Jase Bowen

CF El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA HR +5% Svc 0.686 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AAPIT	450	.241/.301/.366	10	22	56	—	.214/.260/.325
2025	24	AAA/AA/APIT	357	.267/.349/.432	8	20	67	—	.220/.279/.348
2026	25	AAASD	222	.292/.367/.600	13	7	105	—	.238/.294/.465
2026	25	MLBSD	103	.146/.188/.250	2	6	19	-0.6
2027PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBSD	70	.186/.242/.331	2	4	60	-0.1
2028PROJ47% MLB	27	MLBSD	133	.188/.245/.333	4	8	61	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.686First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed95

Max EV91

BB%33

Z-Con%29

K%28

Chase%22

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 4.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsTanner Kirwer (age 26) · Marland Williams (age 26) · Adam Engel (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .242 / .331

PA70

HR2

K%34

BB%6

BABIP258

ISO154

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.194

POWER

Barrel%

558.9

Avg EV

3187.7

SPEED

Sprint

9029.6

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.686 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	147	130	29	4	4	0	14	35	1	5	2	223	303	315	619	92	302	24	10	280	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	405	354	78	12	2	14	32	111	15	16	1	220	312	384	696	164	275	27	8	312	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	109	102	18	4	1	3	5	35	0	5	0	176	215	324	538	147	227	32	5	234	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	417	367	102	17	2	14	38	110	8	20	2	278	358	450	808	172	356	26	9	357	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL	Sydney Blue Sox	—	141	127	34	6	2	3	12	27	0	3	3	268	331	417	748	150	316	19	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	33	32	7	3	2	0	1	7	0	2	1	219	242	438	680	219	280	21	3	291	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	493	435	112	15	4	23	35	121	16	24	5	257	335	469	804	211	302	25	7	351	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	111	100	29	5	2	4	9	27	1	6	3	290	355	500	855	210	362	24	8	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	450	407	98	17	2	10	29	106	6	22	8	241	301	366	667	125	297	24	6	295	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	145	126	37	9	3	3	19	36	0	7	3	294	386	484	870	190	391	25	13	385	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	196	175	45	11	1	5	17	63	2	13	2	257	330	417	747	160	370	32	9	331	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	16	14	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		200	25	12	200	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	103	96	14	2	1	2	3	41	2	6	1	146	188	250	438	104	226	40	3	195	19	-10	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.6
2026	25	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	222	195	57	11	5	13	21	59	2	7	4	292	367	600	967	308	349	27	9	409	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	103	96	14	2	1	2	3	41	2	6	1	146	188	250	438	104	226	40	3	195	18	-10	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	147	135	21	3	3	0	9	50	1	5	2	156	214	222	436	67	229	34	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	405	366	63	10	1	8	20	153	15	16	1	172	244	270	515	98	254	38	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	109	104	14	3	1	2	3	46	0	5	0	135	159	240	399	106	195	42	3	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	417	379	81	12	2	9	26	150	8	20	2	214	278	327	606	113	313	36	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	33	32	6	2	2	0	1	9	0	2	1	188	212	375	587	188	257	27	3	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	493	449	84	9	3	16	21	158	16	24	5	187	249	327	576	140	236	32	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	450	416	89	15	2	9	20	135	6	22	8	214	260	325	585	111	277	30	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	145	133	34	8	3	2	12	45	0	7	3	256	317	406	723	150	362	31	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	196	180	36	8	1	4	12	81	2	13	2	200	258	322	580	122	319	41	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	133	188	133	321		180	31	6	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	103	96	14	2	1	2	3	41	2	6	1	146	188	250	438	104	226	40	3	196	19	-10	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.6
2026	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	222	202	48	9	5	9	14	71	2	7	4	238	294	465	759	228	303	32	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	147	135	21	3	3	0	9	50	1	5	2	156	214	222	436	67	244	34	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	—	147	130	29	4	4	0	14	35	1	5	2	223	303	315	619	92	302	24	10	280	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	405	366	63	10	1	8	20	153	15	16	1	172	244	270	515	98	263	38	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	405	354	78	12	2	14	32	111	15	16	1	220	312	384	696	164	275	27	8	312	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	667	615	120	19	3	14	36	249	8	28	5	195	249	304	553	109	295	37	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	667	596	154	27	5	20	55	172	8	28	5	258	329	421	750	163	326	26	8	331	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	637	586	110	14	7	20	26	201	17	32	9	188	243	338	581	150	244	32	4	249	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	637	567	148	23	8	27	45	155	17	32	9	261	334	473	807	212	311	24	7	352	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	450	416	89	15	2	9	20	135	6	22	8	214	260	325	585	111	289	30	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	450	407	98	17	2	10	29	106	6	22	8	241	301	366	667	125	297	24	6	295	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	357	328	70	16	3	6	25	131	2	20	5	213	273	335	609	122	333	37	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	357	315	84	20	4	8	38	103	2	20	5	267	349	432	781	165	371	29	11	347	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	325	298	62	11	6	11	17	112	4	13	5	208	260	396	656	188	287	34	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	325	291	71	13	6	15	24	100	4	13	5	244	310	485	795	241	313	31	7	341	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	—	147	136	21	3	3	0	9	50	1	5	2	154	214	221	434	66	229	34	6	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	405	367	63	10	1	8	20	153	15	16	1	172	244	270	514	98	254	38	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	667	618	120	19	3	14	36	249	8	28	5	194	249	303	551	108	289	37	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	637	589	110	14	7	20	26	201	17	32	9	187	243	336	579	149	237	32	4	249	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	450	421	89	15	2	9	20	135	6	22	8	211	260	321	581	109	277	30	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	357	327	70	16	3	6	25	131	2	20	5	214	273	336	610	122	330	37	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	325	301	62	11	6	11	17	112	4	13	5	206	260	392	652	186	279	34	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	450	421	89	15	2	9	20	135	6	22	8	211	260	321	581	109	277	30	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	357	327	70	16	3	6	25	131	2	20	5	214	273	336	610	122	330	37	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	325	301	62	11	6	11	17	112	4	13	5	206	260	392	652	186	279	34	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SD	45%	375	346	65	11	4	10	22	131	4	23	4	189	244	334	578	146	263	35	6	257	60	-18	+3	+1	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	SD	45%	70	65	12	2	1	2	4	24	1	4	1	186	242	331	573	145	258	34	6	255	60	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	47%	285	263	51	9	3	8	17	98	3	17	3	190	247	335	582	145	265	34	6	259	61	-13	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	47%	133	123	23	4	1	4	8	46	1	8	1	188	245	333	577	145	259	35	6	257	61	-6	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	236	219	37	6	2	6	11	87	3	14	2	169	219	297	516	128	244	37	5	230	55	-16	+2	+0	+2	+5	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	603	103	17	6	17	30	240	8	39	6	171	220	303	523	133	246	37	5	230	55	-45	+6	+0	+5	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3428	3150	613	102	30	80	179	1183	58	163	40	195	251	322	573	128	278	35	5	249	55	-31	+4	+1	+3	+12	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	116	19	6	15	34	224	11	31	8	194	251	322	572	127	278	34	5	249	55	-37	+5	+1	+3	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 222 PAwOBA .401 → .323 (−78)K% 26.6% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.58%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	31.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.01%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.33%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.86%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.965	×1.018	18.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.09%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.965	×1.018	6.59%
Triples /BIP	3.68%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.965	×1.018	3.50%
Home runs /BIP	9.56%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.018	6.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .401 → .323; ISO .308 → .236; BABIP .349 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 196 PAwOBA .324 → .247 (−76)K% 32.1% → 41.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.14%	÷0.947	×1.220	—	—	41.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×0.998	5.86%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.87%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.024	×0.970	×0.954	×0.998	22.55%
Doubles /BIP	9.82%	÷1.036	×0.860	×0.954	×0.998	7.76%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.954	×0.998	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	4.46%	÷0.891	×0.780	—	×0.998	3.90%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .324 → .247; ISO .160 → .121; BABIP .370 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 145 PAwOBA .375 → .310 (−65)K% 24.8% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.83%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	30.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.10%	÷1.112	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.012	×1.033	23.58%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.995	×0.830	×1.012	×1.033	8.71%
Triples /BIP	3.33%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.012	×1.033	2.94%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .375 → .310; ISO .190 → .157; BABIP .391 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ABradenton Marauders · 16 PAwOBA .196 → .147 (−50)K% 25.0% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	34.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.052	×0.690	—	×0.970	7.95%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.993	×0.920	—	×0.970	17.97%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.084	×0.830	—	×0.970	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.952	×0.910	—	×0.970	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.932	×0.800	—	×0.970	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 117, 3B 90, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .196 → .147; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 450 PAwOBA .291 → .251 (−39)K% 23.6% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.56%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	29.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.44%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×1.012	4.47%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.15%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷1.018	×0.970	×0.982	×1.012	21.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.65%	÷0.948	×0.860	×0.982	×1.012	5.09%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.982	×1.012	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	3.32%	÷0.844	×0.780	—	×1.012	3.11%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .291 → .251; ISO .125 → .110; BABIP .297 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 493 PAwOBA .344 → .249 (−95)K% 24.5% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.54%	÷1.005	×1.310	—	—	31.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.10%	÷1.007	×0.600	—	×0.998	4.22%
HBP% /PA	3.25%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	2.49%
Singles /BIP	22.29%	÷1.016	×0.870	×0.964	×0.998	18.37%
Doubles /BIP	4.78%	÷1.154	×0.780	×0.964	×0.998	3.11%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷0.900	×0.850	×0.964	×0.998	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	7.32%	÷1.202	×0.880	—	×0.998	5.35%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .344 → .249; ISO .211 → .149; BABIP .302 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 33 PAwOBA .283 → .245 (−38)K% 21.2% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.21%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	25.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.03%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×1.027	2.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.032	×0.970	—	×1.027	7.72%
Doubles /BIP	12.00%	÷1.142	×0.860	—	×1.027	9.28%
Triples /BIP	8.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×1.027	8.67%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.106	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .283 → .245; ISO .219 → .198; BABIP .280 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ABradenton Marauders · 417 PAwOBA .351 → .265 (−86)K% 26.4% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.38%	÷0.996	×1.360	—	—	36.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.11%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	—	6.19%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.50%
Singles /BIP	26.85%	÷0.999	×0.920	×0.999	—	24.70%
Doubles /BIP	6.61%	÷1.082	×0.830	×0.999	—	5.07%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.999	—	0.79%
Home runs /BIP	5.45%	÷1.111	×0.800	—	—	3.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .351 → .265; ISO .172 → .118; BABIP .356 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.5	306	8	18	175	224	306	+1	+2	-0.7	-0.7
/162	664	17	40	+2.4	+3.7	-1.6	pk7: -1
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jase Bowen (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	187/242/331	144	263	4	10	35%	6%	60	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tanner Kirwer 2022 · AA	26	43	44→40	61→60	47	210/297/324	114	292	13	36	30%	9%	79	-0.2	205/278/294	89	293	9	31	31%	8%	64	-1.3	190/262/256	66	274	7	35	31%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Marland Williams 2007 · AAA	26	38→40	43→45	61→60	38	189/247/299	110	293	10	37	37%	7%	53	-2.1	189/246/304	115	338	12	23	44%	7%	55	-2.0	158/214/269	111	295	13	23	49%	6%	31	-2.2
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	195/258/316	120	275	10	24	32%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/348	126	302	12	17	29%	5%	76	-0.4	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Phillip Sikes 2024 · AA	25	38→37	44→45	58→55	39	190/260/306	116	291	11	27	37%	7%	60	-1.6	192/259/305	113	293	12	21	37%	6%	60	-1.6	176/247/286	110	265	13	20	37%	6%	49	-1.2
✕Mike Antico 2024 · AA	26	42→43	45	63→60	44	209/276/336	127	277	13	39	29%	7%	73	-0.6	212/277/322	110	293	11	31	30%	7%	70	-0.8	201/271/300	99	284	10	32	31%	6%	61	-0.9
✕Josh Stowers 2023 · AA	26	36→44	48→50	55	42	191/264/331	140	268	16	22	34%	8%	68	-1.0	185/249/305	120	263	13	17	33%	7%	57	-1.8	136/198/242	106	186	12	18	34%	6%	20	-2.4
✕Will Holland 2024 · AA	26	37→36	41→45	58→60	42	179/259/279	100	282	9	29	37%	9%	54	-2.0	198/279/310	112	288	11	26	33%	8%	69	-0.9	184/276/301	117	260	13	30	32%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Matt Gorski 2024 · AAA	26	36→34	51→55	56→55	37	196/245/348	152	264	20	21	34%	6%	65	-1.2	202/250/363	161	283	20	16	35%	6%	70	-0.9	190/239/355	165	267	20	14	36%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Brenton Doyle 2024 · MLB	26	41→47	48→50	56→55	34	208/252/346	139	308	17	22	37%	5%	66	-1.1	229/279/373	144	299	17	24	28%	6%	82	+0.0	234/284/378	144	296	17	27	27%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Cam Eden 2023 · AA	25	42→51	45→40	61→65	38	204/272/323	119	312	13	38	37%	7%	69	-0.9	206/275/294	88	305	7	42	32%	7%	63	-1.3	197/270/272	75	291	5	49	31%	7%	54	-1.1
✕Billy Cook 2024 · AA	25	37→44	48→50	57→55	37	196/250/333	137	277	17	23	35%	6%	63	-1.4	213/275/345	132	297	15	22	32%	7%	75	-0.5	211/276/340	129	293	14	25	32%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Mike Jarvis 2024 · AAA	26	35	44→45	62→60	40	184/237/299	116	229	12	27	26%	5%	50	-2.3	172/226/258	86	248	8	27	33%	6%	36	-3.3	142/199/201	59	220	6	34	36%	6%	11	-1.7
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	43→50	48→50	60	40	213/284/354	141	321	17	33	37%	8%	80	-0.1	198/278/353	155	303	18	33	38%	8%	79	-0.2	207/283/355	147	290	18	38	33%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Monte Harrison 2023 · MLB	27	45	46→50	61→60	37	208/274/334	127	358	15	36	43%	8%	72	-0.7	202/260/309	107	377	10	26	46%	6%	61	-1.5	169/222/246	76	355	7	31	51%	5%	29	-1.9
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41→42	49→50	58→55	46	213/273/359	146	256	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	218/276/366	148	265	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.2	210/266/364	154	249	17	20	23%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Elijah Dunham 2024 · AAA	26	42→44	47→50	57→60	45	209/284/346	137	283	14	28	30%	8%	78	-0.3	207/274/345	138	295	14	20	32%	8%	74	-0.5	192/258/336	144	273	14	17	33%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Stephen Wrenn 2021 · AA	26	42→43	42→45	58→60	40	205/267/317	112	292	9	25	32%	6%	65	-1.2	211/271/323	112	320	11	22	35%	6%	68	-1.0	194/255/296	102	301	10	29	37%	5%	54	-1.2
✕Max Burt 2024 · AAA	27	39→35	45	55	39	200/257/319	119	279	14	22	33%	6%	62	-1.4	182/240/274	92	269	9	24	34%	6%	45	-2.7	162/221/238	76	241	6	29	34%	5%	28	-1.9
✕Lane Adams 2017 · AAA	27	45	44→50	59→60	42	223/276/335	113	295	11	32	28%	6%	73	-0.6	208/266/335	127	311	14	29	35%	7%	69	-0.9	187/251/323	136	289	16	28	39%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Tyler Tolbert 2024 · AA	26	44→48	41→45	68→65	41	212/267/318	106	292	7	38	29%	6%	65	-1.2	222/280/314	92	303	7	46	27%	6%	69	-0.9	222/284/299	77	304	6	60	27%	6%	65	-0.6

Jase Bowen

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps