Chen-Wei Lin — OGILVIE

Chen-Wei Lin P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 188 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%21.6%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	21.3%	22.0%	-0.7%	4.4%	6.06	6.48	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	21.3%	22.0%	-0.7%	4.4%	6.06	6.48	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	16	80	21	12	2	100%	2.7	26.2%	15.0%	11.3%	2.5%	6.06	4.32	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	0.8%	2.79	3.05	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	0.8%	2.79	3.05	—
2024	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	116	462	123	36	3	100%	5.3	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	0.6%	2.79	2.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	21.0%	19.7%	1.2%	0.9%	5.54	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	21.0%	19.7%	1.2%	0.9%	5.54	4.30	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	50	223	70	39	3	100%	3.0	31.4%	17.5%	13.9%	1.3%	5.54	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.48	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	3.9	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	STL	26	17	103	454	118	51	11	65%	4.0	26.0%	11.2%	14.8%	2.4%	5.00	3.66	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	11	48	10	7	1	100%	5.7	21.6%	14.8%	6.9%	2.5%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	114	502	128	58	12	—	—	25.6%	11.6%	14.0%	2.4%	4.99	4.53	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	138	581	128	77	15	100%	5.7	22.1%	13.2%	8.8%	2.6%	4.76	4.70	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	138	581	129	74	15	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.6%	4.68	4.65	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	136	573	127	72	15	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	2.7%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	132	555	123	70	15	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.74	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	126	530	116	68	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.8%	9.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.87	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	118	499	107	66	16	100%	5.9	21.5%	13.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.95	5.05	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	56	33	6	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.2%	8.8%	2.4%	4.66	4.60	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	92	388	86	50	9	100%	6.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.4%	4.58	4.55	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	105	443	99	56	11	100%	5.8	22.2%	12.6%	9.6%	2.5%	4.56	4.56	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	111	469	104	59	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	2.6%	4.59	4.63	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	110	464	102	60	13	100%	6.1	21.9%	12.8%	9.0%	2.7%	4.69	4.76	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	106	448	96	59	13	100%	5.9	21.5%	13.2%	8.4%	2.9%	4.83	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	585	2470	543	317	64	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.65	4.30	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	186	108	22	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.65	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		71	62	285	1219	250	160	22	87%	4.0	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	854	176	112	16	87%	4.0	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chen-Wei Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	21.6%	14.8%	2.5%	—	4.67	22.2%	9.3%	411	-0.25	—	—	—
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	80
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	80
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	78
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	78
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	77
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	77
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	77
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	77
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	77
Brett Daniels R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.46	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.51	3.95	270	77
Pedro Payano R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	20.1%	13.5%	3.1%	.291	4.59	19.2%	5.3%	185	-0.23	2.54	707	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	77
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	76
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	76
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	76
Jeff Thompson R 2016 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	15.2%	15.2%	1.3%	.278	4.35	16.7%	2.4%	83	-0.09	3.67	321	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	132	22.0%	13.1%	1.06	4.78
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97