Jason Matthews
SS Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 577 | .221/.315/.322 | 8 | 14 | 53 | — | .159/.225/.212 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/AACWS | 306 | .209/.332/.287 | 3 | 8 | 44 | — | .183/.272/.254 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA/AACWS | 199 | .211/.349/.335 | 5 | 2 | 53 | — | .176/.282/.272 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBCWS | 13 | .183/.268/.262 | 0 | 0 | 53 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBCWS | 34 | .182/.266/.261 | 0 | 0 | 52 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 349 | 301 | 63 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 110 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 209 | 312 | 289 | 601 | 80 | 319 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Auckland Tuatara | — | 131 | 114 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 349 | 447 | 796 | 184 | 298 | 20 | 11 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 357 | 607 | 214 | 125 | 31 | 12 | 274 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 50 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 320 | 372 | 692 | 163 | 304 | 36 | 8 | 317 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 103 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 171 | 327 | 220 | 546 | 49 | 277 | 35 | 14 | 269 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 418 | 360 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 117 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 194 | 291 | 267 | 558 | 72 | 273 | 28 | 10 | 257 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 159 | 137 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 292 | 378 | 467 | 845 | 175 | 371 | 23 | 10 | 370 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 52 | 43 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 349 | 451 | 512 | 963 | 163 | 560 | 33 | 12 | 420 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 254 | 211 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 59 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 180 | 308 | 242 | 550 | 62 | 238 | 23 | 14 | 263 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 174 | 143 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 217 | 341 | 315 | 656 | 98 | 322 | 31 | 12 | 302 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 25 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 400 | 500 | 900 | 333 | 143 | 36 | 28 | 398 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 349 | 317 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 151 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 148 | 220 | 205 | 425 | 57 | 260 | 43 | 6 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 333 | 521 | 200 | 117 | 38 | 6 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 50 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 227 | 467 | 91 | 258 | 46 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 103 | 87 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 115 | 238 | 161 | 399 | 46 | 215 | 49 | 9 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 418 | 377 | 60 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 146 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 159 | 225 | 212 | 437 | 53 | 237 | 35 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 52 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 311 | 392 | 467 | 859 | 156 | 512 | 38 | 8 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 254 | 223 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 157 | 248 | 211 | 459 | 54 | 211 | 28 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 174 | 150 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 180 | 276 | 247 | 523 | 67 | 283 | 37 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 25 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 320 | 450 | 770 | 300 | 118 | 44 | 20 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 438 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 208 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 146 | 213 | 196 | 409 | 50 | 268 | 43 | 6 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 480 | 415 | 93 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 136 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 322 | 333 | 655 | 108 | 313 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 169 | 146 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 79 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 123 | 234 | 192 | 425 | 68 | 227 | 47 | 8 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 169 | 139 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 59 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 180 | 317 | 281 | 598 | 101 | 269 | 35 | 12 | 284 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 577 | 520 | 83 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 201 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 160 | 227 | 217 | 444 | 58 | 246 | 35 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 577 | 497 | 110 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 59 | 153 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 221 | 315 | 322 | 637 | 101 | 301 | 27 | 10 | 288 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 268 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 91 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 272 | 254 | 526 | 71 | 263 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 254 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 76 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 209 | 332 | 287 | 620 | 79 | 284 | 25 | 13 | 289 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 199 | 170 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 76 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 176 | 282 | 271 | 553 | 94 | 286 | 38 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 199 | 161 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 63 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 211 | 349 | 335 | 684 | 124 | 309 | 32 | 14 | 314 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 440 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 208 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 145 | 213 | 195 | 408 | 50 | 260 | 43 | 6 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 169 | 146 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 79 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 123 | 234 | 192 | 425 | 68 | 218 | 47 | 8 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 577 | 527 | 83 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 201 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 157 | 227 | 214 | 441 | 57 | 237 | 35 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 270 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 91 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 272 | 252 | 524 | 70 | 262 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 199 | 172 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 76 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 174 | 282 | 267 | 549 | 93 | 262 | 38 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 577 | 527 | 83 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 201 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 157 | 227 | 214 | 441 | 57 | 237 | 35 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 270 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 91 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 272 | 252 | 524 | 70 | 262 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 199 | 172 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 76 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 174 | 282 | 267 | 549 | 93 | 262 | 38 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 249 | 221 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 79 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 183 | 268 | 261 | 528 | 78 | 266 | 32 | 8 | 246 | 53 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 268 | 262 | 531 | 79 | 266 | 31 | 8 | 247 | 53 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 27% | 123 | 110 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 182 | 266 | 259 | 525 | 77 | 264 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 52 | -7 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 27% | 34 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 266 | 261 | 527 | 78 | 265 | 32 | 9 | 245 | 52 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 265 | 200 | 465 | 33 | 263 | 32 | 9 | 245 | 30 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 95 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 210 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 263 | 199 | 462 | 33 | 261 | 32 | 9 | 245 | 30 | -37 | +0 | -15 | +7 | +14 | -3.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1985 | 1769 | 285 | 40 | 7 | 20 | 143 | 736 | 43 | 39 | 17 | 161 | 241 | 226 | 466 | 64 | 259 | 37 | 7 | 212 | 30 | -14 | -0 | -3 | +3 | +6 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 47 | 241 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 161 | 241 | 226 | 467 | 66 | 257 | 37 | 7 | 212 | 30 | -37 | -1 | -7 | +7 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 174 PAwOBA .297 → .240 (−57)K% 31.0% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 3.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×0.982 | 23.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×0.982 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .297 → .240; ISO .098 → .072; BABIP .322 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABirmingham Barons · 25 PAwOBA .389 → .288 (−101)K% 36.0% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 18.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 9.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 17.03% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .288; ISO .333 → .269; BABIP .143 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 254 PAwOBA .258 → .211 (−47)K% 23.2% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.23% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.08% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.968 | 16.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.61% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | ×0.968 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.953 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.30% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .258 → .211; ISO .062 → .058; BABIP .238 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 52 PAwOBA .409 → .343 (−66)K% 32.7% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.69% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 46.15% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 42.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 7.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .409 → .343; ISO .163 → .127; BABIP .560 → .512. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABirmingham Barons · 418 PAwOBA .253 → .199 (−54)K% 28.0% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.99% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.081 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×0.978 | 19.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.29% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×0.956 | ×0.978 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.044 | ×0.880 | ×0.956 | ×0.978 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.38% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .253 → .199; ISO .072 → .060; BABIP .273 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 103 PAwOBA .268 → .182 (−87)K% 35.0% → 48.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.95% | ÷0.948 | ×1.310 | — | — | 48.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.59% | ÷0.943 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.85% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 3.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 20.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 1.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.017 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .268 → .182; ISO .049 → .035; BABIP .277 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABirmingham Barons · 50 PAwOBA .309 → .223 (−86)K% 36.0% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.00% | ÷0.938 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 4.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 20.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 6.24% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 93, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .223; ISO .163 → .112; BABIP .304 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 16 PAwOBA .266 → .181 (−85)K% 31.2% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.967 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 10.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.152 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.87% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .181; ISO .214 → .126; BABIP .125 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .