Jason Matthews — OGILVIE

Jason MatthewsSS Charlotte Knights

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION196 act + 23 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%9

BABIP268

ISO48

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	25	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	349	301	63	16	1	2	36	110	9	6	1	209	312	289	601	80	319	32	10	280	76	-10	+1	—	—	+8	-0.2
2022	25	INTL	Auckland Tuatara	—	131	114	30	6	0	5	14	26	1	0	1	263	349	447	796	184	298	20	11	350	123	+4	-0	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	16	14	2	0	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	143	250	357	607	214	125	31	12	274	71	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	26	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	50	43	9	1	0	2	4	18	3	1	0	209	320	372	692	163	304	36	8	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	26	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	103	82	14	1	0	1	14	36	5	5	2	171	327	220	546	49	277	35	14	269	68	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	27	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	418	360	70	8	3	4	43	117	6	8	2	194	291	267	558	72	273	28	10	257	60	-20	+1	—	—	+9	-1.0
2024	27	INTL	Canberra Cavalry	—	159	137	40	12	0	4	16	36	3	6	2	292	378	467	845	175	371	23	10	370	136	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.1
2025	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	52	43	15	0	2	1	6	17	2	1	0	349	451	512	963	163	560	33	12	420	170	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	28	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	254	211	38	7	0	2	35	59	4	7	3	180	308	242	550	62	238	23	14	263	64	-11	+0	—	—	+6	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	349	315	47	10	1	1	22	155	9	6	1	149	225	197	422	48	280	44	6	198	20	-33	+1	—	—	+8	-2.5
2023	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	133	188	333	521	200	115	38	6	178	7	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	50	44	6	1	0	1	3	23	3	1	0	136	240	227	467	91	263	46	6	226	39	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	26	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	103	86	11	1	0	1	10	51	5	5	2	128	257	174	432	47	234	50	10	191	15	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2024	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	418	375	62	7	2	3	28	146	6	8	2	165	235	219	453	53	246	35	7	205	25	-37	+1	—	—	+9	-2.8
2025	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	52	45	14	0	2	1	4	20	2	1	0	311	392	467	859	156	512	38	8	343	118	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	28	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	254	222	36	6	0	2	24	71	4	7	3	162	256	216	472	54	220	28	9	218	34	-20	+0	—	—	+6	-1.5
2022	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	480	434	66	14	1	2	31	213	10	6	2	152	225	203	428	51	288	44	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	480	415	93	22	1	7	50	136	10	6	2	224	322	333	655	108	313	28	10	299	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	169	145	18	1	0	3	14	80	8	6	2	124	240	193	433	69	234	47	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	169	139	25	2	0	4	20	59	8	6	2	180	317	281	598	101	269	35	12	284	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	518	86	9	3	5	38	201	9	14	4	166	235	224	459	58	257	35	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	577	497	110	20	3	8	59	153	9	14	4	221	315	322	637	101	301	27	10	288	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	306	267	50	6	2	3	28	91	6	8	3	187	279	258	537	71	270	30	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA RAW	2 teams	—	306	254	53	7	2	3	41	76	6	8	3	209	332	287	620	79	284	25	13	289	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	480	436	66	14	1	2	31	213	10	6	2	151	225	202	427	50	280	44	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	169	145	18	1	0	3	14	80	8	6	2	124	240	193	433	69	231	47	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	525	86	9	3	5	38	201	9	14	4	164	235	221	456	57	246	35	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	306	269	50	6	2	3	28	91	6	8	3	186	279	257	536	71	270	30	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	169	145	18	1	0	3	14	80	8	6	2	124	240	193	433	69	231	47	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	577	525	86	9	3	5	38	201	9	14	4	164	235	221	456	57	246	35	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	306	269	50	6	2	3	28	91	6	8	3	186	279	257	536	71	270	30	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	CWS	—	196	167	30	4	0	4	19	73	6	2	4	180	286	275	562	96	286	37	10	254	58	-10	-1	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AA RAW	CWS	—	25	18	3	0	0	2	7	9	0	0	0	167	400	500	900	333	143	36	28	398	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	29	AAA RAW	CWS	—	171	140	31	5	0	3	21	52	6	2	4	221	347	321	669	100	326	30	12	307	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	29	AAA MLE	CWS	10%	23	21	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	190	261	238	499	48	267	35	9	244	52	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CWS	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						268	50	0	229	52	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CWS	—	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0							50	0	229	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	29	AAA MLE	CWS	—	219	188	34	5	0	4	21	81	6	2	4	181	284	271	555	90	288	37	10	253	57	-11	-1	+0	+2	+5	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	309	273	50	7	1	4	27	101	6	4	3	183	271	260	531	77	271	33	9	250	55	-16	-0	-2	+3	+7	-0.9
2027	30	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	84	75	13	2	0	1	7	27	2	1	1	173	262	240	502	67	271	32	8	236	55	-4	-0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	86	77	13	2	0	1	7	28	2	1	1	169	256	234	490	65	250	33	8	236	33	-5	-0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	99	15	0	8	53	212	15	8	8	170	257	237	494	67	251	33	8	236	33	-35	-2	-4	+7	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1864	1658	274	38	7	17	140	694	39	38	14	165	247	227	474	62	268	37	8	216	33	-18	-0	-2	+4	+7	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	95	13	2	6	49	242	14	13	5	164	247	225	472	61	266	37	8	216	33	-35	-1	-4	+7	+14	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jason Matthews (OGILVIE)	29	30	30	50	60	177/265/252	75	267	3	4	33%	9%	52	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	40	40	47→55	44	198/266/286	88	273	8	13	29%	8%	57	-1.8	201/268/296	95	308	8	10	35%	7%	61	-1.5	157/228/221	64	263	4	5	39%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Erick Castillo 2022 · AAA	29	43	37→30	47→30	46	206/278/276	70	258	5	5	21%	6%	61	-1.5	220/281/299	79	279	6	7	22%	5%	66	-1.1	220/269/235	15	284	0	0	21%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Pat Cantwell 2018 · AAA	28	41	37→30	45→40	38	199/254/266	67	281	5	9	30%	5%	49	-2.4	227/300/335	108	316	10	10	29%	7%	82	-0.0	253/339/383	130	321	13	6	24%	8%	105	+0.4
✕Pete Kozma 2017 · MLB	29	40→47	36→40	46→50	44	193/247/255	62	241	4	12	21%	6%	43	-2.8	195/246/278	83	246	6	9	22%	5%	47	-2.5	194/243/282	88	241	5	6	21%	5%	46	-1.7
✕Max McDowell 2023 · AAA	29	40→48	38→40	47→50	45	192/279/274	82	267	6	9	28%	8%	61	-1.5	193/276/290	97	277	11	6	32%	7%	63	-1.3	168/259/249	80	245	12	1	34%	7%	46	-1.0
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	42	41→45	51→50	42	202/266/300	98	286	8	10	31%	7%	61	-1.5	191/256/277	86	314	7	8	38%	7%	52	-2.2	135/207/179	44	258	2	2	44%	8%	11	-2.1
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2022 · AA	28	43	40→30	48→45	39	209/261/299	90	290	7	9	30%	5%	58	-1.7	221/293/296	75	282	5	8	22%	7%	70	-0.8	211/292/243	32	271	0	2	20%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Ali Solis 2017 · AAA	29	35	37→45	42→30	36	175/207/244	69	234	6	4	28%	3%	24	-4.2	200/236/307	107	282	11	6	32%	4%	51	-2.3	199/235/330	131	269	16	3	32%	4%	53	-1.0
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB	28	42	39→45	42→40	40	202/250/286	84	278	6	5	29%	6%	51	-2.3	223/280/308	85	291	5	5	23%	6%	68	-1.0	217/273/283	67	280	2	2	22%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Angelo Castellano 2023 · AAA	28	38→44	40→45	47→50	44	190/253/273	83	247	8	12	26%	7%	50	-2.3	219/282/345	126	268	14	14	23%	8%	78	-0.3	223/288/361	137	262	17	15	21%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Brantley Bell 2023 · AAA	28	42→43	39→40	52→55	41	202/253/286	85	276	6	14	28%	6%	52	-2.2	213/267/324	111	327	10	16	35%	6%	67	-1.1	174/220/259	85	298	5	25	41%	5%	32	-0.7
✕Scott Burcham 2021 · AA	28	41	39→30	46→50	41	197/252/280	83	281	7	11	31%	6%	51	-2.3	205/249/297	92	329	7	8	38%	5%	53	-2.1	175/200/230	55	307	2	0	43%	3%	17	-1.0
✕Enrique Trujillo 2015 · AAA	28	41	39→30	49→50	43	197/249/280	83	244	7	11	22%	5%	49	-2.4	237/287/312	75	291	6	16	19%	6%	71	-0.8	240/289/284	44	298	1	20	19%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Gift Ngoepe 2019 · MLB	29	39→42	41→45	45→50	39	185/255/284	99	314	8	7	41%	8%	53	-2.1	195/266/311	116	351	12	10	44%	8%	63	-1.3	146/218/250	104	280	12	8	49%	8%	30	-1.1
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2015 · AAA	29	42	41→40	47→50	37	211/245/301	90	271	10	8	26%	4%	53	-2.1	221/271/337	116	288	13	14	27%	6%	71	-0.8	213/263/314	101	266	12	24	24%	5%	59	-0.4
✕Dane Sardinha 2009 · MLB	30	34→32	41→40	49→30	37	178/218/271	93	240	10	4	30%	4%	36	-3.4	179/229/278	99	254	10	4	33%	5%	42	-2.9	153/213/233	79	221	9	0	34%	6%	23	-1.4
✕Sharlon Schoop 2016 · AAA	29	43→44	37→40	42→45	42	207/252/272	65	266	5	4	23%	5%	48	-2.5	209/259/309	100	269	9	4	25%	6%	60	-1.6	200/253/303	103	256	10	0	25%	6%	53	-0.7
✕Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez 2015 · AAA	30	43	39→40	43→50	39	206/256/291	85	281	6	9	28%	5%	54	-2.0	220/282/333	113	279	10	10	24%	7%	74	-0.5	211/265/300	89	265	7	6	22%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Jesús Sucre 2016 · MLB	28	43	38→40	43→40	42	206/239/279	74	247	6	4	20%	4%	45	-2.7	232/274/337	105	271	11	6	18%	4%	72	-0.7	239/278/332	93	274	11	3	17%	4%	68	-0.3
✕J.C. Boscan 2008 · AAA	28	43	37→40	44→30	47	203/275/270	67	279	5	6	28%	9%	57	-1.8	221/284/292	71	286	4	4	22%	7%	65	-1.2	222/282/286	64	286	4	2	22%	7%	60	-0.8