Chen-Wei Lin
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 24
RHP
6'7" / 188 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%21.6%
BB%15.1%
K-BB%6.6%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 16 | 80 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 2.7 | 21.3% | 22.0% | -0.7% | 4.3% | 6.06 | 6.46 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 16 | 80 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 2.7 | 26.2% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 6.06 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 22 | 116 | 462 | 123 | 36 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 0.8% | 2.79 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 22 | 116 | 462 | 123 | 36 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 0.6% | 2.79 | 2.25 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 50 | 223 | 70 | 39 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 5.54 | 4.40 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 50 | 223 | 70 | 39 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 31.4% | 17.5% | 13.9% | 1.3% | 5.54 | 3.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 16 | 13 | 66 | 295 | 82 | 39 | 6 | 81% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 14.5% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 60 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.6% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 132 | 574 | 142 | 81 | 13 | — | — | 24.8% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 4.65 | 4.67 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.6% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 128 | 78 | 15 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.74 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 138 | 581 | 129 | 75 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 573 | 127 | 73 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 132 | 555 | 123 | 71 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 56 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 86 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.68 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 99 | 57 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 104 | 60 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 62 | 370 | 1562 | 346 | 202 | 42 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 109 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 58 | 249 | 1060 | 221 | 147 | 17 | 95% | 4.1 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 3.98 | 3.95 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 47 | 200 | 851 | 178 | 118 | 13 | 95% | 4.1 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 3.98 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chen-Wei Lin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 21.6% | 15.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.70 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 411 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 85 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 83 |
| Jaime Schultz R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.56 | 23.2% | 16.9% | 2.3% | .297 | 3.80 | 27.5% | 14.7% | 209 | -0.76 | 2.14 | 391 | 82 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 79 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 79 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 79 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 78 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 78 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.87 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 4.4% | .276 | 6.93 | 18.4% | -4.0% | 47 | +1.06 | 4.01 | 412 | 78 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 78 |
| Carlos Hernandez R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 123 | 78 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 77 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.0% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .344 | 5.55 | 31.7% | 18.3% | 18 | +0.49 | 4.72 | 283 | 77 |
| Pedro Payano R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.77 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.48 | 19.2% | 5.3% | 185 | -0.29 | 2.51 | 707 | 77 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 77 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 76 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.44 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 1.3% | .248 | 5.06 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 84 | +0.62 | 4.44 | 326 | 76 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 76 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 136 | 22.1% | 13.4% | 1.02 | 4.78 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |