AJ Russell — OGILVIE

AJ Russell P Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 223 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%25.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3550

CTRL—50

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	15	14	38	154	56	19	2	93%	2.5	27.2%	14.4%	12.8%	1.7%	2.84	3.54	+0.4
ROS	22	MLB	TEX	10	10	52	222	56	26	7	100%	5.2	25.2%	11.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
ROS	22	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.2%	11.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.49	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	TEX	—	—	90	376	112	45	9	—	—	29.8%	11.9%	17.8%	2.3%	3.79	4.08	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TEX	10	10	54	230	59	25	7	100%	5.5	25.8%	10.9%	14.9%	2.9%	4.36	4.29	+0.2
2028	24	MLB	TEX	10	10	56	236	62	24	7	100%	5.6	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.26	4.19	+0.2
2029	25	MLB	TEX	10	10	57	239	63	24	7	100%	5.7	26.4%	10.1%	16.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.13	+0.3
2030	26	MLB	TEX	9	9	57	239	63	24	7	100%	6.3	26.5%	10.1%	16.4%	2.9%	4.14	4.11	+0.3
2031	27	MLB	TEX	9	9	56	236	62	24	7	100%	6.2	26.5%	10.1%	16.3%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.3
2032	28	MLB	TEX	9	9	54	228	60	24	7	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	3.1%	4.20	4.23	+0.2
2033	29	MLB	TEX	9	9	52	218	57	23	7	100%	5.7	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	3.2%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2034	30	MLB	TEX	8	8	49	205	53	22	7	100%	6.1	25.8%	10.8%	14.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
2035	31	MLB	TEX	8	8	45	191	49	21	7	100%	5.7	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	3.6%	4.63	4.74	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	TEX	5	5	27	114	29	12	3	100%	5.4	25.8%	10.9%	14.9%	3.0%	4.38	4.31	+0.1
2028	24	MLB	TEX	7	7	39	165	43	17	5	100%	5.6	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.21	+0.2
2029	25	MLB	TEX	8	8	46	194	51	20	6	100%	5.8	26.4%	10.1%	16.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+0.2
2030	26	MLB	TEX	8	8	49	207	55	21	6	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.1%	16.4%	2.9%	4.16	4.13	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	TEX	8	8	50	211	56	21	6	100%	6.2	26.5%	10.1%	16.3%	3.0%	4.17	4.17	+0.2
2032	28	MLB	TEX	8	8	50	211	56	22	7	100%	6.2	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	3.1%	4.22	4.25	+0.2
2033	29	MLB	TEX	8	8	48	203	53	21	7	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	3.2%	4.32	4.38	+0.1
2034	30	MLB	TEX	8	8	46	194	50	21	7	100%	5.8	25.8%	10.8%	14.9%	3.4%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
2035	31	MLB	TEX	7	7	43	182	46	20	7	100%	6.1	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	3.7%	4.65	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			68	68	398	1680	439	176	53	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.5%	15.7%	3.1%	4.31	3.94	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	221	88	27	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.5%	15.7%	3.1%	4.31	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			15	14	38	154	42	22	3	93%	2.5	27.2%	14.4%	12.8%	1.7%	2.84	3.54	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—			79	74	200	811	220	117	13	93%	2.5	27.2%	14.4%	12.8%	1.7%	2.84	3.54	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Russell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	25.2%	11.7%	3.0%	—	4.20	26.1%	15.6%	167	-0.27	—	—	—
River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.1%	12.2%	2.1%	.321	3.86	20.4%	9.1%	134	+0.28	2.13	218	82
Drew Rasmussen R 2028 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	24.6%	12.6%	1.8%	.312	3.26	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.36	1.21	621	82
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	81
Michael Grove R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP	4.46	24.3%	9.5%	4.0%	.409	5.62	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.16	3.54	377	80
Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.46	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.00	3.03	213	80
Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	79
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	78
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.91	439	78
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	23.1%	10.8%	2.8%	.311	3.85	20.9%	11.1%	236	-0.19	3.12	482	77
Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.23	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.30	2.76	537	77
Clayton Beeter R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	28.6%	11.7%	3.4%	.306	4.30	27.1%	12.8%	245	+0.30	2.80	374	77
Sean Mooney R 2027 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP	3.45	30.2%	15.3%	1.8%	.250	4.82	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.37	3.45	102	76
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	22	SP	3.61	22.5%	12.8%	1.4%	.286	3.29	24.5%	11.4%	79	-0.32	3.12	132	76
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	75
James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.0%	15.2%	1.6%	.277	4.35	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.33	4.02	109	74
Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP	4.56	23.8%	7.9%	4.5%	.392	4.05	24.8%	9.6%	198	-0.51	3.53	281	73
Darren Bowen R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	22	SP-	3.93	19.0%	12.8%	1.5%	.236	5.29	15.2%	4.9%	205	+1.36	3.91	261	73
Ryan Jennings R 2028 · 3.29 FIP	24	SP-	3.29	23.4%	11.9%	1.2%	.316	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	109	+1.31	3.29	142	73
Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	21.0%	11.8%	3.7%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.29	4.43	306	73
Jeff Criswell R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	22	SP	4.20	18.5%	9.2%	2.7%	.242	5.37	22.2%	11.1%	306	+1.17	4.20	336	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	53	26.0%	10.6%	1.19	4.30
Matt Barnes ('23)	9	49	29.6%	10.8%	1.03	4.14
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Brad Boxberger ('23)	8	43	27.1%	11.7%	1.17	3.86
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40