Cody Bowker — OGILVIE

Cody Bowker P Clearwater Threshers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 212 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%24.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD3045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	24	22	95	396	128	30	11	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	24	22	95	396	128	30	11	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	PHI	12	10	40	169	64	20	6	83%	3.3	37.9%	11.8%	26.0%	3.6%	5.90	3.35	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	PHI	8	8	36	146	43	7	1	100%	4.5	29.5%	4.8%	24.7%	0.7%	3.28	1.60	—
2026	22	AA RAW	PHI	4	4	20	81	21	3	4	100%	5.0	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	4.9%	4.05	4.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	97	409	100	36	12	100%	5.4	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.0%	4.21	4.16	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	99	419	104	36	12	100%	5.5	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	3.0%	4.13	4.07	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	100	424	107	35	12	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	2.9%	4.07	4.02	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	100	424	107	35	12	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.2%	17.0%	2.9%	4.04	4.01	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	99	418	106	35	13	100%	6.2	25.2%	8.3%	16.9%	3.0%	4.04	4.04	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	96	405	102	34	13	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.5%	16.7%	3.1%	4.09	4.13	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	92	387	96	34	13	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	3.2%	4.19	4.26	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	86	364	89	33	13	100%	6.2	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	3.4%	4.34	4.44	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	80	339	82	32	12	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.4%	14.8%	3.7%	4.52	4.64	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	74	314	81	28	12	100%	6.2	25.7%	9.0%	16.7%	3.9%	4.57	4.60	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	68	288	73	27	12	100%	6.2	25.2%	9.4%	15.8%	4.2%	4.74	4.85	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	48	203	50	18	6	100%	5.3	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.2%	4.33	4.28	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	69	291	73	25	9	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	3.2%	4.25	4.19	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	82	346	87	29	11	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	3.2%	4.19	4.14	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	88	372	94	31	12	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.2%	17.0%	3.2%	4.16	4.13	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	89	376	95	31	12	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.3%	16.9%	3.2%	4.16	4.16	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	88	372	93	32	12	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.25	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	85	359	89	31	12	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	3.5%	4.32	4.39	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	81	342	84	31	13	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	3.7%	4.48	4.58	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	76	321	77	30	13	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.4%	14.8%	3.9%	4.67	4.79	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	71	300	77	27	13	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.0%	16.7%	4.2%	4.73	4.76	+0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	69	26	12	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.4%	15.8%	4.5%	4.91	5.02	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	842	3555	888	310	125	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	3.5%	4.38	4.03	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	74	30	100%	5.9	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	3.5%	4.38	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		24	22	95	396	97	35	14	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	831	205	73	29	92%	4.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.53	4.06	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cody Bowker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	24.0%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.08	24.9%	16.3%	297	-0.21	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	88
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	88
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	81
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	79
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	79
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	76
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	84	25.0%	8.7%	1.26	4.24
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98