Jacob Melton — OGILVIE

Jacob MeltonLF Durham Bulls

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 25 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.5 · 2028

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .277 / .360

PA111

HR3

SB20

K%30

BB%8

MLB%55%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

37↗45

PWR

49↗57

SPD

60→60

FLD

52↗56

EYE

46↗52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$13M	+$9M
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+1.5	$13M	+$7M
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$19M		$52M	+$33M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	2 teams	103	93	21	5	0	4	7	38	2	5	2	.226	.294	.409	.703	.183	.327	37	7	.291	81	-2	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2023	22	A+	2 teams	450	419	75	11	1	15	30	133	1	46	7	.179	.236	.317	.553	.138	.221	30	7	.246	46	-27	+6	+0	+2	+13	-0.7
2024	23	AA	2 teams	443	414	90	18	2	13	22	134	3	30	4	.217	.262	.365	.627	.147	.285	30	5	.271	66	-17	+4	+0	+2	+13	0.1
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	228	205	43	15	1	5	21	68	1	19	5	.210	.286	.366	.652	.156	.286	30	9	.284	75	-6	+2	+1	+1	+6	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	82	70	14	7	1	1	9	40	0	17	0	.200	.291	.371	.663	.171	.406	49	11	.283	75	-2	+3	+0	+0	+2	0.4
ROS	25	MLB	TB	29	27	5	1	0	1	2	10	0	3	0	.185	.241	.333	.575	.148	.298	34	7	.285	76	-1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.1
TOT	25	MLB	TB	111	97	19	8	1	2	11	50	0	20	0	.196	.278	.361	.639	.165	.354	45	10	.284	75	-3	+4	+0	+0	+3	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 73%	TB	363	326	71	18	2	10	32	94	2	32	4	.218	.292	.377	.669	.160	.271	26	9	.299	87	-5	+5	+1	+1	+10	1.3
2028	27	MLB 89%	TB	383	344	76	19	2	11	34	99	2	33	4	.221	.295	.384	.678	.163	.273	26	9	.301	88	-5	+5	+1	+1	+11	1.4
2029	28	MLB 94%	TB	394	354	78	19	2	11	35	102	2	33	3	.220	.294	.379	.673	.158	.274	26	9	.301	89	-5	+5	+1	+1	+11	1.4
2030	29	MLB	TB	391	351	77	19	2	11	35	102	2	32	3	.219	.294	.379	.673	.160	.273	26	9	.300	87	-6	+5	+0	+1	+11	1.2
2031	30	MLB	TB	389	349	76	18	2	11	35	102	2	31	3	.218	.293	.375	.668	.158	.272	26	9	.296	85	-7	+5	-1	+1	+11	1.0
2032	31	MLB	TB	374	335	73	18	2	10	34	100	2	28	2	.218	.294	.373	.667	.155	.270	27	9	.293	82	-8	+5	-1	+1	+11	0.8
2033	32	MLB	TB	355	318	66	16	1	9	32	97	2	25	1	.208	.284	.349	.633	.142	.268	27	9	.288	78	-9	+5	-2	+1	+10	0.5
2034	33	MLB	TB	325	291	60	15	1	8	29	91	2	22	1	.206	.283	.347	.630	.141	.267	28	9	.282	74	-9	+4	-3	+1	+9	0.2
2035	34	MLB	TB	281	253	51	12	1	7	25	81	1	18	0	.202	.276	.340	.616	.138	.264	29	9	.276	69	-10	+4	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4508	4079	862	204	19	126	373	1251	24	357	39	.211	.281	.363	.645	.152	.270	28	8	.286	77	-117	+56	-6	+16	+128	7.8
/ 162G	—			650	588	124	29	3	18	54	180	3	51	6	.211	.280	.362	.642	.151	.270	28	8	.286	77	-17	+8	-1	+2	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	86	71	23	6	0	4	11	20	2	4	2	.324	.424	.577	1.001	.254	.396	23	13	.430	187	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2022	21	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	17	17	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	35	0	.000	-142	-5	+0	—	—	+0	-0.4
2023	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	56	52	13	1	0	5	4	16	0	5	0	.250	.304	.558	.861	.308	.258	29	7	.372	143	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	394	344	84	16	1	18	48	83	1	41	7	.244	.338	.453	.791	.209	.272	21	12	.351	127	+12	+5	—	—	+11	2.9
2024	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	192	173	45	10	0	5	13	48	1	11	0	.260	.311	.405	.715	.145	.331	25	7	.314	98	-0	+2	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	251	226	56	10	2	10	18	56	2	19	4	.248	.305	.442	.748	.195	.284	22	7	.325	107	+2	+2	—	—	+7	1.2
2025	24	MLB	Houston Astros	78	70	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	.157	.231	.186	.416	.029	.268	37	8	.200	11	-8	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4
2025	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	150	126	36	16	0	6	22	30	0	12	3	.286	.389	.556	.945	.270	.330	20	15	.407	170	+12	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			78	70	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	.157	.231	.186	.416	.029	.268	37	8	.200	11	-8	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Melton (OGILVIE)	25	37→45	49→57	60	52	.214/.277/.360	.146	.286	3	7	30%	8%	77	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2013 · AAA	25	44→54	46→55	58→60	39	.217/.273/.349	.132	.306	14	32	33%	6%	72	-0.2	.226/.270/.347	.121	.321	12	29	32%	5%	69	-0.4	.241/.302/.415	.174	.340	16	21	32%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→42	45	62→60	45	.206/.275/.333	.127	.274	13	35	29%	8%	69	-0.4	.213/.276/.339	.126	.288	13	35	29%	7%	70	-0.3	.215/.278/.338	.123	.290	14	35	30%	7%	68	-0.4
●Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	43→51	49→55	54→60	41	.214/.277/.365	.151	.314	17	28	36%	8%	78	+0.2	.219/.287/.390	.171	.322	20	28	36%	8%	89	+0.9	.209/.285/.389	.180	.302	22	30	36%	9%	86	+0.6
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	39→45	47→50	53→55	44	.190/.291/.330	.140	.299	15	30	38%	10%	76	+0.1	.208/.284/.359	.151	.307	18	24	36%	7%	80	+0.4	.210/.280/.364	.153	.306	19	24	36%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Michael Siani 2023 · MLB	24	41→44	44→45	59→60	46	.206/.273/.319	.114	.266	11	32	26%	8%	64	-0.8	.205/.276/.305	.100	.278	9	28	28%	8%	62	-0.9	.195/.271/.283	.088	.272	8	30	29%	9%	52	-1.2
✕DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 2023 · AA	26	44→54	44→50	59→60	38	.213/.266/.329	.116	.307	11	30	33%	6%	63	-0.8	.239/.292/.364	.125	.331	11	32	29%	6%	82	+0.5	.242/.297/.372	.130	.330	12	35	29%	6%	84	+0.5
✕Michael A. Taylor 2016 · MLB	25	46→51	47→55	56→60	40	.226/.283/.361	.136	.326	16	25	34%	7%	79	+0.3	.231/.284/.379	.148	.325	17	25	32%	7%	84	+0.6	.236/.294/.379	.143	.303	19	14	28%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Phillip Ervin 2018 · MLB	26	43→52	45→50	55	47	.214/.285/.337	.122	.265	13	27	24%	8%	74	-0.1	.236/.304/.377	.141	.298	14	19	24%	7%	92	+1.2	.229/.300/.377	.149	.293	15	17	26%	8%	87	+0.5
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	43→41	43→50	64→70	45	.209/.271/.325	.116	.275	9	35	26%	8%	63	-0.8	.210/.278/.335	.125	.278	13	49	28%	8%	70	-0.3	.208/.280/.353	.146	.256	18	61	26%	9%	72	-0.1
✕Lane Adams 2016 · AAA	26	45	45→50	57→60	43	.223/.278/.348	.125	.289	13	27	27%	6%	73	-0.1	.220/.275/.344	.124	.311	13	33	32%	6%	71	-0.3	.206/.266/.324	.118	.306	13	39	35%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Eric Patterson 2009 · MLB	26	49→56	44→50	58→60	45	.241/.290/.365	.124	.298	11	27	23%	6%	82	+0.5	.235/.289/.370	.135	.295	11	31	23%	7%	83	+0.6	.226/.282/.364	.139	.279	11	34	22%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Duke Ellis 2023 · AA	25	43→48	40→45	60→70	37	.206/.261/.293	.086	.312	8	36	35%	6%	52	-1.6	.215/.274/.308	.093	.323	8	51	34%	7%	61	-1.0	.237/.288/.340	.103	.333	10	91	30%	6%	72	-0.1
●Esteury Ruiz 2022 · AA	23	41→51	45→50	58→70	39	.208/.263/.333	.125	.285	13	34	31%	6%	63	-0.8	.254/.326/.391	.137	.316	14	59	23%	7%	105	+2.1	.264/.338/.396	.132	.327	13	74	22%	6%	108	+1.6
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2022 · AAA	26	43	45	55→60	41	.205/.276/.321	.115	.320	13	25	38%	8%	66	-0.6	.220/.296/.341	.121	.326	14	24	34%	9%	79	+0.3	.216/.284/.321	.105	.297	11	48	29%	8%	65	-0.3
●Jarren Duran 2022 · MLB	25	46→56	45→60	57→55	40	.225/.280/.345	.121	.306	12	25	30%	6%	73	-0.1	.244/.300/.411	.167	.317	15	25	27%	7%	99	+1.7	.265/.331/.455	.191	.331	16	27	23%	8%	119	+3.1
✕Adam Engel 2017 · AAA	25	44→48	40→50	61→60	40	.209/.265/.309	.100	.296	7	33	31%	6%	57	-1.2	.206/.263/.325	.119	.289	10	21	31%	6%	61	-1.0	.227/.287/.366	.138	.305	13	23	28%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Jared Oliva 2021 · MLB	25	46	41→50	56→65	42	.222/.284/.324	.101	.303	9	26	28%	6%	69	-0.4	.216/.268/.324	.108	.300	8	23	29%	5%	63	-0.9	.224/.292/.359	.135	.282	14	55	25%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Xavier Avery 2015 · MLB	25	48→53	41→45	56→55	43	.230/.284/.333	.103	.307	8	28	27%	7%	71	-0.3	.231/.283/.336	.105	.338	9	23	32%	7%	72	-0.2	.223/.283/.335	.112	.351	10	23	37%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Forrest Wall 2022 · AAA	26	46→56	41→45	59→70	41	.219/.278/.324	.105	.313	8	28	31%	7%	66	-0.6	.230/.292/.326	.096	.334	7	48	31%	7%	73	-0.1	.260/.332/.371	.111	.354	9	50	27%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Steward Berroa 2023 · AA	24	40→49	44→45	68→65	45	.197/.272/.318	.121	.284	11	45	33%	9%	63	-0.8	.217/.291/.328	.111	.321	10	46	32%	9%	73	-0.1	.222/.301/.321	.099	.325	9	52	31%	9%	73	-0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)