Mike Jarvis — OGILVIE

Mike JarvisSS Indianapolis Indians

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA BB +7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

wRC+†35

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .238 / .276

PA250

HR4

SB13

K%32

BB%5

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

30→30

SPD

60→60

EYE

39↘30

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$-17M		$-23M	-$7M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	ROK	2 teams	67	58	16	2	2	2	3	11	6	11	0	.276	.373	.483	.856	.207	.311	16	4	.339	117	+1	+2	+0	+1	+2	0.6
2022	24	A	3 teams	344	318	50	10	2	7	17	108	8	24	5	.157	.219	.267	.486	.110	.211	31	5	.219	26	-29	+3	+0	+4	+10	-1.3
2023	25	A+	3 teams	543	498	90	10	7	12	27	128	10	40	5	.181	.237	.301	.539	.120	.215	24	5	.234	37	-39	+6	+0	+6	+15	-1.2
2024	26	AA	2 teams	170	154	19	3	1	3	11	70	2	8	3	.123	.192	.214	.406	.091	.193	41	6	.174	-8	-21	+0	+0	+2	+5	-1.4
2025	27	AA	2 teams	283	261	43	7	1	3	11	97	4	25	5	.165	.210	.234	.444	.069	.242	34	4	.191	5	-31	+3	+0	+3	+8	-1.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	19	18	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	3	1	.167	.211	.222	.433	.056	.300	42	5	.180	-4	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
ROS	28	MLB	PIT	231	214	41	7	1	4	12	75	3	10	2	.192	.245	.290	.534	.098	.266	32	5	.235	38	-16	+1	+0	+2	+7	-0.6
TOT	28	MLB	PIT	250	232	44	8	1	4	13	83	3	13	3	.190	.242	.284	.526	.095	.274	33	5	.231	35	-18	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB 20%	PIT	295	273	52	9	1	5	17	94	3	12	2	.190	.246	.286	.531	.095	.268	32	6	.242	43	-19	+2	-1	+3	+8	-0.7
2028	30	MLB 33%	PIT	322	296	58	10	2	5	19	101	4	11	2	.196	.254	.294	.548	.098	.269	31	6	.245	46	-20	+1	-2	+3	+9	-0.8
2029	31	MLB 43%	PIT	320	295	56	10	1	5	19	100	3	9	1	.190	.246	.281	.527	.092	.268	31	6	.245	46	-20	+1	-3	+3	+9	-0.9
2030	32	MLB 57%	PIT	310	285	54	9	1	5	19	98	3	8	1	.189	.248	.281	.528	.091	.267	32	6	.243	44	-20	+1	-4	+3	+9	-1.0
2031	33	MLB 75%	PIT	285	263	48	8	1	4	17	92	3	6	0	.183	.240	.266	.506	.084	.266	32	6	.237	40	-19	+1	-4	+3	+8	-1.1
2032	34	MLB 92%	PIT	246	227	41	7	1	3	15	82	2	5	0	.181	.238	.260	.498	.079	.264	33	6	.231	35	-18	+1	-5	+3	+7	-1.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3416	3142	568	92	21	58	187	1056	51	169	26	.181	.238	.279	.517	.098	.249	31	5	.232	36	-249	+23	-19	+37	+97	-11.3
/ 162G	—			650	598	109	18	4	11	36	201	10	32	5	.182	.241	.281	.522	.099	.251	31	6	.232	36	-47	+4	-4	+7	+18	-2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	18	15	4	0	1	0	1	4	2	3	0	.267	.389	.400	.789	.133	.364	22	6	.361	134	+1	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2021	23	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	49	42	15	3	2	2	3	4	4	8	0	.357	.449	.667	1.116	.310	.361	8	6	.480	225	+7	+2	—	—	+1	1.0
2022	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	28	25	3	1	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	.120	.214	.160	.374	.040	.188	32	11	.185	0	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	24	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	116	102	20	3	0	8	9	28	4	12	1	.196	.287	.461	.748	.265	.179	24	8	.326	108	+1	+2	—	—	+3	0.6
2022	24	A	Bradenton Marauders	200	182	42	9	3	3	14	42	4	12	4	.231	.300	.363	.663	.132	.285	21	7	.299	87	-3	+1	—	—	+6	0.4
2023	25	AA	Altoona Curve	100	94	22	0	0	1	5	16	0	11	0	.234	.270	.266	.536	.032	.273	16	5	.246	46	-6	+2	—	—	+3	-0.1
2023	25	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	273	237	54	10	5	10	25	52	7	20	1	.228	.320	.439	.759	.211	.246	19	9	.332	112	+4	+4	—	—	+8	1.5
2023	25	INTL	Sydney Blue Sox	170	158	39	4	2	3	5	27	3	9	4	.247	.283	.354	.638	.108	.281	16	3	.279	72	-5	+0	—	—	+5	-0.0
2024	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	71	62	13	1	1	2	7	23	1	4	2	.210	.300	.355	.655	.145	.289	32	10	.293	83	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	26	AA	Altoona Curve	99	87	9	3	0	1	9	31	1	4	1	.103	.196	.172	.368	.069	.143	31	9	.176	-7	-12	+0	—	—	+3	-0.9
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	79	72	13	4	0	1	5	24	1	8	1	.181	.244	.278	.521	.097	.250	30	6	.236	39	-5	+1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	27	AA	Altoona Curve	204	183	37	5	1	2	12	50	3	17	4	.202	.263	.273	.536	.071	.261	25	6	.240	42	-13	+2	—	—	+6	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mike Jarvis (OGILVIE)	28	35	30	60	30	.186/.238/.276	.091	.266	4	11	32%	5%	38	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA	28	39	41→40	50→55	43	.192/.252/.291	.099	.264	9	14	30%	7%	47	-1.9	.193/.261/.280	.087	.291	8	11	34%	7%	49	-1.8	.161/.236/.224	.063	.253	6	8	36%	7%	21	-1.1
✕Jacob Hannemann 2019 · MLB	28	40→43	42→45	56→60	40	.200/.250/.306	.106	.261	10	27	27%	5%	50	-1.7	.210/.264/.328	.118	.266	12	22	25%	6%	62	-0.9	.196/.267/.344	.148	.222	17	30	20%	8%	66	-0.1
✕Brantley Bell 2023 · AAA	28	41→44	39→40	52→55	40	.201/.249/.287	.086	.275	6	14	28%	5%	44	-2.1	.207/.256/.314	.107	.324	9	16	37%	5%	55	-1.4	.164/.210/.247	.083	.293	5	25	44%	5%	16	-0.7
✕JJ Muno 2022 · AA	28	39	43→40	53→60	39	.192/.276/.299	.108	.280	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	.204/.287/.299	.095	.295	9	27	32%	7%	66	-0.6	.192/.283/.264	.072	.280	6	39	31%	7%	53	-0.9
✕Isaac Galloway 2018 · AAA	28	43→42	44→45	54→55	38	.216/.257/.329	.112	.285	12	24	29%	4%	59	-1.1	.212/.259/.348	.136	.286	15	22	31%	5%	66	-0.6	.193/.238/.324	.131	.261	15	23	32%	4%	47	-1.0
✕Todd Hankins 2018 · AAA	27	42→48	40	51→55	37	.204/.247/.289	.085	.291	7	19	32%	5%	43	-2.2	.221/.270/.311	.090	.322	7	21	32%	6%	59	-1.1	.249/.299/.334	.085	.361	5	31	30%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2023 · AAA	28	42→46	43→45	53→60	39	.207/.274/.314	.107	.294	11	21	32%	6%	63	-0.8	.188/.283/.307	.119	.270	13	28	33%	9%	67	-0.5	.158/.273/.275	.117	.225	14	34	34%	10%	52	-1.1
✕Michael O'Neill 2019 · AAA	27	42→40	43→45	55	36	.208/.259/.319	.112	.303	11	21	34%	5%	58	-1.2	.217/.265/.310	.093	.325	9	19	34%	5%	58	-1.2	.221/.265/.284	.063	.337	7	18	35%	5%	45	-1.3
✕Stephen Wrenn 2021 · AA	26	41→43	42→45	59→60	39	.200/.260/.310	.111	.293	9	26	34%	6%	56	-1.3	.207/.268/.324	.117	.323	12	22	37%	6%	63	-0.8	.189/.251/.296	.108	.301	12	29	39%	5%	47	-1.1
✕Eric Stamets 2021 · MLB	29	40→50	42→45	56→50	39	.198/.251/.306	.107	.276	9	15	31%	6%	50	-1.7	.184/.252/.297	.113	.258	12	13	32%	7%	50	-1.8	.134/.215/.232	.098	.183	12	13	33%	7%	16	-1.2
✕Ryan Knox 2006 · AAA	29	41	40	51→55	40	.202/.254/.290	.088	.264	9	24	26%	5%	48	-1.9	.189/.241/.286	.097	.260	9	17	30%	5%	41	-2.3	.134/.187/.213	.079	.189	8	11	33%	5%	-2	-1.9
✕Kenny Wilson 2018 · AAA	28	46→50	39→40	54→60	43	.219/.280/.304	.086	.300	6	25	28%	7%	63	-0.9	.213/.279/.319	.106	.322	9	20	34%	7%	66	-0.6	.202/.275/.325	.123	.322	10	22	37%	8%	64	-0.2
✕Cody Wilson 2023 · AAA	27	37	37→30	57→55	35	.174/.233/.244	.070	.297	5	26	41%	6%	27	-3.3	.173/.236/.241	.068	.319	5	26	44%	6%	28	-3.2	.146/.214/.196	.051	.283	4	29	46%	6%	6	-2.1
✕Omar Renteria 2017 · AAA	27	45	40→30	52→45	37	.217/.260/.306	.089	.311	8	12	32%	5%	53	-1.5	.224/.273/.310	.086	.310	9	11	29%	5%	61	-1.0	.221/.273/.267	.046	.300	4	7	26%	6%	48	-0.6
✕Ryan Strausborger 2015 · AAA	27	44→45	41→45	61→55	40	.216/.257/.320	.104	.275	8	23	24%	4%	56	-1.3	.215/.261/.318	.103	.278	10	26	25%	5%	58	-1.2	.204/.256/.297	.093	.271	9	28	27%	5%	48	-0.9
✕Jack López 2023 · MLB	30	38→44	41→45	54→55	33	.191/.233/.290	.099	.290	9	19	36%	4%	39	-2.5	.207/.250/.324	.117	.300	12	16	34%	5%	55	-1.4	.207/.250/.317	.110	.296	12	15	33%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Brian Bocock 2013 · AAA	28	43→47	38→40	50	44	.207/.256/.284	.077	.262	5	14	23%	6%	46	-2.0	.206/.250/.289	.083	.267	6	11	24%	5%	46	-2.0	.197/.240/.269	.072	.260	4	6	25%	5%	33	-1.4
✕Simon Whiteman 2023 · AA	26	40→44	37→30	58→55	42	.182/.263/.250	.067	.302	4	26	38%	9%	42	-2.3	.195/.265/.272	.077	.291	6	20	32%	8%	48	-1.9	.190/.256/.259	.069	.262	5	20	28%	8%	38	-1.0
✕Terrance Gore 2019 · AAA	28	42→40	34→30	63→70	41	.200/.252/.249	.049	.275	3	42	27%	6%	36	-2.7	.206/.277/.284	.078	.306	4	43	31%	8%	56	-1.3	.200/.300/.277	.076	.306	0	73	30%	11%	62	-0.2
✕Mason McCoy 2023 · AAA	28	40→50	47→45	56→55	39	.203/.256/.340	.137	.289	14	18	34%	6%	62	-0.9	.195/.257/.313	.118	.289	12	23	34%	7%	56	-1.3	.186/.252/.289	.103	.277	10	26	35%	7%	45	-1.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)