Mike Jarvis
SS Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AAPIT | 170 | .148/.240/.248 | 3 | 8 | 4 | — | .117/.185/.189 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AAPIT | 283 | .196/.257/.275 | 3 | 25 | 13 | — | .165/.210/.234 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA/APIT | 130 | .182/.291/.245 | 1 | 9 | 17 | — | .156/.236/.208 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBPIT | 10 | .168/.224/.239 | 0 | 0 | 30 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBPIT | 41 | .169/.226/.240 | 0 | 1 | 31 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 267 | 389 | 400 | 789 | 133 | 364 | 22 | 6 | 361 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | — | 49 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 357 | 449 | 667 | 1.116 | 310 | 361 | 8 | 6 | 480 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 28 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 214 | 160 | 374 | 40 | 188 | 32 | 11 | 185 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 116 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 196 | 287 | 461 | 748 | 265 | 179 | 24 | 8 | 326 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 200 | 182 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 231 | 300 | 363 | 663 | 132 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 299 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 100 | 94 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 234 | 270 | 266 | 536 | 32 | 273 | 16 | 5 | 246 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 273 | 237 | 54 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 52 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 228 | 320 | 439 | 759 | 211 | 246 | 19 | 9 | 332 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 170 | 158 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 247 | 283 | 354 | 638 | 108 | 281 | 16 | 3 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 71 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 210 | 300 | 355 | 655 | 145 | 289 | 32 | 10 | 293 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 99 | 87 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 103 | 196 | 172 | 368 | 69 | 143 | 31 | 9 | 176 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 79 | 72 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 181 | 244 | 278 | 521 | 97 | 250 | 30 | 6 | 236 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 204 | 183 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 202 | 263 | 273 | 536 | 71 | 261 | 25 | 6 | 240 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 113 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 184 | 273 | 255 | 528 | 71 | 283 | 33 | 11 | 242 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 17 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 412 | 167 | 578 | 250 | 24 | 24 | 314 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 267 | 389 | 400 | 789 | 133 | 335 | 28 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates Gold | — | 49 | 43 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 279 | 367 | 512 | 879 | 233 | 265 | 12 | 4 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 28 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 179 | 154 | 332 | 38 | 169 | 39 | 7 | 141 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 116 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 132 | 200 | 292 | 492 | 160 | 145 | 32 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 200 | 187 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 57 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 176 | 230 | 273 | 503 | 96 | 241 | 28 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 100 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 206 | 230 | 237 | 467 | 31 | 242 | 20 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 273 | 248 | 40 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 68 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 161 | 227 | 302 | 529 | 141 | 186 | 25 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 71 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 243 | 266 | 508 | 94 | 263 | 41 | 7 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 99 | 90 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 78 | 144 | 133 | 278 | 56 | 127 | 39 | 6 | 136 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 79 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 149 | 192 | 230 | 422 | 81 | 217 | 38 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 204 | 187 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 64 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 171 | 217 | 235 | 452 | 64 | 224 | 31 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 113 | 102 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 157 | 218 | 216 | 434 | 59 | 248 | 39 | 7 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 17 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 353 | 154 | 507 | 216 | 29 | 18 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 67 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 254 | 343 | 458 | 801 | 203 | 283 | 16 | 3 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 67 | 57 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 333 | 433 | 596 | 1.029 | 263 | 362 | 12 | 6 | 448 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 344 | 319 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 105 | 8 | 24 | 5 | 157 | 216 | 270 | 485 | 113 | 207 | 31 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 344 | 309 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 79 | 8 | 24 | 5 | 210 | 289 | 379 | 667 | 168 | 245 | 23 | 8 | 299 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 499 | 87 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 127 | 10 | 40 | 5 | 174 | 230 | 283 | 512 | 108 | 208 | 23 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 543 | 489 | 115 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 35 | 95 | 10 | 40 | 5 | 235 | 299 | 378 | 677 | 143 | 263 | 17 | 6 | 299 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 170 | 154 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 117 | 186 | 188 | 374 | 71 | 188 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 170 | 149 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 148 | 240 | 248 | 488 | 101 | 202 | 32 | 9 | 225 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 261 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 94 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 161 | 207 | 218 | 425 | 57 | 237 | 33 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 255 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 74 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 196 | 257 | 275 | 532 | 78 | 258 | 26 | 6 | 239 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 115 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 148 | 228 | 200 | 428 | 52 | 250 | 38 | 8 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 130 | 110 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 41 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 182 | 291 | 245 | 537 | 64 | 279 | 32 | 12 | 251 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 67 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 254 | 343 | 458 | 801 | 203 | 284 | 16 | 3 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 344 | 317 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 105 | 8 | 24 | 5 | 158 | 216 | 271 | 487 | 114 | 203 | 31 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 502 | 87 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 127 | 10 | 40 | 5 | 173 | 230 | 281 | 511 | 108 | 201 | 23 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 170 | 155 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 116 | 186 | 187 | 373 | 71 | 184 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 266 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 94 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 158 | 207 | 214 | 421 | 56 | 222 | 33 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 117 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 145 | 228 | 197 | 425 | 51 | 244 | 38 | 8 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 170 | 155 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 69 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 116 | 186 | 187 | 373 | 71 | 184 | 41 | 6 | 175 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 266 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 94 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 158 | 207 | 214 | 421 | 56 | 222 | 33 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 130 | 117 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 145 | 228 | 197 | 425 | 51 | 244 | 38 | 8 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 10% | 200 | 184 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 168 | 224 | 240 | 464 | 71 | 238 | 31 | 6 | 213 | 30 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 224 | 239 | 463 | 71 | 239 | 30 | 10 | 213 | 30 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | PIT | 27% | 151 | 140 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 169 | 226 | 241 | 467 | 72 | 239 | 30 | 6 | 214 | 31 | -12 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | PIT | 27% | 41 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 226 | 240 | 466 | 71 | 240 | 32 | 5 | 214 | 31 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 195 | 179 | 375 | 26 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 214 | 30 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 618 | 95 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 206 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 154 | 195 | 180 | 375 | 26 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 214 | 30 | -53 | +3 | -9 | +7 | +14 | -3.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1793 | 1644 | 268 | 41 | 13 | 27 | 92 | 534 | 33 | 126 | 23 | 163 | 222 | 253 | 475 | 90 | 220 | 30 | 5 | 212 | 30 | -21 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 98 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 194 | 12 | 46 | 8 | 164 | 223 | 257 | 480 | 92 | 222 | 30 | 5 | 212 | 30 | -54 | +3 | -5 | +7 | +14 | -3.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 113 PAwOBA .236 → .188 (−48)K% 32.7% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×0.992 | 19.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.992 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .236 → .188; ISO .071 → .054; BABIP .283 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ABradenton Marauders · 17 PAwOBA .308 → .229 (−80)K% 23.5% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 15.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 4.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 21.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .229; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 204 PAwOBA .238 → .190 (−47)K% 24.5% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.80% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.76% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 2.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .238 → .190; ISO .071 → .056; BABIP .261 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 79 PAwOBA .233 → .180 (−53)K% 30.4% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.38% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.33% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×1.003 | 15.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.003 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .233 → .180; ISO .097 → .073; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 99 PAwOBA .174 → .136 (−38)K% 31.3% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.31% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 8.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .174 → .136; ISO .069 → .058; BABIP .143 → .127. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 71 PAwOBA .290 → .229 (−61)K% 32.4% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.39% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.009 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 21.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 2.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 2.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.909 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .229; ISO .145 → .107; BABIP .289 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 273 PAwOBA .328 → .235 (−92)K% 19.0% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.16% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.68% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 12.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 2.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.87% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .328 → .235; ISO .211 → .154; BABIP .246 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 100 PAwOBA .239 → .200 (−40)K% 16.0% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 23.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .239 → .200; ISO .032 → .022; BABIP .273 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .