Shay Whitcomb — OGILVIE

Shay WhitcombLF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 202 lbs AAA H +4%HR -3% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.1 · 2027

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .286 / .417

PA250

HR12

SB12

K%31

BB%7

MLB%45%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

50→50

SPD

55→55

FLD

45→45

EYE

47↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.6M
2029	Arb-4	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$16M	+$7M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	2 teams	444	409	86	15	0	14	26	182	6	30	5	.210	.268	.350	.617	.139	.333	41	6	.264	61	-20	+4	+0	+2	+13	-0.2
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	506	475	77	16	2	14	22	223	6	20	2	.162	.209	.293	.501	.131	.261	44	4	.221	27	-42	+3	+0	+2	+14	-2.3
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	589	553	102	15	0	26	27	228	6	20	7	.184	.230	.353	.583	.168	.252	39	5	.251	50	-33	+1	+0	+2	+17	-1.3
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	527	471	112	19	2	22	41	130	8	26	8	.238	.310	.427	.736	.189	.276	25	8	.318	102	+1	+2	-4	+2	+15	1.6
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	501	455	91	19	0	20	34	166	9	16	2	.200	.269	.374	.643	.174	.261	33	7	.283	75	-14	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	49	48	8	1	0	2	1	26	0	4	1	.167	.184	.312	.496	.146	.300	53	2	.222	28	-4	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.3
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	201	184	40	7	0	9	12	68	3	8	2	.217	.276	.402	.679	.185	.285	34	6	.302	89	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.4
TOT	27	MLB	HOU	250	232	48	8	0	11	13	94	3	12	3	.207	.258	.384	.642	.177	.289	38	5	.287	77	-6	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 48%	HOU	392	358	82	14	1	18	26	108	5	14	3	.229	.290	.425	.715	.196	.272	28	7	.314	98	-1	+2	-3	+1	+11	1.1
2028	29	MLB 51%	HOU	390	355	81	14	1	17	27	107	5	13	3	.228	.292	.417	.709	.189	.273	27	7	.313	97	-1	+1	-4	+1	+11	0.9
2029	30	MLB 55%	HOU	388	353	81	14	1	17	27	107	5	12	3	.229	.294	.419	.713	.190	.273	28	7	.310	95	-2	+1	-4	+1	+11	0.7
2030	31	MLB 59%	HOU	373	339	76	13	1	16	26	104	5	10	2	.224	.289	.410	.699	.186	.272	28	7	.307	93	-3	+1	-5	+1	+11	0.5
2031	32	MLB 62%	HOU	354	322	71	12	1	14	25	101	4	8	1	.220	.285	.394	.679	.174	.270	29	7	.302	89	-4	+1	-5	+1	+10	0.3
2032	33	MLB 65%	HOU	324	294	65	11	1	13	23	94	4	6	1	.221	.287	.398	.685	.177	.268	29	7	.296	85	-6	+1	-6	+1	+9	-0.0
2033	34	MLB 75%	HOU	280	256	54	9	0	11	19	84	3	5	0	.211	.273	.375	.648	.164	.266	30	7	.289	79	-7	+1	-6	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5269	4824	1018	178	10	211	335	1702	69	188	39	.211	.272	.383	.655	.172	.274	32	6	.287	78	-133	+22	-39	+19	+149	1.8
/ 162G	—			650	595	125	22	1	26	41	210	9	23	5	.210	.271	.382	.653	.171	.273	32	6	.287	78	-16	+3	-5	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	257	233	70	22	0	16	19	81	3	16	3	.300	.361	.601	.962	.300	.391	32	7	.412	174	+21	+2	—	—	+7	3.1
2021	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	187	163	46	3	0	7	20	53	3	14	2	.282	.371	.429	.800	.147	.375	28	11	.359	133	+7	+2	—	—	+5	1.5
2022	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	506	461	101	22	2	19	36	165	6	20	2	.219	.284	.399	.683	.180	.293	33	7	.302	90	-6	+3	—	—	+14	1.2
2023	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	392	362	81	7	0	23	24	122	5	12	5	.224	.281	.434	.715	.210	.266	31	6	.315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+11	1.1
2023	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	197	176	48	12	0	12	18	56	1	8	2	.273	.344	.545	.889	.273	.327	28	9	.383	151	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2024	25	MLB	Houston Astros	46	41	9	3	0	0	5	8	0	0	0	.220	.304	.293	.597	.073	.273	17	11	.278	71	-2	+0	-4	+2	+1	-0.2
2024	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	481	413	121	19	2	25	53	95	8	26	8	.293	.384	.530	.914	.237	.320	20	11	.396	161	+33	+2	—	—	+14	5.0
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	32	32	4	0	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	.125	.125	.219	.344	.094	.143	31	0	.150	-27	-5	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.2
2025	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	469	405	108	23	0	25	52	120	9	16	2	.267	.363	.509	.871	.242	.316	26	11	.381	150	+26	+2	—	—	+13	4.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			78	73	13	3	0	1	5	18	0	0	0	.178	.231	.260	.491	.082	.222	23	6	.225	31	-6	+0	-4	+4	+2	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shay Whitcomb (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	55	45	.223/.286/.417	.194	.283	12	8	31%	7%	97	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	40→43	55	51→55	45	.219/.283/.402	.182	.267	25	13	28%	8%	90	+1.0	.216/.279/.378	.162	.291	21	21	32%	8%	82	+0.5	.215/.294/.402	.188	.269	26	25	30%	10%	92	+0.8
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	39→37	56→60	53→50	35	.216/.255/.404	.187	.281	25	17	33%	4%	79	+0.3	.222/.283/.373	.151	.316	18	11	33%	7%	82	+0.5	.225/.303/.344	.119	.336	12	5	34%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→40	59→60	47→50	44	.214/.293/.420	.206	.279	27	10	34%	8%	99	+1.7	.209/.309/.401	.192	.302	24	7	36%	11%	102	+1.8	.197/.311/.392	.195	.294	26	6	38%	12%	97	+1.0
✕Justin Maxwell 2013 · MLB	29	43→45	56→60	52→60	46	.225/.304/.420	.195	.311	24	20	34%	10%	104	+2.0	.220/.287/.382	.162	.314	19	12	34%	8%	86	+0.8	.206/.272/.338	.133	.298	14	8	34%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	44	54→55	52→50	48	.228/.308/.419	.191	.299	21	13	30%	10%	105	+2.1	.219/.307/.387	.168	.303	19	15	32%	10%	96	+1.5	.188/.286/.329	.140	.277	15	16	35%	11%	69	-0.2
✕Aristides Aquino 2021 · MLB	27	40	64→65	49→50	40	.230/.284/.462	.231	.272	35	10	30%	6%	107	+2.2	.215/.289/.413	.198	.290	27	9	34%	9%	96	+1.5	.193/.274/.380	.187	.267	25	6	36%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→43	53→50	50→55	42	.227/.302/.402	.174	.300	21	13	30%	7%	98	+1.6	.225/.303/.374	.149	.296	16	19	28%	8%	92	+1.2	.217/.302/.357	.140	.282	15	25	27%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Michael Hermosillo 2022 · MLB	27	44→46	54→55	50→55	42	.223/.311/.406	.183	.310	22	15	34%	8%	104	+2.0	.219/.300/.389	.170	.288	21	15	30%	7%	95	+1.4	.179/.243/.346	.167	.201	27	17	28%	4%	58	-0.5
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	43→44	60	53→50	41	.231/.296/.443	.212	.305	29	5	34%	7%	107	+2.2	.213/.285/.401	.188	.321	26	12	39%	8%	91	+1.1	.200/.275/.384	.184	.313	25	13	42%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Corey Julks 2023 · AAA	27	43→51	53→55	52→55	41	.226/.282/.397	.171	.285	22	18	29%	6%	89	+0.9	.232/.293/.373	.141	.295	16	20	26%	7%	86	+0.8	.235/.298/.359	.123	.298	12	21	24%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	55	51→55	45	.249/.306/.431	.182	.287	23	12	23%	6%	108	+2.3	.241/.292/.395	.154	.290	17	11	23%	5%	92	+1.2	.235/.281/.376	.141	.282	14	11	22%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Jaylin Davis 2022 · MLB	28	42→47	57→50	47→45	41	.222/.291/.413	.191	.301	26	10	34%	7%	97	+1.5	.198/.274/.336	.138	.299	16	7	37%	8%	69	-0.4	.182/.266/.311	.129	.275	15	4	37%	9%	57	-0.8
✕Joe Mather 2009 · MLB	27	43→45	57→60	51→50	46	.234/.298/.432	.199	.257	26	9	21%	7%	105	+2.1	.216/.275/.363	.147	.257	16	11	23%	6%	76	+0.1	.206/.260/.310	.104	.261	10	8	24%	7%	52	-0.7
✕Tyler Moore 2014 · MLB	27	45→46	59→65	51→40	41	.242/.289/.452	.210	.298	27	5	29%	6%	106	+2.2	.222/.283/.378	.156	.281	18	3	27%	7%	84	+0.6	.204/.267/.340	.136	.256	16	0	27%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Mike Wilson 2011 · AAA	28	40→50	56→60	50	45	.217/.293/.402	.186	.279	25	12	32%	8%	95	+1.4	.230/.299/.389	.159	.307	19	8	30%	8%	93	+1.3	.229/.297/.377	.148	.312	17	4	31%	8%	86	+0.4
●Wil Myers 2018 · MLB	27	46→54	57→60	53→55	52	.244/.324/.442	.199	.291	25	19	25%	10%	118	+3.0	.247/.321/.450	.203	.321	24	18	29%	10%	118	+3.0	.252/.331/.448	.196	.337	23	13	30%	10%	118	+2.0
✕J.J. Matijevic 2023 · MLB	27	42→41	56→55	52→50	41	.221/.283/.410	.189	.306	24	12	35%	8%	92	+1.2	.215/.277/.376	.161	.297	18	11	32%	7%	81	+0.4	.197/.263/.349	.152	.270	15	8	32%	8%	64	-0.6
●Ryan Noda 2023 · AAA	27	40→49	55	50	46	.209/.304/.392	.183	.294	25	12	36%	10%	97	+1.5	.202/.323/.370	.168	.300	20	8	36%	13%	100	+1.7	.182/.324/.341	.159	.276	19	6	37%	15%	91	+0.9
✕Casper Wells 2012 · MLB	27	43→46	56→60	44→50	42	.226/.292/.422	.197	.290	24	8	30%	7%	99	+1.7	.222/.294/.388	.166	.284	18	7	27%	8%	91	+1.1	.211/.292/.373	.161	.265	16	5	26%	9%	84	+0.3
✕Jake Fraley 2022 · MLB	27	46	53→55	53→55	51	.234/.321/.411	.177	.299	21	21	28%	10%	108	+2.3	.248/.334/.408	.160	.301	20	21	23%	11%	113	+2.6	.257/.332/.404	.146	.303	17	26	20%	9%	104	+1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)