Sean Reynolds
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'8" / 250 lbs
AAA
ERA5.06
FIP4.88
xFIP5.22
SIERA4.89
K%21.3%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%7.4%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p3222.7%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.379
SL+1.7 (43%)
CH (6%)
FB-1.6 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 19 | 0 | 32 | 149 | 37 | 23 | 0 | 18.4% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 3.09 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 50 | 0 | 52 | 223 | 66 | 24 | 5 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 55 | 0 | 65 | 306 | 73 | 50 | 5 | 20.1% | 17.4% | 1.7% | 5.43 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 48 | 3 | 65 | 300 | 88 | 38 | 4 | 23.5% | 13.8% | 1.6% | 5.26 | 3.76 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 46 | 1 | 55 | 237 | 47 | 39 | 6 | 18.7% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 4.07 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 53 | 32 | 7 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 51 | 31 | 7 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 5.03 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 48 | 29 | 7 | 21.7% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 21.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 5.02 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 42 | 27 | 7 | 20.6% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 39 | 26 | 6 | 20.0% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 36 | 25 | 6 | 19.3% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 18.5% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 5.64 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 218 | 4 | 269 | 1215 | 256 | 189 | 22 | 21.1% | 15.6% | 1.8% | 4.58 | 4.30 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 3 | 200 | 902 | 190 | 140 | 16 | 21.1% | 15.6% | 1.8% | 4.58 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Reynolds (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.01 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 157 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 81 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 77 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.48 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.14 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.34 | 2.39 | 332 | 76 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 76 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 76 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.21 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.19 | 4.02 | 328 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 75 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.10 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 142 | 75 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 74 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.48 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 118 | -0.77 | 1.58 | 544 | 74 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.24 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.36 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -0.88 | 2.51 | 520 | 74 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.63 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .219 | 5.06 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.43 | 1.95 | 523 | 74 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 74 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 74 |
| Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.17 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.65 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 116 | -1.52 | 2.98 | 606 | 74 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.