Jacob Melton

CF Durham Bulls
Age 26 L/L 6'2" / 208 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.239 · Ctrl thru 2032 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
Overview
AAAIL-6040-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAA/AAHOU443.253/.308/.426153075—.227/.271/.367
202524AAAHOU150.286/.389/.556612121—.261/.336/.493
202524MLBHOU78.157/.231/.1860721-0.4
202625AAA/ROKTB202.272/.372/.49782891—.231/.306/.399
2027PROJ49% MLB26MLBTB46.216/.283/.35914810.1
2028PROJ52% MLB27MLBTB110.216/.284/.35939810.1
2029PROJ53% MLB28MLBTB129.215/.284/.35639800.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.239First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV97
Speed97
BB%64
Chase%42
Whiff%13
K%11
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%
CompsKevin Mattison (age 26) · Rico Noel (age 26) · Terrance Gore (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†81
AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .283 / .359
PA46
HR1
K%35
BB%9
BABIP315
ISO119
MLB%49%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025
CONTACT
xAVG
100.177
POWER
Barrel%
244.9
Avg EV
3788.1
Bat Spd
6372.7
SPEED
Sprint
9029.0
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   0.239 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202221 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 8671 23604 11202 42 3244245771.001 254396 2313 430 120 — — — — — —
202221 ROKFCL Astros Blue — 1717 0000 060 10 350 -114 — — — — — —
202322 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 5652 13105 4160 50 250304558861 308258 297 372 61 — — — — — —
202322 A+Asheville Tourists — 394344 8416118 48831 417 244338453791 209272 2112 351 53 — — — — — —
202423 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 192173 451005 13481 110 260311405715 145331 257 314 71 — — — — — —
202423 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 251226 5610210 18562 194 248305442748 195284 227 325 78 — — — — — —
202524 MLBHouston Astros — 7870 11010 6291 72 157231186416 29268 378 200 21 -7 +1 +1 +1 +2 -0.4
202524 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 150126 361606 22300 123 286389556945 270330 2015 407 121 — — — — — —
202625 AAADurham Bulls — 186158 401217 22622 261 253350475824 222359 3312 358 81 — — — — — —
202625 ROKFCL Rays — 1611 6001 311 20 5456258181.443 273556 619 590 208 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 7870 11010 6291 72 157231186416 29268 378 200 21 -7 +1 +1 +1 +2 -0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202221 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 8675 20503 8282 42 267353453806 187358 339 346 120 — — — — — —
202221 ROK MLEFCL Astros Blue — 1717 0000 090 10 530 -114 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 5653 10103 3190 50 189232377610 189224 345 259 61 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 394365 6711113 281121 417 184244326570 142224 287 246 53 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 192180 42904 9571 110 233274350624 117314 305 273 71 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 251234 52928 13682 194 222269380649 158273 275 284 78 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 7871 11010 6291 72 155231183414 28268 378 199 21 -7 +1 +1 +1 +2 -0.4
202524 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 150134 351605 15360 123 261336493828 231313 2410 347 121 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 186166 351015 15742 261 211284373658 163325 408 288 81 — — — — — —
202625 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 1613 6001 211 20 4625626921.255 231416 612 475 208 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE2 teams — 10392 20503 8372 52 217294370664 152321 368 289 82 — — — — — —
202221 A RAW2 teams — 10388 23604 11262 52 261353466819 205322 2511 359 82 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLE2 teams — 450418 7712116 311301 467 184242333575 148224 297 248 54 — — — — — —
202322 A+ RAW2 teams — 450396 9717123 52991 467 245333467801 222270 2212 353 54 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 443414 9519212 221253 304 229273372645 143296 285 279 75 — — — — — —
202423 AA RAW2 teams — 443399 10120215 311043 304 253308426734 173304 237 320 75 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 228205 461615 21651 195 224300385685 161301 299 296 87 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAW2 teams — 228196 471616 28591 195 240335423758 184311 2612 336 87 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 202179 411016 17763 281 229307397703 168350 388 303 91 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAW2 teams — 202169 461218 25633 281 272372497869 225376 3112 376 91 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE2 teams — 10392 20503 8372 52 217294370664 152299 368 289 82 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLE2 teams — 450415 7712116 311301 467 186242335577 149224 297 248 54 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 443415 9519212 221253 304 229273371644 142291 285 279 75 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 228204 461615 21651 195 225300387687 162298 299 296 87 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 202180 411016 17763 281 228307394701 167332 388 303 91 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 443415 9519212 221253 304 229273371644 142291 285 279 75 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLE2 teams — 228204 461615 21651 195 225300387687 162298 299 296 87 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 202180 411016 17763 281 228307394701 167332 388 303 91 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLETB 49% 227206 441016 17792 183 215282361644 147312 357 287 81 -5 +2 +0 +1 +5 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXTB 49% 4642 9201 4160 41 216283359643 144315 359 287 81 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLETB 52% 214193 431016 17742 173 215283361644 146310 358 287 81 -5 +2 +0 +1 +5 0.3
202928 MLB MLETB 53% 245222 471116 19832 173 214283358641 144307 348 286 80 -6 +2 -0 +1 +5 0.2
202827 MLB CTXTB 52% 11099 21503 9381 92 216284359643 143313 358 287 81 -3 +1 +0 +0 +2 0.1
202928 MLB CTXTB 53% 129117 26613 10441 92 215284356640 141310 348 286 80 -3 +1 -0 +0 +3 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 317286 581126 251113 256 203273318591 115304 358 265 75 -13 +3 +0 +2 +7 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 11923412 512286 5112 203272317590 114306 358 265 75 -26 +5 +1 +3 +14 -0.3
Career— MLE — 19791809 38687756 14262315 16926 213276362638 149289 317 279 75 -20 +6 +1 +3 +14 0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 12729218 472055 569 214277360637 146291 327 279 75 -21 +6 +1 +3 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 186 PAwOBA .354 → .288 (−66)K% 33.3% → 40.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷1.000×1.200——40.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.83%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0188.31%
HBP% /PA1.08%—×0.940—×1.0181.03%
Singles /BIP20.83%÷1.000×0.930×1.018×1.01820.07%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷1.000×0.830×1.018×1.01810.75%
Triples /BIP1.04%÷1.000×0.970×1.018×1.0181.05%
Home runs /BIP7.29%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0185.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .354 → .288; ISO .222 → .170; BABIP .359 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 16 PAwOBA .575 → .475 (−100)K% 6.2% → 9.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.25%÷1.000×1.440——9.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.75%÷1.000×0.620—×0.94010.93%
HBP% /PA6.25%—×0.720—×0.9404.23%
Singles /BIP50.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.94038.54%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9407.33%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .575 → .475; ISO .273 → .243; BABIP .556 → .416. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 150 PAwOBA .399 → .347 (−52)K% 20.0% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.995×1.200——24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.67%÷1.056×0.690—×1.0339.90%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP14.58%÷1.012×0.930×1.010×1.03313.98%
Doubles /BIP16.67%÷0.891×0.830×1.010×1.03316.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.010×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷0.961×0.700—×1.0334.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .399 → .347; ISO .270 → .238; BABIP .330 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 251 PAwOBA .319 → .284 (−35)K% 22.3% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.31%÷1.003×1.220——27.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.17%÷0.974×0.700—×1.0125.22%
HBP% /PA0.80%—×0.870—×1.0120.70%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.968×0.920×1.013×1.01219.48%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷0.908×0.840×1.013×1.0125.58%
Triples /BIP1.18%÷0.908×0.940×1.013×1.0121.25%
Home runs /BIP5.88%÷0.970×0.800—×1.0124.91%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 82, 3B 82, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .319 → .284; ISO .195 → .169; BABIP .284 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 192 PAwOBA .307 → .273 (−33)K% 25.0% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.006×1.200——29.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.77%÷1.022×0.690—×1.0484.79%
HBP% /PA0.52%—×0.940—×1.0480.51%
Singles /BIP24.00%÷1.035×0.930×1.026×1.04823.18%
Doubles /BIP8.00%÷0.953×0.830×1.026×1.0487.49%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×1.026×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP4.00%÷0.903×0.700—×1.0483.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .307 → .273; ISO .145 → .124; BABIP .331 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 394 PAwOBA .341 → .246 (−95)K% 21.1% → 28.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.07%÷0.971×1.310——28.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.18%÷1.033×0.600—×0.9987.06%
HBP% /PA0.25%—×0.770—×0.9980.20%
Singles /BIP18.77%÷0.968×0.870×0.987×0.99816.63%
Doubles /BIP6.13%÷1.099×0.780×0.987×0.9984.29%
Triples /BIP0.38%÷0.980×0.850×0.987×0.9980.33%
Home runs /BIP6.90%÷1.218×0.880—×0.9984.97%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 96, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .341 → .246; ISO .209 → .146; BABIP .272 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 56 PAwOBA .360 → .259 (−102)K% 28.6% → 33.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.57%÷1.049×1.220——33.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷1.011×0.700—×1.0275.08%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP19.44%÷1.018×0.920—×1.02718.04%
Doubles /BIP2.78%÷0.975×0.840—×1.0272.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.058×0.940—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP13.89%÷1.322×0.800—×1.0278.63%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .259; ISO .308 → .188; BABIP .258 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 86 PAwOBA .423 → .346 (−77)K% 23.3% → 32.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.26%÷0.976×1.360——32.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.79%÷0.999×0.690——8.84%
HBP% /PA2.33%—×0.780——1.81%
Singles /BIP25.49%÷0.992×0.920——23.63%
Doubles /BIP11.76%÷0.930×0.830——10.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP7.84%÷0.949×0.800——6.61%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .423 → .346; ISO .254 → .209; BABIP .396 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).