Alex McFarlane
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%9.7%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 3 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 16 | 16 | 50 | 233 | 69 | 38 | 4 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | 5.72 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 28 | 18 | 80 | 346 | 82 | 43 | 4 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 4.84 | 4.23 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 17 | 3 | 24.4% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 65 | 34 | 8 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 65 | 33 | 8 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 64 | 32 | 8 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 62 | 32 | 8 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 57 | 30 | 8 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 54 | 30 | 8 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 51 | 29 | 8 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 44 | 27 | 7 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 40 | 25 | 7 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 37 | 143 | 636 | 133 | 100 | 11 | 21.0% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 5.21 | 4.30 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 52 | 200 | 887 | 186 | 140 | 15 | 21.0% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 5.21 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex McFarlane (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.56 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 211 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 92 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .305 | 7.30 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.32 | 3.48 | 153 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 87 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 87 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 86 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 86 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.1% | .286 | 3.56 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.13 | 2.48 | 138 | 85 |
| Trey Benton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 23.8% | 13.9% | 3.0% | .366 | 2.92 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 31 | -1.61 | 2.92 | 139 | 85 |
| Logan Boyer R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 85 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 84 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 84 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 83 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.44 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .150 | 5.55 | 21.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +1.11 | 3.94 | 205 | 83 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 83 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.41 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 47 | +0.81 | 3.60 | 154 | 83 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.86 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.29 | 2.95 | 246 | 83 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 83 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $5M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.