Alex McFarlane — OGILVIE

Alex McFarlane P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%21.3%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.2

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	3	3	8	36	12	3	1	100%	2.7	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	2.8%	9.00	2.87	—
2022	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	3	3	8	36	12	3	1	100%	2.7	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	2.8%	9.00	2.85	—
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	16	16	50	233	69	38	4	100%	3.1	21.9%	19.2%	2.7%	2.2%	5.72	4.91	—
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	16	16	50	233	69	38	4	100%	3.1	21.9%	19.2%	2.7%	2.2%	5.72	4.91	—
2023	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	16	16	50	233	69	38	4	100%	3.1	29.6%	16.3%	13.3%	1.7%	5.72	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	80	346	82	43	4	64%	2.9	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	1.5%	4.84	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	80	346	82	43	4	64%	2.9	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	1.5%	4.84	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	18	80	346	82	43	4	64%	2.9	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	1.2%	4.84	3.31	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	14	56	11	5	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	1.8%	2.63	3.54	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	50	0	53	216	66	25	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	12.5%	12.2%	1.7%	2.04	3.52	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	50	0	53	216	66	25	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	12.5%	12.2%	1.7%	2.04	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	PHI	32	0	35	143	47	18	2	0%	1.1	32.9%	12.6%	20.3%	1.4%	2.06	2.69	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	PHI	4	0	4	17	8	2	0	0%	1.1	47.1%	11.8%	35.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.62	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	PHI	14	0	14	56	11	5	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	1.8%	2.63	3.55	+0.2
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	PHI	14	0	14	56	11	5	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	1.8%	2.63	3.55	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	15.2%	6.2%	2.6%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	15.2%	6.2%	2.6%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	59	241	71	29	4	—	—	29.6%	11.9%	17.7%	1.5%	2.30	3.63	+0.7
FULL	25	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	20	82	71	29	4	—	—	86.5%	34.9%	51.6%	4.4%	6.93	2.65	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	69	0	72	304	65	43	8	0%	1.0	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	2.6%	4.92	4.89	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	71	299	65	41	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.88	4.89	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	66	0	69	290	63	40	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	2.8%	4.91	4.94	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	63	0	66	277	59	38	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.00	5.06	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	59	0	62	261	55	37	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	14.1%	6.9%	3.2%	5.14	5.24	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	65	0	68	287	62	41	8	0%	1.0	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	2.6%	4.92	4.89	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	64	0	67	283	61	39	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.88	4.89	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	62	0	65	274	59	38	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	2.8%	4.91	4.94	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	59	0	62	262	56	36	8	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.00	5.06	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	56	0	59	249	52	35	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	14.1%	6.9%	3.2%	5.14	5.24	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		326	0	342	1441	308	198	40	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.8%	7.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	843	180	116	23	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.8%	7.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		97	37	191	831	178	124	15	38%	2.0	21.4%	15.0%	6.4%	1.8%	4.47	4.18	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	39	200	869	186	130	16	38%	2.0	21.4%	15.0%	6.4%	1.8%	4.47	4.18	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex McFarlane (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	20.4%	15.6%	2.7%	—	4.91	21.5%	7.6%	212	-0.29	—	—	—
Jairo Díaz R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.33	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.20	2.99	190	75
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	73
Brad Goldberg R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SU	4.07	18.2%	11.7%	1.9%	.333	3.86	21.4%	7.2%	139	-0.21	3.14	197	73
Ryne Stanek R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	21.6%	12.1%	2.2%	.296	3.59	29.3%	19.0%	208	-0.43	2.96	767	73
Ryan Helsley R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	22.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.279	3.30	31.1%	21.0%	124	-0.77	1.88	703	73
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	72
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	72
Ariel Hernández R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	24.0%	18.9%	2.1%	.229	3.85	19.1%	2.2%	55	-0.74	3.76	192	71
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	71
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	71
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	70
Michael Petersen R 2019 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	21.8%	17.0%	2.0%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	399	70
Sean Reynolds R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	19.6%	15.8%	1.7%	.315	4.29	20.2%	6.6%	109	-0.10	3.62	258	70
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	70
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	69
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	69
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	68
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	68
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	68
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	21.2%	14.2%	1.09	5.01
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04