AJ Russell — OGILVIE

AJ Russell P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 223 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%26.4%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3550

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	23	21	61	259	96	31	6	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	23	21	61	259	96	31	6	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TEX	11	11	27	107	43	11	1	100%	2.4	40.2%	10.3%	29.9%	0.9%	3.04	1.52	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TEX	12	10	34	152	53	20	5	83%	2.8	34.9%	13.2%	21.7%	3.3%	4.76	3.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	62	260	70	30	8	100%	5.6	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.32	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	63	266	72	29	8	100%	5.7	27.1%	11.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.20	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	64	270	74	29	8	100%	5.8	27.3%	10.6%	16.7%	2.9%	4.19	4.13	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	64	270	74	28	8	100%	5.8	27.4%	10.5%	16.8%	2.9%	4.14	4.11	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	63	266	73	28	8	100%	6.3	27.4%	10.6%	16.8%	3.0%	4.14	4.15	+0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	30	127	34	15	4	100%	6.0	26.8%	11.7%	15.1%	3.2%	4.52	4.44	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	44	186	50	20	6	100%	5.5	27.1%	11.0%	16.1%	3.2%	4.40	4.32	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	52	220	60	23	7	100%	5.8	27.3%	10.6%	16.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.25	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	56	236	65	25	7	100%	6.2	27.4%	10.5%	16.8%	3.1%	4.26	4.23	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	57	241	66	26	8	100%	5.7	27.4%	10.6%	16.8%	3.2%	4.26	4.27	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	239	1010	275	109	32	100%	5.8	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	3.2%	4.33	3.91	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	230	91	27	100%	5.8	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	3.2%	4.33	3.91	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		23	21	61	259	73	36	8	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	69	200	854	239	119	25	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Russell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	26.4%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.22	27.1%	16.0%	189	-0.30	—	—	—
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	84
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	80
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.15	394	78
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	78
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	77
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	77
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	76
Clayton Beeter R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	22	SP	3.87	28.6%	11.7%	3.1%	.306	4.27	26.4%	13.0%	245	+0.40	2.69	395	76
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	76
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	75
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	75
Randy Rodríguez R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	25.3%	12.8%	2.6%	.259	3.29	25.9%	15.1%	171	-0.71	1.99	336	73
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.82	20.3%	9.4%	253	+0.83	3.99	380	73
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	72
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	72
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	72
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	59	27.1%	11.1%	1.14	4.26
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19