Granden Goetzman
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAA/AA/ROK2 orgs | 207 | .259/.320/.413 | 4 | 14 | 58 | — | .209/.252/.320 |
| 2018 | 25 | AASTL | 181 | .244/.274/.413 | 3 | 3 | 45 | — | .201/.223/.339 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAHOU | 347 | .225/.307/.422 | 15 | 1 | 46 | — | .173/.231/.314 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 84 | 75 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 262 | 213 | 475 | 40 | 224 | 20 | 10 | 229 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | — | 52 | 47 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 298 | 353 | 468 | 821 | 170 | 325 | 13 | 8 | 356 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 78 | 72 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 153 | 218 | 236 | 454 | 83 | 179 | 19 | 5 | 211 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 185 | 174 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 213 | 259 | 287 | 547 | 75 | 300 | 29 | 3 | 250 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 249 | 235 | 74 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 53 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 315 | 351 | 515 | 866 | 200 | 381 | 21 | 4 | 378 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Brisbane Bandits | — | 194 | 174 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 293 | 359 | 529 | 888 | 236 | 323 | 19 | 7 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 358 | 329 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 66 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 240 | 294 | 322 | 616 | 82 | 290 | 18 | 6 | 277 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 334 | 313 | 76 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 243 | 284 | 361 | 645 | 118 | 296 | 21 | 5 | 286 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 16 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 467 | 500 | 467 | 967 | 700 | 31 | 6 | 440 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 73 | 70 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 314 | 342 | 429 | 771 | 114 | 404 | 23 | 4 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 95 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 225 | 274 | 438 | 712 | 213 | 266 | 23 | 6 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 39 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 395 | 300 | 695 | 67 | 280 | 15 | 18 | 326 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 181 | 172 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 274 | 413 | 687 | 169 | 298 | 22 | 4 | 297 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 347 | 306 | 69 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 225 | 307 | 422 | 729 | 196 | 261 | 26 | 10 | 320 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 84 | 78 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 115 | 179 | 141 | 320 | 26 | 172 | 29 | 6 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 52 | 48 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 250 | 294 | 396 | 690 | 146 | 258 | 19 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 78 | 73 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 137 | 192 | 219 | 411 | 82 | 164 | 27 | 4 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 185 | 175 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 166 | 211 | 223 | 434 | 57 | 284 | 42 | 3 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 249 | 240 | 61 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 73 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 254 | 278 | 408 | 687 | 154 | 336 | 29 | 2 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 358 | 335 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 96 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 203 | 246 | 278 | 523 | 75 | 268 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 334 | 318 | 70 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 87 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 220 | 251 | 321 | 572 | 101 | 282 | 26 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 16 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 312 | 312 | 312 | 625 | 548 | 44 | 0 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 73 | 71 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 268 | 288 | 366 | 654 | 99 | 360 | 27 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 95 | 91 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 187 | 221 | 341 | 562 | 154 | 239 | 28 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 39 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 152 | 263 | 182 | 445 | 30 | 210 | 23 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 181 | 174 | 35 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 223 | 339 | 563 | 138 | 257 | 26 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 347 | 318 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 113 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 173 | 231 | 314 | 545 | 142 | 215 | 33 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 84 | 78 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 115 | 179 | 141 | 320 | 26 | 167 | 29 | 6 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 84 | 75 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 262 | 213 | 475 | 40 | 224 | 20 | 10 | 229 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 52 | 48 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 250 | 294 | 396 | 690 | 146 | 289 | 19 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | Princeton Rays | — | 52 | 47 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 298 | 353 | 468 | 821 | 170 | 325 | 13 | 8 | 356 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 78 | 73 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 137 | 192 | 219 | 411 | 82 | 176 | 27 | 4 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 78 | 72 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 153 | 218 | 236 | 454 | 83 | 179 | 19 | 5 | 211 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 628 | 599 | 130 | 30 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 217 | 12 | 26 | 17 | 217 | 250 | 332 | 582 | 115 | 323 | 35 | 2 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 628 | 583 | 162 | 36 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 142 | 12 | 26 | 17 | 278 | 326 | 451 | 778 | 173 | 340 | 23 | 5 | 342 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 358 | 335 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 96 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 203 | 246 | 278 | 523 | 75 | 273 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 358 | 329 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 66 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 240 | 294 | 322 | 616 | 82 | 290 | 18 | 6 | 277 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 334 | 75 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 26 | 9 | 225 | 254 | 320 | 574 | 96 | 298 | 27 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 328 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 2 | 26 | 9 | 253 | 294 | 366 | 660 | 113 | 312 | 21 | 5 | 293 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 207 | 195 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 210 | 252 | 323 | 576 | 113 | 275 | 27 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 207 | 189 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 259 | 320 | 413 | 733 | 153 | 319 | 22 | 8 | 325 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 181 | 174 | 35 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 223 | 339 | 563 | 138 | 262 | 26 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 181 | 172 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 274 | 413 | 687 | 169 | 298 | 22 | 4 | 297 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 347 | 318 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 113 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 173 | 231 | 314 | 545 | 142 | 221 | 33 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 347 | 306 | 69 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 225 | 307 | 422 | 729 | 196 | 261 | 26 | 10 | 320 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 84 | 78 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 115 | 179 | 141 | 320 | 26 | 172 | 29 | 6 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 52 | 49 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 245 | 294 | 388 | 682 | 143 | 258 | 19 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 78 | 73 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 137 | 192 | 219 | 411 | 82 | 164 | 27 | 4 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 628 | 597 | 130 | 30 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 217 | 12 | 26 | 17 | 218 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 116 | 314 | 35 | 2 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 358 | 336 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 96 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 202 | 246 | 277 | 523 | 74 | 268 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 334 | 75 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 26 | 9 | 225 | 254 | 320 | 574 | 96 | 294 | 27 | 3 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 207 | 194 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 211 | 252 | 325 | 577 | 113 | 276 | 27 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 181 | 174 | 35 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 223 | 339 | 563 | 138 | 257 | 26 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 347 | 320 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 113 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 172 | 231 | 312 | 543 | 141 | 215 | 33 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2285 | 2154 | 435 | 92 | 19 | 34 | 90 | 677 | 22 | 103 | 37 | 202 | 241 | 310 | 551 | 108 | 275 | 30 | 4 | 237 | 47 | -145 | +6 | +0 | -24 | +50 | -11.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 613 | 123 | 26 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 193 | 6 | 29 | 11 | 201 | 240 | 308 | 549 | 108 | 273 | 30 | 4 | 237 | 47 | -41 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 347 PAwOBA .315 → .236 (−78)K% 25.6% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.65% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.51% | ÷1.043 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.97% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 15.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷0.949 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.91% | ÷1.067 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 5.07% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .236; ISO .196 → .144; BABIP .261 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 181 PAwOBA .291 → .234 (−56)K% 21.5% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.55% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.87% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 2.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.29% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 15.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷0.973 | ×0.840 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.01% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 3.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.215 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .291 → .234; ISO .169 → .134; BABIP .298 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 95 PAwOBA .301 → .244 (−58)K% 23.2% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.16% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.93% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 13.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷0.986 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.146 | ×0.880 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 3.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.55% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .301 → .244; ISO .213 → .168; BABIP .266 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAADurham Bulls · 73 PAwOBA .333 → .280 (−53)K% 23.3% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.29% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.11% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 2.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.08% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 28.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 4.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.022 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.033 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.56% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 104, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .333 → .280; ISO .114 → .094; BABIP .404 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Rays · 39 PAwOBA .327 → .231 (−97)K% 15.4% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 10.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 16.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .327 → .231; ISO .067 → .048; BABIP .280 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 334 PAwOBA .280 → .243 (−36)K% 21.0% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.96% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.79% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.81% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷1.040 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 5.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.994 | ×0.880 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.081 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 99, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .280 → .243; ISO .118 → .096; BABIP .296 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKGCL Rays · 16 PAwOBA .411 → .283 (−128)K% 31.2% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 70.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 54.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .411 → .283; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .700 → .548. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 358 PAwOBA .272 → .230 (−41)K% 18.4% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.44% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.42% | ÷0.994 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.43% | ÷0.976 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.08% | ÷0.978 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.822 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .272 → .230; ISO .082 → .074; BABIP .290 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).