Alex McFarlane

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	APHI	16	16	50	5.72	3.66	29.6%	16.3%	—	K 21.9% · BB 19.2% · FIP 4.91
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	18	80	4.84	3.31	23.7%	12.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.23
2026	25	MIX3 levels	55	0	58	2.16	2.81	31.4%	11.3%	1.2	K 26.2% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.47
2027PROJ	26	MLBPHI	45	0	47	4.35	4.49	25.5%	13.7%	0.0
2028PROJ77% MLB	27	MLBPHI	43	0	45	4.44	4.51	25.3%	13.3%	0.0
2029PROJ82% MLB	28	MLBPHI	40	0	42	4.52	4.58	25.0%	13.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs68

K%67

Form3.00 ERA (proj 4.35) · K 26.7% (proj 25.5%) · BB 9.3% (proj 13.7%) ▲ last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBrian Ellington (age 26) · Sean Reynolds (age 26) · Daniel Corcino (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.35

FIP4.49

K%25.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.4

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	3	3	8	36	12	3	1	100%	2.7	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	2.8%	9.00	2.87	—
2022	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	3	3	8	36	12	3	1	100%	2.7	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	2.8%	9.00	2.85	—
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	16	16	50	233	69	38	4	100%	3.1	21.9%	19.2%	2.7%	2.2%	5.72	4.91	—
2023	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	16	16	50	233	69	38	4	100%	3.1	29.6%	16.3%	13.3%	1.7%	5.72	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	80	346	82	43	4	64%	2.9	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	1.5%	4.84	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	18	80	346	82	43	4	64%	2.9	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	1.5%	4.84	4.23	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	18	80	346	82	43	4	64%	2.9	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	1.2%	4.84	3.31	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	58	239	75	27	4	0%	1.1	26.2%	12.1%	14.1%	1.9%	2.16	3.47	+0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	58	239	75	27	4	0%	1.1	26.2%	12.1%	14.1%	1.9%	2.16	3.47	+0.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	0	58	239	75	27	4	0%	1.1	31.4%	11.3%	20.1%	1.7%	2.16	2.81	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	0	19	79	20	7	2	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.9%	16.5%	2.5%	2.84	3.47	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PHI	45	0	47	198	51	27	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	13.7%	11.9%	2.6%	4.35	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55	0	58	244	62	32	7	0%	1.1	25.3%	13.3%	12.0%	2.7%	4.44	4.51	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	48	0	51	214	54	28	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.2%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	43	0	45	191	47	25	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	13.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.73	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	38	0	40	170	40	23	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.92	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	43	0	45	190	48	25	5	0%	1.0	25.3%	13.3%	12.0%	2.7%	4.44	4.51	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	40	0	42	177	44	23	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.2%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	39	21	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	13.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.73	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	33	0	35	148	35	20	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	0	179	752	186	96	22	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.20	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	843	208	108	25	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.8%	11.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		102	37	197	854	187	126	16	36%	1.9	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	4.44	4.15	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	38	200	868	190	128	16	36%	1.9	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	4.44	4.15	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 35 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.53 (+0.84)K% 32.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.87%	—	×0.810	26.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.59%	—	×1.100	13.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.68%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 74 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.23 (+0.82)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.05%	—	×0.770	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.46%	—	×1.150	14.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.045	×1.250	1.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 6 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.58 (+0.67)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.810	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.100	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 50 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.91 (+1.30)K% 29.6% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.61%	—	×0.740	21.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.31%	—	×1.180	19.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 8 IPFIP 2.87 → 4.24 (+1.38)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.180	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.61%

Result: FIP 2.87 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex McFarlane (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.60	24.9%	11.7%	154	+0.11	—	—	—
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	72
Sean Reynolds R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	23.0%	11.8%	1.6%	.367	4.93	18.5%	3.0%	55	+1.38	3.55	258	69
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	68
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	68
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	68
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	68
José A. Váldez R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.22	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.28	4.02	328	68
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	67
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	67
Yosver Zulueta R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	26	SU	3.35	24.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.339	4.16	24.0%	12.2%	105	+0.81	3.19	290	67
Seth Halvorsen R 2024 · 3.82 FIP	24	SU	3.82	21.0%	12.5%	1.7%	.330	4.30	21.3%	11.0%	96	+0.48	3.82	131	67
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	67
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	67
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	67
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	67
Seranthony Domínguez R 2021 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	22.3%	13.3%	1.8%	.316	3.87	25.9%	16.6%	160	-0.03	2.38	490	66
Fernando Rodney R 2003 · 3.34 FIP	26	SU	3.34	23.1%	11.2%	1.4%	.359	3.63	21.9%	12.9%	116	+0.29	1.85	933	66
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	66
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	66
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	24.9%	13.1%	1.08	4.41
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*