Jacob Melton — OGILVIE

Jacob MeltonLF Durham Bulls

Age 25 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 91 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .285 / .348

PA91

HR2

SB8

K%35

BB%8

BABIP324

ISO132

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1215.3%

xwOBA

100.240

POWER57

Barrel%

244.9

Avg EV

3788.1

Bat Spd

6372.7

EYE49

Chase%

5231.4%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.0

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$12M	+$9M
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$11M	+$6M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$11M		$37M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	103	93	21	5	0	4	7	39	2	5	2	226	294	409	703	183	333	38	7	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	103	88	23	6	0	4	11	26	2	5	2	261	353	466	819	205	322	25	11	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	450	417	75	11	1	12	32	137	1	46	7	180	240	297	537	118	235	30	7	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	450	396	97	17	1	23	52	99	1	46	7	245	333	467	801	222	270	22	12	353	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	443	414	93	19	2	14	22	133	3	30	4	225	269	382	650	157	293	30	5	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	443	399	101	20	2	15	31	104	3	30	4	253	308	426	734	173	304	23	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	228	206	45	17	1	5	20	68	1	19	5	218	291	383	674	165	299	30	9	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	228	196	47	16	1	6	28	59	1	19	5	240	335	423	758	184	311	26	12	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	TB	—	137	118	32	10	1	4	14	52	2	21	0	271	358	475	833	203	431	38	10	356	131	+5	+4	+0	+0	+4	1.4
YTD	25	AAA	TB	—	137	109	34	11	1	5	21	43	2	21	0	312	425	569	994	257	453	31	15	421	180	+12	+4	+0	+0	+4	2.1
ROS	25	AAA	TB	55%	91	83	18	5	0	2	7	32	1	8	1	216	285	348	633	132	339	35	8	307	93	-1	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.4
ROS	25	MLB	TB	55%	50	46	10	3	0	1	4	17	0	4	0	217	280	348	628	130	342	34	8	301	88	-1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.2
FULL	25	AAA	TB	—	187	164	42	13	1	5	18	69	2	25	0	256	337	439	776	183	398	37	10	341	119	+4	+5	+0	+1	+5	1.5
TOT	25	AAA	TB	—	228	201	50	15	1	6	21	84	3	29	1	248	328	422	751	174	385	37	9	336	116	+4	+5	+0	+1	+6	1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	TB	56%	363	328	76	19	2	11	29	124	3	29	3	232	300	402	702	171	333	34	8	310	95	-2	+5	+1	+1	+10	1.5
2028	27	MLB	TB	55%	383	345	80	20	2	11	32	128	3	30	3	232	303	397	700	165	329	33	8	311	96	-2	+5	+1	+1	+11	1.6
2029	28	MLB	TB	55%	394	355	83	20	2	12	33	130	3	30	3	234	304	403	707	169	326	33	8	310	96	-2	+5	-0	+1	+11	1.6
2027	26	MLB	TB	56%	203	183	43	11	1	6	16	69	2	16	2	235	303	404	708	169	336	34	8	304	91	-2	+2	+0	+1	+6	0.7
2028	27	MLB	TB	55%	211	190	44	11	1	6	17	70	2	17	2	232	301	395	696	163	332	33	8	305	91	-2	+3	+0	+1	+6	0.8
2029	28	MLB	TB	55%	215	193	45	11	1	6	18	71	2	16	2	233	305	394	699	161	329	33	8	304	91	-2	+2	-0	+1	+6	0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	757	682	153	36	4	19	61	256	7	60	8	224	294	372	667	148	327	34	8	293	83	-15	+9	+1	+3	+21	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	131	31	3	16	52	220	6	52	7	224	293	369	662	145	326	34	8	293	83	-13	+8	+1	+3	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	2455	2241	491	116	10	71	182	791	17	197	28	219	283	375	658	156	302	32	7	290	80	-54	+28	+2	+9	+70	5.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	131	31	3	19	48	209	5	52	7	221	285	379	664	159	304	32	7	290	80	-14	+8	+1	+2	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	86	71	23	6	0	4	11	20	2	4	2	324	424	577	1.001	254	396	23	13	430	187	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2022	21	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	—	17	17	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0							35	0		-142	-5	+0	—	—	+0	-0.4
2023	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	56	52	13	1	0	5	4	16	0	5	0	250	304	558	861	308	258	29	7	372	143	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	394	344	84	16	1	18	48	83	1	41	7	244	338	453	791	209	272	21	12	351	127	+12	+5	—	—	+11	2.9
2024	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	192	173	45	10	0	5	13	48	1	11	0	260	311	405	715	145	331	25	7	314	98	-0	+2	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	251	226	56	10	2	10	18	56	2	19	4	248	305	442	748	195	284	22	7	325	107	+2	+2	—	—	+7	1.2
2025	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	78	70	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	157	231	186	416	29	268	37	8	200	11	-8	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4
2025	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	150	126	36	16	0	6	22	30	0	12	3	286	389	556	945	270	330	20	15	407	170	+12	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	78	70	11	0	1	0	6	29	1	7	2	157	231	186	416	29	268	37	8	200	11	-8	+1	+1	+1	+2	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	6	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	16	25	252	281	387	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	810	21	63	224	290	376	-6	+1	1.1	1.1
	/162	664	17	51	224	290	376	-5.0	+1.2	0.9	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Melton (OGILVIE)	25	43→45	56→57	60	49	248/328/422	174	385	6	29	37%	9%	116	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2013 · AAA	25	42→52	46→55	58→60	39	210/267/336	126	302	13	32	34%	6%	66	-0.6	224/267/338	114	322	11	29	32%	5%	65	-0.7	237/298/404	167	340	15	21	33%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	43→53	48→55	55→60	41	213/274/360	148	314	16	30	36%	8%	76	+0.0	216/283/384	168	322	20	28	37%	8%	85	+0.7	207/280/385	178	304	21	30	37%	9%	82	+0.4
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	41→51	49→50	63→60	42	207/272/361	154	294	15	30	34%	8%	75	-0.0	258/320/395	137	318	13	34	22%	7%	103	+1.9	272/336/397	125	324	11	37	18%	7%	107	+1.9
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44	51→60	59→60	44	221/293/377	156	305	19	31	33%	8%	88	+0.9	219/300/386	167	319	20	25	35%	10%	93	+1.3	223/297/433	210	304	27	17	34%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	39→44	48→55	53→55	45	191/295/337	145	304	16	31	39%	10%	80	+0.4	218/290/385	167	318	20	24	36%	7%	89	+1.0	221/285/392	171	317	22	26	36%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→42	45	62→60	44	206/273/330	124	274	12	36	29%	8%	67	-0.5	214/277/336	122	294	13	34	30%	7%	70	-0.3	214/278/335	120	296	13	35	31%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	44→43	51→55	60	40	219/289/375	157	325	20	33	37%	8%	85	+0.7	199/279/367	168	305	21	33	39%	8%	80	+0.4	219/291/395	177	297	25	40	34%	7%	90	+0.7
✕J.P. Martínez 2023 · AAA	27	45→44	48→50	63→65	43	215/292/362	146	324	15	31	36%	9%	83	+0.6	213/293/343	130	319	12	37	34%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/324	120	306	11	45	34%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Greg Jones 2023 · AA	25	46→43	47→50	63→65	36	213/281/348	134	353	15	38	41%	6%	75	-0.0	202/263/321	119	366	13	41	45%	6%	60	-1.0	199/265/303	105	363	11	54	45%	6%	53	-0.7
✕Bradley Zimmer 2017 · AAA	24	45→51	48→50	57→60	42	218/296/359	142	329	15	29	36%	8%	85	+0.7	230/294/368	138	344	14	26	35%	7%	85	+0.7	231/308/356	126	350	13	28	35%	8%	86	+0.4
✕Michael A. Taylor 2015 · MLB	24	44→53	47→55	56→60	37	210/269/345	134	329	15	28	39%	7%	69	-0.4	229/282/372	143	329	17	24	34%	7%	81	+0.4	242/299/384	143	312	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2022 · AAA	26	44→54	40→45	61→70	40	211/271/310	99	308	7	33	32%	6%	60	-1.0	237/298/338	101	340	7	49	30%	7%	79	+0.3	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	43→42	49→50	58→60	47	220/294/377	156	286	16	28	28%	8%	88	+0.9	208/278/359	151	291	16	25	32%	8%	76	+0.1	191/261/336	146	274	15	24	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 2023 · AA	26	44→54	44→45	60	37	213/265/330	117	312	11	32	34%	6%	63	-0.8	240/293/363	123	333	11	32	29%	6%	83	+0.6	242/298/369	127	331	11	35	29%	6%	84	+0.4
✕Bubba Thompson 2023 · MLB	25	52→56	46→50	66→65	36	251/288/382	131	346	13	44	31%	4%	85	+0.7	225/268/324	99	324	9	38	32%	5%	63	-0.9	209/254/289	80	304	6	41	32%	5%	42	-1.2
●Josh Lowe 2023 · MLB	25	50→57	50→55	59→60	42	240/301/398	158	348	17	25	34%	8%	96	+1.5	250/305/424	174	336	19	29	30%	7%	105	+2.1	247/304/422	175	320	20	33	28%	7%	99	+1.3
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2017 · MLB	25	42→48	48→60	59→55	37	213/253/363	150	293	15	26	32%	5%	66	-0.6	212/255/352	140	301	13	20	33%	5%	63	-0.8	218/266/399	181	293	20	14	32%	6%	78	+0.1
●Esteury Ruiz 2022 · AA	23	43→53	49→50	59→70	38	218/273/363	145	295	16	35	31%	6%	76	+0.0	260/330/406	146	323	15	60	23%	6%	111	+2.5	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
●Jarren Duran 2022 · MLB	25	44→54	44→60	57→55	40	217/275/337	119	295	12	24	30%	6%	69	-0.4	243/300/409	166	315	15	26	26%	7%	98	+1.6	262/328/453	191	327	15	27	23%	8%	118	+3.0
●Jonathan Villar 2015 · MLB	24	45→55	42→50	62→65	43	217/279/322	105	311	9	39	32%	8%	66	-0.6	251/317/385	134	345	13	43	28%	9%	98	+1.6	266/336/411	146	353	16	44	27%	9%	111	+2.3