Connor Foley — OGILVIE

Connor Foley P Visalia Rawhide

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%22.7%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	5	14	69	20	15	0	100%	2.8	21.4%	25.7%	-4.2%	0.0%	7.07	4.54	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	5	14	69	20	15	0	100%	2.8	21.4%	25.7%	-4.2%	0.0%	7.07	4.54	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	5	5	14	69	20	15	0	100%	2.8	29.0%	21.7%	7.2%	0.0%	7.07	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	11	11	26	115	46	20	3	100%	2.4	29.1%	20.1%	9.0%	1.4%	6.92	3.94	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	11	11	26	115	46	20	3	100%	2.4	29.1%	20.1%	9.0%	1.4%	6.92	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	ARI	3	3	5	21	9	4	2	100%	1.7	42.9%	19.0%	23.8%	9.5%	9.00	7.12	—
2026	23	A RAW	ARI	8	8	21	94	37	16	1	100%	2.6	39.4%	17.0%	22.3%	1.1%	6.43	2.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	5	5	26	110	26	18	3	100%	5.2	23.3%	16.0%	7.3%	2.9%	5.24	5.12	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	11	46	11	7	1	100%	5.5	23.3%	16.0%	7.3%	2.9%	5.24	5.12	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	47	11	8	1	100%	5.6	23.3%	16.0%	7.3%	2.9%	5.24	4.73	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	197	143	18	100%	5.6	23.3%	16.0%	7.3%	2.9%	5.24	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		16	16	40	184	48	41	2	100%	2.5	26.2%	22.2%	4.1%	0.9%	6.97	4.17	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	80	200	920	241	204	8	100%	2.5	26.2%	22.2%	4.1%	0.9%	6.97	4.17	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Foley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	22.7%	18.9%	2.9%	—	5.12	23.3%	7.3%	26	-0.43	—	—	—
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	83
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	78
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	75
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	74
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	74
Landon Sims R 2023 · 6.04 FIP	22	SP	6.04	19.3%	12.9%	5.3%	.302	3.99	19.9%	7.8%	168	-2.05	3.35	184	72
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	72
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	70
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	70
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	70
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	69
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	68
Alex McFarlane R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	3.95	20.5%	6.9%	123	-0.96	3.52	173	68
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	68
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	67
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	67
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	66
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	23.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	4.02	18.6%	7.6%	240	-0.37	3.71	535	66
Cam Schlittler R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	22	SP	4.80	17.6%	13.8%	2.6%	.330	3.01	27.8%	19.2%	447	-1.79	2.38	488	65
Carlos Tavera R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	25.4%	15.9%	4.0%	.285	5.36	18.9%	3.9%	180	+0.22	3.91	263	65