Jason Matthews — OGILVIE

Jason MatthewsSS Charlotte Knights

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION152 act + 101 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.168 / .259 / .224

PA101

HR1

K%34

BB%9

BABIP253

ISO56

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	25	A+	2 teams	—	480	435	65	13	1	2	30	224	10	6	2	149	221	198	419	48	297	47	6	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+	2 teams	—	480	415	93	22	1	7	50	136	10	6	2	224	322	333	655	108	313	28	10	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+	3 teams	—	169	145	16	1	0	3	14	87	8	6	2	110	228	179	407	69	228	51	8	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+	3 teams	—	169	139	25	2	0	4	20	59	8	6	2	180	317	281	598	101	269	35	12	284	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	2 teams	—	577	521	85	9	3	6	35	217	9	14	4	163	228	226	455	63	262	38	6	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	2 teams	—	577	497	110	20	3	8	59	153	9	14	4	221	315	322	637	101	301	27	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA	2 teams	—	306	267	52	6	2	4	28	94	6	8	3	195	286	277	563	82	282	31	9	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA	2 teams	—	306	254	53	7	2	3	41	76	6	8	3	209	332	287	620	79	284	25	13	289	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	AAA	CWS	—	152	128	23	3	0	3	16	55	5	2	3	180	295	273	569	94	286	36	11	259	56	-7	-1	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
YTD	29	AAA	CWS	—	152	121	25	3	0	4	23	45	5	2	3	207	356	331	686	124	292	30	15	317	101	+0	-1	+0	+2	+4	0.5
ROS	29	AAA	CWS	10%	101	89	15	2	0	1	9	34	2	2	1	168	259	224	483	56	267	34	9	245	46	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
ROS	29	MLB	CWS	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		267	30	10	230	35	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	29	AAA	CWS	—	162	137	24	3	0	3	17	58	5	2	3	175	289	263	552	88	276	36	10	257	55	-8	-1	+0	+2	+5	-0.3
TOT	29	AAA	CWS	—	253	217	38	5	0	4	25	89	7	4	4	175	281	253	534	78	271	35	10	253	52	-14	-1	+0	+3	+7	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	CWS	27%	309	274	50	7	1	5	26	102	6	4	2	182	268	270	538	88	268	33	8	251	50	-17	+0	-2	+3	+9	-0.8
2028	31	MLB	CWS	37%	314	278	51	7	1	5	27	102	6	4	2	183	270	270	540	86	268	32	9	252	51	-17	+0	-3	+3	+9	-0.8
2029	32	MLB	CWS	43%	308	274	50	7	1	5	26	100	5	3	2	182	266	270	536	88	267	32	8	251	50	-17	-0	-4	+3	+9	-0.9
2027	30	MLB	CWS	27%	84	75	13	2	0	1	7	28	2	1	1	173	262	240	502	67	269	33	8	237	40	-6	-0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2028	31	MLB	CWS	37%	117	104	19	3	0	2	10	38	2	1	1	183	267	269	536	87	269	32	9	240	42	-8	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.4
2029	32	MLB	CWS	43%	133	119	21	3	0	2	11	43	2	1	1	176	258	252	510	76	267	32	8	239	41	-9	-0	-2	+1	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	344	307	54	8	0	5	29	112	6	3	3	176	260	251	511	75	255	33	8	239	41	-23	-1	-3	+4	+10	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	101	15	0	9	55	212	11	6	6	174	259	247	505	72	253	33	8	239	41	-43	-1	-6	+7	+18	-2.6
Career	—			—	2564	2283	384	52	9	31	195	960	52	47	18	168	249	240	489	71	270	37	8	225	30	-202	+2	-8	+27	+73	-11.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	97	13	2	8	49	243	13	12	5	168	248	238	486	71	268	37	8	225	30	-51	+0	-2	+7	+18	-2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	25	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	349	301	63	16	1	2	36	110	9	6	1	209	312	289	601	80	319	32	10	280	73	-11	+1	—	—	+10	-0.0
2022	25	INTL	Auckland Tuatara	—	131	114	30	6	0	5	14	26	1	0	1	263	349	447	796	184	298	20	11	350	126	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	16	14	2	0	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	143	250	357	607	214	125	31	12	274	68	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	26	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	50	43	9	1	0	2	4	18	3	1	0	209	320	372	692	163	304	36	8	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	26	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	103	82	14	1	0	1	14	36	5	5	2	171	327	220	546	49	277	35	14	269	64	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	27	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	418	360	70	8	3	4	43	117	6	8	2	194	291	267	558	72	273	28	10	257	55	-21	+1	—	—	+12	-0.9
2024	27	INTL	Canberra Cavalry	—	159	137	40	12	0	4	16	36	3	6	2	292	378	467	845	175	371	23	10	370	141	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
2025	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	52	43	15	0	2	1	6	17	2	1	0	349	451	512	963	163	560	33	12	420	179	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	28	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	254	211	38	7	0	2	35	59	4	7	3	180	308	242	550	62	238	23	14	263	59	-12	+0	—	—	+7	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	360	6	4	185	267	272	+4	+3	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	10	8	185	267	272	+7.1	+5.5	-1.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jason Matthews (OGILVIE)	29	30	30	50	60	175/281/253	78	271	4	4	35%	10%	52	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	38	40	47→55	43	190/255/276	86	266	8	13	31%	7%	45	-2.1	197/261/293	96	305	9	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	152/225/219	67	257	5	5	40%	6%	15	-1.2
✕Erick Castillo 2022 · AAA	29	43	37→30	47→30	45	205/275/277	71	256	5	5	21%	6%	54	-1.4	219/278/298	79	278	7	7	23%	5%	60	-1.0	223/271/238	15	289	0	0	21%	2%	38	-0.5
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	41→42	41→45	51→50	41	201/265/300	99	287	8	10	31%	7%	56	-1.3	188/252/274	86	318	7	8	40%	7%	43	-2.2	130/202/174	44	264	1	2	47%	8%	-5	-2.2
✕Pat Cantwell 2018 · AAA	28	42	37→30	45→40	38	200/254/268	68	282	5	9	30%	5%	42	-2.3	228/300/342	114	318	11	10	30%	7%	82	+0.5	257/346/404	147	325	16	6	24%	9%	114	+0.7
✕Max McDowell 2023 · AAA	29	40→48	39→40	47→50	44	192/276/277	85	266	6	9	28%	7%	56	-1.3	193/274/297	104	277	12	6	33%	7%	60	-1.0	168/259/259	91	245	13	1	35%	7%	43	-0.9
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2022 · AA	28	42	40→30	48→45	38	203/255/293	90	292	7	9	32%	5%	49	-1.8	218/289/294	76	280	5	8	22%	7%	64	-0.8	205/285/239	34	267	0	2	21%	7%	45	-0.8
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB	28	41	39→45	42→40	39	200/246/285	85	278	6	5	30%	5%	43	-2.2	222/278/307	85	291	5	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	216/271/282	67	281	3	2	23%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Brantley Bell 2023 · AAA	28	41→42	39→40	52→55	39	201/246/287	86	279	6	14	30%	5%	43	-2.2	210/260/322	112	330	10	16	37%	6%	59	-1.1	164/214/251	87	293	7	25	44%	5%	19	-0.7
✕Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez 2015 · AAA	30	42	39→30	43→50	38	202/250/287	84	279	6	9	29%	5%	45	-2.1	219/275/338	119	277	12	10	24%	6%	69	-0.4	201/252/294	92	253	8	6	23%	6%	43	-0.7
✕Pete Kozma 2017 · MLB	29	40→47	36→45	46→50	44	193/246/256	63	241	4	12	22%	6%	35	-2.8	196/245/282	86	245	7	9	22%	5%	42	-2.3	190/238/287	96	231	7	6	21%	5%	38	-1.7
✕Ali Solis 2017 · AAA	29	35	38→45	42→30	35	177/207/248	71	239	6	4	29%	3%	16	-4.1	201/236/313	112	282	12	6	32%	4%	46	-2.0	198/233/337	139	266	18	3	33%	4%	47	-0.9
✕J.C. Boscan 2008 · AAA	28	42	37→40	44→30	47	202/273/271	69	281	6	6	28%	8%	51	-1.7	219/282/293	74	286	5	4	23%	7%	60	-1.0	219/280/288	69	285	5	2	23%	7%	55	-0.7
✕Scott Burcham 2021 · AA	28	39	39→30	46→50	39	192/245/272	80	277	7	11	32%	6%	40	-2.4	200/243/290	90	328	8	8	39%	5%	43	-2.2	157/181/209	52	285	2	0	45%	3%	-7	-1.2
✕Joe Hudson 2019 · AAA	28	40	40→45	47→40	43	197/251/291	95	263	7	3	27%	6%	47	-1.9	194/246/311	117	283	13	4	35%	6%	50	-1.7	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Brian Bocock 2014 · AAA	29	40→45	40	50	43	197/244/287	89	247	7	14	23%	6%	42	-2.3	212/255/298	86	285	6	9	26%	5%	50	-1.8	212/252/278	66	290	2	5	26%	5%	40	-1.7
✕Sharlon Schoop 2016 · AAA	29	43→44	37→40	42→45	41	207/249/275	68	269	5	4	25%	5%	41	-2.3	212/260/328	116	271	12	4	26%	5%	60	-1.0	204/256/330	126	257	14	0	26%	5%	55	-0.4
✕Khayyan Norfork 2018 · AA	29	47→44	37→40	47→50	42	223/279/290	67	299	4	7	26%	6%	58	-1.2	212/274/313	101	281	11	8	27%	7%	63	-0.9	137/205/239	102	157	17	4	27%	6%	12	-0.8
✕Anderson Machado 2010 · AAA	29	38→43	39→40	53→45	50	186/266/273	87	254	6	14	27%	10%	50	-1.8	208/278/299	91	288	5	7	27%	9%	60	-1.0	231/300/326	95	329	2	0	28%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Tim Smalling 2016 · AAA	28	43→42	38→40	45	41	208/254/286	78	263	6	10	23%	5%	46	-2.0	207/248/285	78	259	7	8	22%	4%	43	-2.2	186/217/223	38	230	4	0	21%	3%	10	-1.9
✕Gift Ngoepe 2019 · MLB	29	40	43→45	45→50	40	191/261/300	110	318	10	7	41%	8%	54	-1.4	198/267/326	128	355	14	10	44%	8%	63	-0.8	149/225/281	131	281	18	8	50%	8%	33	-0.8