Chen-Wei Lin

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1087ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASTL	22	22	116	2.79	2.25	26.6%	7.8%	—	K 19.7% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.05
2025	23	MIX3 levels	17	17	50	5.54	3.42	31.4%	17.5%	—	K 21.0% · BB 19.7% · FIP 4.30
2026	24	AASTL	26	17	103	5.00	3.68	26.0%	11.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	1	1	3	4.95	4.95	22.0%	14.1%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBSTL	6	6	34	4.76	4.75	22.2%	13.4%	0.2
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBSTL	8	8	47	4.73	4.74	22.2%	13.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Arb-3$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 3.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 85%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Paxton Schultz (age 25) · J.P. France (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%22.0%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	21.3%	22.0%	-0.7%	4.4%	6.06	6.48	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	26.2%	15.0%	11.3%	2.5%	6.06	4.32	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	0.8%	2.79	3.05	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	0.8%	2.79	3.05	—
2024	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	0.6%	2.79	2.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	21.0%	19.7%	1.2%	0.9%	5.54	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	21.0%	19.7%	1.2%	0.9%	5.54	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	31.4%	17.5%	13.9%	1.3%	5.54	3.42	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.48	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.48	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	26.0%	11.2%	14.8%	2.4%	5.00	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	458	102	61	13	100%	6.0	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.86	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	408	91	53	12	100%	6.0	22.2%	13.1%	9.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.85	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	378	83	49	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.9%	9.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	83	349	76	45	11	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	3.2%	4.95	5.02	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	75	315	68	42	11	100%	6.2	21.5%	13.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.10	5.20	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	34	144	32	19	4	100%	5.7	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	44	26	5	100%	5.9	22.2%	13.1%	9.1%	2.7%	4.73	4.74	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	55	232	51	30	6	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.9%	9.1%	2.8%	4.75	4.79	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	53	31	7	100%	5.7	21.8%	13.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	51	32	7	100%	6.2	21.5%	13.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.07	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	250	1054	231	139	30	100%	5.9	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.82	4.48	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	111	24	100%	6.0	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.82	4.48	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		71	62	285	1219	250	160	22	87%	4.0	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	854	176	112	16	87%	4.0	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 103 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.48 (+0.83)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.99%	—	×0.810	21.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.23%	—	×1.100	12.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 39 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.30 (+1.00)K% 27.2% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.22%	—	×0.770	20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.16%	—	×1.150	19.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷0.857	×1.250	0.86%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 10 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.35 (+1.10)K% 41.7% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.810	33.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×1.100	20.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.105	×1.200	4.52%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 116 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.05 (+0.85)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.62%	—	×0.740	19.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.180	9.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 12 IPFIP 4.89 → 6.48 (+1.59)K% 28.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.740	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.64%	—	×1.180	22.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.010	×1.300	4.36%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 6.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 5 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.76 (+0.67)K% 19.0% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.680	12.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chen-Wei Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.87	22.2%	9.0%	295	-0.08	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	84
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	80
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	80
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	80
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	80
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	79
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	78
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	78
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	78
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	76
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	76
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	76
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	98	22.0%	13.4%	1.15	4.92
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Vic Albury ('73-'76, 0 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.1%*	13.2%*	1.31*	4.60*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42