Cody Bowker

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 212 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#305ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	24	22	95	4.53	2.86	32.3%	7.6%	—	K 24.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.06
2027PROJ	23	MLBPHI	—	—	0	4.32	4.32	24.1%	9.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBPHI	6	6	33	4.38	4.34	24.5%	8.7%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBPHI	8	8	49	4.33	4.29	24.7%	8.5%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 9.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 81%

CompsCody Laweryson (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%24.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	95	396	128	30	11	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	95	396	128	30	11	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	95	396	128	30	11	92%	4.0	32.3%	7.6%	24.7%	2.8%	4.53	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	78	329	80	29	10	100%	5.6	24.5%	8.7%	15.7%	3.1%	4.26	4.22	+1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	75	315	78	27	10	100%	5.7	24.7%	8.5%	16.1%	3.1%	4.21	4.17	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	74	314	78	27	10	100%	6.2	24.7%	8.5%	16.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.15	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	73	307	76	26	10	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	3.1%	4.18	4.19	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	69	293	72	25	9	100%	5.8	24.5%	8.7%	15.9%	3.2%	4.24	4.27	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	64	272	66	24	9	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	3.4%	4.34	4.41	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	65	273	71	23	10	100%	5.9	25.9%	8.4%	17.5%	3.6%	4.32	4.31	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	57	242	62	21	9	100%	5.7	25.5%	8.7%	16.8%	3.8%	4.44	4.51	+0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	50	210	53	19	8	100%	6.2	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	4.0%	4.62	4.74	+0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	42	179	44	17	8	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	4.3%	4.84	4.99	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	33	139	34	12	5	100%	5.5	24.5%	8.7%	15.7%	3.3%	4.38	4.34	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	49	207	51	18	7	100%	6.1	24.7%	8.5%	16.1%	3.3%	4.33	4.29	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	59	249	62	21	8	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.5%	16.3%	3.3%	4.29	4.27	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	62	262	65	22	9	100%	6.2	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	3.3%	4.30	4.31	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	62	262	64	23	9	100%	6.2	24.5%	8.7%	15.9%	3.5%	4.37	4.40	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	59	249	60	22	9	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	3.6%	4.47	4.54	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	60	253	66	21	10	100%	6.0	25.9%	8.4%	17.5%	3.8%	4.46	4.45	+0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	53	224	57	20	9	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.7%	16.8%	4.1%	4.59	4.66	+0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	47	198	50	18	9	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	4.3%	4.78	4.90	+0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	42	16	8	100%	5.7	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	4.6%	5.01	5.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	524	2211	550	193	82	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.7%	16.1%	3.7%	4.48	4.13	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	74	31	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.7%	16.1%	3.7%	4.48	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		24	22	95	396	97	35	14	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	831	205	73	29	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 40 IPFIP 3.35 → 5.04 (+1.69)K% 37.9% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.87%	—	×0.740	28.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.83%	—	×1.180	13.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.55%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 36 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.35 (+0.76)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.45%	—	×0.770	22.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.79%	—	×1.150	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.86%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 20 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.10 (+1.00)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.100	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	4.94%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cody Bowker (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.18	24.6%	16.0%	227	-0.14	—	—	—
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	89
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	87
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	86
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	86
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	85
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	84
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	84
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	84
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	84
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	83
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	83
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	82
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	82
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	82
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	81
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	65	24.8%	8.7%	1.31	4.33
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Jeff Brantley ('88-'01, 9 WAR*)	4.3	72	24.3%*	10.0%*	1.43*	3.73*