AJ Russell

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 223 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#881ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	61	4.01	2.75	37.1%	12.0%	—	K 28.0% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.09
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.58	4.58	28.1%	14.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTEX	5	5	27	4.57	4.50	28.1%	12.9%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTEX	7	7	39	4.45	4.38	28.2%	12.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 5.2, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 82%

CompsRiver Ryan (age 23) · Drew Rasmussen (age 24) · James Proctor (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%28.1%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	61	259	96	31	6	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	61	259	96	31	6	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	61	259	96	31	6	91%	2.6	37.1%	12.0%	25.1%	2.3%	4.01	2.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.1%	14.3%	13.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	62	260	73	33	8	100%	5.6	28.1%	12.9%	15.3%	3.0%	4.45	4.38	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	58	246	69	30	7	100%	5.8	28.2%	12.0%	16.2%	3.0%	4.33	4.26	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	58	245	69	29	7	100%	5.8	28.1%	11.8%	16.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.24	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	57	239	67	28	7	100%	6.3	28.0%	11.8%	16.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	27	114	32	15	4	100%	5.4	28.1%	12.9%	15.3%	3.2%	4.57	4.50	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	39	165	46	20	5	100%	5.6	28.2%	12.0%	16.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.38	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	46	194	55	23	6	100%	5.8	28.1%	11.8%	16.3%	3.2%	4.40	4.36	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	48	203	57	24	7	100%	6.0	28.0%	11.8%	16.1%	3.3%	4.40	4.40	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	27	159	673	189	81	22	100%	5.9	28.1%	12.1%	16.0%	3.2%	4.44	4.02	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	237	102	28	100%	5.9	28.1%	12.1%	16.0%	3.2%	4.44	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		23	21	61	259	73	36	8	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	69	200	854	239	119	25	91%	2.6	28.0%	13.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.09	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 34 IPFIP 3.63 → 5.01 (+1.38)K% 34.9% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.87%	—	×0.770	26.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×1.150	15.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.11%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 27 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.79 (+1.27)K% 40.2% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.19%	—	×0.740	29.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.28%	—	×1.180	12.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Russell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.30	28.1%	15.9%	178	-0.28	—	—	—
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	82
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	82
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	75
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	74
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	73
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	73
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	73
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	73
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	72
Clayton Beeter R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	30.0%	14.5%	3.7%	.327	3.97	26.7%	12.9%	217	-0.45	2.60	395	71
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	23.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	3.95	19.2%	8.3%	243	-0.42	3.69	538	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	70
Carlos Tavera R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	25.4%	15.9%	4.0%	.285	5.34	19.1%	4.1%	180	+0.20	3.85	263	70
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	70
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	70
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	70
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	70
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	70
Yorman Galindez R 2024 · 3.63 FIP	21	SP	3.63	28.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.286	5.12	15.9%	1.2%	67	+1.49	3.63	201	69
Griff McGarry R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	29.0%	15.2%	2.9%	.252	4.12	26.1%	8.5%	157	-0.08	2.46	282	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	28.1%	12.6%	1.16	4.39
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*