 88 -1 +0 -0 +0 +2 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLESF 48% 272249 569110 18743 92 221282381663 160271 277 294 85 -5 +1 -3 +1 +6 0.0
202930 MLB MLESF 49% 272249 559110 18753 72 218278373650 155268 287 289 82 -6 +1 -4 +1 +6 -0.2
202829 MLB CTXSF 48% 130119 25404 9351 41 217277368645 151267 277 287 85 -2 +0 -1 +0 +3 -0.0
202930 MLB CTXSF 49% 134123 25404 9371 31 213273359632 146264 287 282 82 -3 +0 -2 +0 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 464431 8714013 271252 93 202252325577 123251 276 265 72 -18 +1 -8 +6 +10 -0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650604 12220018 381753 134 202253325578 123251 276 265 72 -25 +1 -11 +9 +14 -1.2
Career— MLE — 37433447 7261267128 221121445 15932 211267363630 152281 326 275 72 -25 +2 -12 +8 +19 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650599 12622122 382118 286 210267361628 150280 326 275 72 -18 +2 -9 +6 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 355 PAwOBA .329 → .263 (−66)K% 24.8% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.79%÷1.000×1.200——29.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.45%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9925.78%
HBP% /PA0.56%—×0.940—×0.9920.53%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.000×0.930×0.972×0.99224.47%
Doubles /BIP5.63%÷1.000×0.830×0.972×0.9924.51%
Triples /BIP0.43%÷1.000×0.970×0.972×0.9920.41%
Home runs /BIP4.33%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9923.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .329 → .263; ISO .141 → .102; BABIP .342 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 469 PAwOBA .373 → .297 (−76)K% 25.6% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.59%÷0.995×1.200——30.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.87%÷1.056×0.690—×1.0037.13%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.940—×1.0031.81%
Singles /BIP21.05%÷1.012×0.930×0.972×1.00318.86%
Doubles /BIP8.07%÷0.891×0.830×0.972×1.0037.33%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.972×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP8.77%÷0.961×0.700—×1.0036.41%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .373 → .297; ISO .242 → .185; BABIP .316 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 481 PAwOBA .390 → .329 (−61)K% 19.8% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.75%÷1.006×1.200——23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.81%÷1.022×0.690—×1.0187.43%
HBP% /PA1.66%—×0.940—×1.0181.59%
Singles /BIP23.58%÷1.035×0.930×0.984×1.01821.23%
Doubles /BIP5.97%÷0.953×0.830×0.984×1.0185.21%
Triples /BIP0.63%÷0.900×0.970×0.984×1.0180.68%
Home runs /BIP7.86%÷0.903×0.700—×1.0186.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .390 → .329; ISO .237 → .198; BABIP .320 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 392 PAwOBA .305 → .252 (−53)K% 31.1% → 37.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.12%÷1.000×1.200——37.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.61%÷1.028×0.690—×1.0333.89%
HBP% /PA1.28%—×0.940—×1.0331.24%
Singles /BIP21.25%÷0.981×0.930×0.994×1.03320.68%
Doubles /BIP2.92%÷0.882×0.830×0.994×1.0332.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.056×0.970×0.994×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP9.58%÷0.896×0.700—×1.0337.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .305 → .252; ISO .210 → .162; BABIP .266 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 197 PAwOBA .374 → .275 (−99)K% 28.4% → 33.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.43%÷1.049×1.220——33.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.63%÷1.011×0.700—×0.9985.96%
HBP% /PA0.51%—×0.870—×0.9980.44%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.018×0.920×0.950×0.99817.13%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷0.975×0.840×0.950×0.9988.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.058×0.940×0.950×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP10.00%÷1.322×0.800—×0.9986.04%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .374 → .275; ISO .273 → .178; BABIP .327 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 506 PAwOBA .294 → .223 (−72)K% 32.6% → 42.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.61%÷0.947×1.220——42.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.72%÷1.084×0.700—×1.0124.39%
HBP% /PA1.19%—×0.870—×1.0121.04%
Singles /BIP19.59%÷1.018×0.920×1.000×1.01217.92%
Doubles /BIP7.43%÷0.986×0.840×1.000×1.0126.40%
Triples /BIP0.68%÷1.044×0.940×1.000×1.0120.62%
Home runs /BIP6.42%÷1.040×0.800—×1.0125.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .294 → .223; ISO .180 → .131; BABIP .293 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Asheville Tourists · 257 PAwOBA .403 → .280 (−123)K% 31.5% → 42.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.52%÷0.995×1.350——42.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.39%÷1.044×0.710—×0.9985.02%
HBP% /PA1.17%—×0.810—×0.9980.94%
Singles /BIP21.05%÷0.983×0.910×1.004×0.99819.52%
Doubles /BIP14.47%÷1.111×0.830×1.004×0.99810.84%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.910×0.820×1.004×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP10.53%÷1.131×0.830—×0.9987.71%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 122, 3B 82, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .403 → .280; ISO .300 → .192; BABIP .391 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 187 PAwOBA .352 → .259 (−93)K% 28.3% → 38.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.34%÷0.997×1.360——38.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.70%÷0.985×0.690—×0.9907.41%
HBP% /PA1.60%—×0.780—×0.9901.24%
Singles /BIP32.73%÷0.987×0.920×0.989×0.99029.88%
Doubles /BIP2.73%÷1.066×0.830×0.989×0.9902.08%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.084×0.910×0.989×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP6.36%÷1.176×0.800—×0.9904.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 117, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .352 → .259; ISO .147 → .090; BABIP .375 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).